CFP rankings takeaways: What we discovered and what it indicates
8:47 PM ET ESPN personnel A two-loss team has actually never made the College Football Playoff, but at No. 5 this
week, LSU(9-2)inched one step more detailed to making history.In the most significant decision from an otherwise predictable top 6, the CFP selection committee considered the Tigers a notch above one-loss USC, which is coming off its best win of the season, a 48-45 roadway victory against No. 18 UCLA. The Trojans likewise have a CFP Top 25 win versus No. 21 Oregon State, but the committee bumped LSU up one spot after Tennessee lost 63-38 to still-unranked South Carolina and dropped from No. 5 to No. 10. That same Tennessee group beat LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge.LSU, though, has wins against No. 7 Alabama and No. 20 Ole Miss, and the 32-31 overtime success versus the Tide on Nov. 5 is clearly carrying weight in the space, in addition to the reality the Tigers have clinched the SEC West and will deal with Georgia in the SEC national championship. With LSU on the bubble, there ought to be little doubt the Tigers can end up in the top 4 on Choice Day on Dec. 4 if they beat Texas A&M on Saturday and Georgia in the SEC champion.”It turned up over and over once again to make certain, and there’s reasons for both teams, but the committee at the end of the day saw the wins over Alabama and Mississippi as more powerful than the wins over UCLA and Oregon State,”selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said.”One area we still have concerns on is the strength of the defense of USC, and looking at it in its entirety, we believe that LSU was worthy of to be ranked 5 and SC 6.” The possibility of LSU winning the SEC should worry every other contender– especially the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game Saturday– since it sustains the possibility of two SEC teams completing in the
top four.Again.Here’s what the fourth of 6 rankings implies to the greatest rivalry games of Week 13, ranked in order of their greatest impact: Dive to: Anger Index|12-team bracket|Résumés | 1. Michigan at Ohio State If Michigan wins: The Wolverines win the Big Ten East and position themselves as the Big Ten’s leading playoff contender. Ohio State would need Georgia to run the table and beat LSU, getting rid of the possibility of 2 SEC teams(it’s happened two times prior to: 2017 and 2021), and it would assist the Buckeyes significantly if Notre Dame beats USC and knocks out the Pac-12.
Ohio State would be relying on wins against Notre Dame and Penn State to impress the choice committee to get in at the expenditure of a one-loss ACC champ Clemson. Ohio State has 5 wins over current FPI top-40 teams– by an average of 22.4 PPG.If Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes would win the Big Ten East and emerge as the league’s leading playoff contender. Michigan would require its win versus No. 11 Penn State and game film to defeat a Power 5 conference champ. Just Like Ohio State, Michigan requires Georgia to win the SEC and eliminate LSU and the possibility of two SEC teams, and it requires USC to lose to Notre Dame and get rid of the Pac-12. Michigan’s
greatest issue is its nonconference schedule( Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn), which is the 2nd weakest in the FBS. Today, though, Michigan is No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Clemson is No. 6. If Michigan loses, it would have 4 wins versus groups ranked currently in the leading 40 of FPI (PSU, Illinois, Iowa and Maryland )and 2 of those 4 wins were by one possession.The NEW #CFBPlayoff top 25 rankings heading into rivalry week Which match are you eagerly anticipating? pic.twitter.com/HPRCgNRmbd!.?.!— ESPN College Football(@ESPNCFB) November 23, 2022 2. Notre Dame at USC If Notre Dame wins: The Pac-12 is removed
from the playoff since its champ would have at least two losses, and USC is
currently looking up at a two-loss group. A Notre Dame win would likewise
help Ohio State’s résumé, offering the Buckeyes another small boost in case they do not beat Michigan.If USC wins: The Pac-12’s hopes would remain strong, and USC could leap LSU and crack the top four in the committee’s fifth ranking after the loser of Ohio State-Michigan falls out. Even if USC wins the Pac-12, however, and ends its season with
3 straight wins versus
CFP Leading 25 challengers, there could still be a debate. USC needs Georgia to run the table and remove LSU, along with the possibility of 2 SEC groups in the leading four. The best-case scenario for USC would be for Ohio State to win the Huge 10, because the Trojans are more likely to win a résumé battle against Michigan as runner-up. With Notre Dame as a typical opponent with Ohio State, that might get challenging depending upon how the game plays out. If Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in, one-loss USC appears to have separated itself from one-loss Clemson in the committee meeting room. The concern would be if the opponents in their particular conference championship games alter that perception, and if the committee is bothered more by Clemson’s typical offense, or USC’s porous defense. “I think we’re trying to find a stronger showing by the defense, “Corrigan said.”As a committee, a more dominant win in those situations to continue to move forward. “ 3. South Carolina at Clemson If Clemson wins: The Tigers will prevent removal but stay a fringe CFP team in need of aid beyond an ACC title. No team ranked lower than No. 7 at this point in the season has actually ever made the playoff. Clemson’s win against No. 16
Florida State continues to assist the Tigers, and North Carolina dropped only four spots after its awful loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday. It likewise assisted Clemson that Louisville popped into the ranking this
week at No. 25. Clemson could finish the season with 3 wins versus CFP Top 25 groups however will be dinged by the committee for its 35-14 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend. If Clemson surfaces in the top 4, that 21-point deficit would be the third-largest regular-season loss by a CFP semifinalist. The loss to Notre Dame, though, could be one element that keeps the Tigers out due to the fact that the committee likewise compares typical opponents, and USC and Ohio State likewise will have played Notre Dame. In order to have a practical chance, Clemson requires to run the table and wish for some mix or all of the following: a TCU loss, Georgia to run the table and win the SEC, and a two-loss Pac-12 champion.The committee has some questions about what it sees from Clemson’s offense.”Will Shipley from Clemson is a vibrant player for them, “Corrigan stated.”I think they have actually had possibly a bit of ups and downs with concerns to the quarterback position that we have actually talked about in the room.”If South Carolina wins: The ACC is gotten rid of. Clemson and Coastal Division champ North Carolina would each go into the conference title game with 2 losses, and neither of them has actually played well enough or has the résumé to make up for that. Anger index Will Shipley and Clemson might discover themselves ACC champions but out of the playoff. Eakin Howard/Getty Images Throughout the first couple of rankings reveals, a typical refrain is used: These rankings don’t truly imply anything.Well, at this moment, that idea can mainly be forgotten because while there’s still much to be chosen, there’s likewise little precedent for a team not currently in the top 4 or just beyond it making the playoff. And offered the absence of considerable shake-ups to the rankings without a team losing(see: USC remains
behind LSU this week in spite of its big win over UCLA), the committee has mainly chosen who it believes is best, and a couple of teams have a real reason to argue with those choices.1. Clemson Tigers( No. 8)Let’s do a little blind résumé review here.Team A: 10-1, No. 6 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins by a TD or more over teams ranked in the leading half of FBS, two wins vs. presently ranked groups, loss to a top-15 opponent.Team B: 10-1, No. 9 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win by a TD or more over groups ranked in the top half of FBS, 2 wins vs. currently ranked teams, loss to a top-15 opponent.Extremely comparable profiles, but you ‘d provide Team A the slight edge, right? Well, Team A is Clemson. Group B is USC, ranked 2 spots greater and far better placed to make the playoff if the status quo mostly holds.Why is Clemson dinged in such a way the Trojans aren’t? Well, USC lost by an indicate Utah, which was ranked at the time. Clemson lost by 21 to a Notre Dame group that was not ranked at the
time. Context matters.2 Associated Here’s some extra context: Clemson surrendered 21 points to Notre Dame on two turnovers and an obstructed punt. USC was in fact +1 in turnover margin against Utah(though it
didn’t develop into points ). There’s a genuine ability involved in turnover margin, but there’s also a great deal of luck and situational differences included, too. Play a game devoid of turnovers and basically Clemson played Notre Dame about the exact same way USC played Utah. However, naturally, those turnovers took place, and a 21-point loss is still even worse than a one-point defeat. However if we’re splitting hairs here, it deserves considering all the context, not simply the surface-level metrics.Of course, there’s another problem with Clemson that pundits have discussed: The Tigers aren’t doing anything particularly well. USC’s offense is astonishing, even if the defense is a mess.
… fine. There’s very little to get thrilled about– even if there’s absolutely nothing to specifically critique either.So let’s look at another comparison: Group A: 10-1, 5-1 vs. FPI leading 50, 36.5 points per game and 19.7 points per game permitted vs. FBS enemies, 48.7 %offensive success rate vs. FBS, 62.7 %defensive success rate, five wins by more than a touchdown.Team B: 10-1, 5-1 vs. FPI top 50, 34.7 points per game and 20.8 points per game allowed vs. FBS enemies, 47.2 %offending success rate vs. FBS, 62.6%protective success rate, seven wins by more than a touchdown Who’s been the more impressive team? Maybe a small edge for Group A, but both quite evenly matched, right? Well, Group B is this year’s Clemson group. Group A is Clemson through 11 games in 2016, when the Tigers went on to win a nationwide championship.Clemson might not be terrific at anything at the moment, however it’s pretty good at almost everything. And Clemson’s loss might look awful, however when the Tigers have prevented turnovers, they’ve handled their competitors with ease.And yet, here they are, ranked No. 8– a ranking that seems to come with a message from the committee. Clemson will not only require to triumph, however it needs to have a great deal of other things go right if it wishes to make the playoff. No team ranked outside the top 7 at this moment has ever made the final four.2. Tennessee Volunteers(No. 10)
When South Carolina hangs 63 on you, there’s truly no chance to put a bow on that and make it look good. It was a completely bad loss for the Volunteers. However the committee is supposed to avoid recency bias and take a look at the totality of the season
, not simply what took place last week. Which brings us to this essential point: Tennessee, LSU and Alabama all have two losses. Tennessee has wins over both LSU and Alabama. Alabama and LSU are both ranked ahead of Tennessee. How will Saturday’s leading games impact the College Football Playoff go after? What are the current chances for the leading 4? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Inspect back weekly as the odds are upgraded following that week’s games. If the committee’s point is that Tennessee was overrated prior to and the South Carolina game exposed some previously unidentified defect, then OK. Dropping the Vols makes good sense. But then the losses suffered by LSU and Alabama at the hands of Tennessee must be reassessed, too.There’s no outright mathematics, no best formula for creating playoff rankings. However the most apparent and simplest metric is head-to-head performance, since for all we can state we believe we understand about groups, absolutely nothing matters more than what in fact happens on the field. So when all else is equal, head-to-head must be the ultimate line of separation. Instead, the committee has decided that one bad loss to South Carolina is more significant than head-to-head wins over two groups it ranks higher.3. Washington Huskies(No. 13)That case we simply produced Tennessee? Copy and paste that here. Washington has the very same record as Oregon, beat Oregon head-to-head, and while it also has a worse general loss, it has the better general résumé.4. Coastal Carolina, Troy and UTSA(all unranked )There’s no good argument for a Group of 5 team to make the playoff this season, as there has
been in the majority of previous years. However the race for a New Year’s Six bid remains broad open. The only problem is, the committee has actually basically decided that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference deserves the quote, wholly disregarding UTSA(8-2 with only a two-point loss to Houston and a loss to No. 23 Texas). Perhaps the dull efficiency of Conference USA explains that oversight, but the Sun Belt has actually been rather great this season, and yet Coastal Carolina(9-1 )and Troy (9-2 with a four-point loss on a last-second Hail Mary to Appalachian State and a roadway loss to No. 20 Ole Miss )get no love either. There’s no specific finest team outside the Power 5 this year, however it seems like what might quickly be a six-or seven-team race for the New Year’s 6 spot is being come down to a number of games deciding the American instead.5. Minnesota (unranked)We
‘re shedding no tears for the Gophers. Lose to Iowa, and make no pity. That’s a simple guideline. But it’s worth pointing out that Minnesota is 7-4, ranked No. 17 in SP +and No. 21 in FPI. No unranked team in either metric ranks greater.
However, do not lose to Iowa. How a 12-team playoff would look Everybody with the power to broaden the College Football Playoff desires the field to grow to 12 groups in time for the 2024 season.But presently, expansion is arranged to start in 2026. So while conversations advance how to go up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team
playoff would look today based upon the already-determined design launched by the commissioners and presidents.The field will be composed of the selection committee’s 6 highest-ranked conference champs and its next six highest-ranked groups. The 4 highest-ranked conference champs will earn the front runners and a first-round bye. The other 8 teams will play in the preliminary, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.Here’s what the playoff would appear like if the 12-team format were in location today: Seeds with byes 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3
. TCU 4. USC Staying seeds (conference champs in vibrant) 5. Michigan 6. LSU 7. Alabama 8. Clemson 9. Oregon 10. Tennessee 11. Penn State 12. Tulane First-round games No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 LSU No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Alabama No. 9 Oregon at No.
8 Clemson Quarterfinal games No. 9 Oregon-No. 8 Clemson winner vs. No. 1 Georgia No. 10 Tennessee-No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 LSU winner vs. No. 3 TCU No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Michigan winner vs. No. 4 USC Leading résumés No. 1 Georgia Record
: 11-0|SOS: 43|SOR: No. 2 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National Championship: No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18 No. 2 Ohio State Record: 11-0|SOS: 54|SOR: No. 3 Greatest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State, 44-31 Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP Championship Game: No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24 No. 3 Michigan Record: 11-0|SOS
: 74|SOR: 4 Most significant win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State, 41-17
Last playoff appearance: 2022 playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl:
No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan
No. 4 TCU Record: 11-0|SOS: 35|SOR: 1 Most significant win: Nov. 12 at Texas, 17-10 Last playoff look: Never ever No. 5 LSU went up to No. 5 in this week’s ranking, providing the Tigers a chance to make the CFP. John Korduner/Icon Sportswire Record: 9-2|SOS: 15|SOR: 8 Most significant win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama, 32-31 Last playoff look: 2020 CFP Championship Game: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25