By the numbers: Breaking down College Football Playoff situations

With 2 weeks left, there’s 8 groups for 4 spots.That’s the extremely streamlined variation of the College Football Playoff landscape right now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Obviously, the positions of those eight groups are extremely different from one another, so that’s where we’re going to depend on the Predictor– which utilizes FPI forecasts and anticipates the committee’s selection procedure based on its past habits– to answer essential concerns about the playoff race as we near the surface line.Who gets in if everyone wins out?Everyone, in this case, is: Georgia, Ohio State( after beating an 11-0 Michigan in Week 13), TCU, Clemson and USC.That would make three undefeated slam dunks in the first teams noted above and lead to a battle for the final area between Michigan, USC and Clemson.This is close! And it would be an interesting choice for the committee. Here’s where the Playoff Predictor lands: Michigan: 52%USC: 31%Clemson: 23%( Note: those numbers add

as much as more than 100%on the off-chance the committee chooses to overlook TCU). So why does the model lean toward one-loss Michigan over the two one-loss conference champs? Two key

elements: résumé and team quality.Outside of the conference championship, we forecast that an 11-1 Michigan would actually have a slightly

remarkable Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC or 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally close with the Trojans and might flip. Michigan is likewise, in FPI’s mind,

the best group of the three– by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in FPI, while Clemson and USC path at Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.So from the model’s viewpoint it sees a team with the better FPI and SOR, which’s generally the team that gets the much better ranking. But the championship game muddies the waters, which is why this isn’t clear at all.What if Michigan, rather of Ohio State, winds up 13-0 in the above scenario?That establishes what should be a relatively simple selection process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State as a heavy favorite to land that last place.Ohio State: 79%USC: 16%Clemson: 14%The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked team in FPI and likewise would have a slightly stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, indicating Ohio State would also lead USC and Clemson in the résumé metric.What takes place if Michigan or Ohio State lose in the Big Ten national championship? 2 Related This is too not likely for us to do a full-blown scenario, however I think we can get the general idea by simply plugging in, for beginners, an Ohio State loss in that game– against whoever the challenger may be( Iowa, Purdue and Illinois all still have an opportunity to win the Big 10 West ). According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 94 %possibility to get into the playoff in

this situation. That would drop a little bit if Clemson, TCU and USC all triumphed, however it still would be

terribly most likely Ohio State gets in.For Michigan, it’s a pretty comparable story: A loss in the Big 10 national championship– which the Wolverines can just get to by beating Ohio State initially– still gives them an 86 %chance at the playoff. Again, that would drop a little bit if everything else broke them in other places, but they ‘d most likely still get in.Is a one-loss TCU finished?The Predictor states: not always, especially if the loss is to Iowa State, and after that TCU goes on to win the Huge 12 championship. At that point, TCU would be a one-loss conference champion with a typical strength of record rank of 2.7. That’s the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results somewhere else, the Predictor states TCU would have a 71%shot at the playoff in this area, which I believe may be a bit of a shock.This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC also triumph. However from the model’s point of view, TCU would have plainly the best résumé of those

three groups at that point.Is there any chance Alabama sneaks in? * Whispers * Yes, there’s a chance.We mentioned there are eight teams with a chance at the playoff at the top and have spoken about 6 of them so far. The seventh is LSU, which can get in by winning out. The 8th is Alabama. Consider this situation: – Georgia wins the SEC – Ohio State wins out – Clemson, TCU and USC all lose in conference national championship In this circumstance there are 3 groups virtually certain to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU over Alabama 46%to 39 %, but it’s close! And if we offer TCU a loss versus Iowa State,

too, then Alabama would be the

preferred for that 4th spot.Is the Predictor exaggerating Alabama’s possibilities to reach the CFP at 12% right now? Most likely by a little bit. However is it impossible the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.

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