Shooting, missing out on and finding (in the numbers) a men’s nationwide
10:47 AM ET Kyle SoppeESPN Analytics are a tricky thing and this tournament is
evidence of it. We saw
Gonzaga develop a play for a deep 3-pointer late in a one-point game. Watch a game for five minutes and you’ll see a fast break with players stopping at the 3-point line as if stepping inside the arc is reaching lava. I get it and the mathematics is strong given that these shots are worth 50% more than shots inside the arc. But should we be all-in on raw amount of deep shots as this tournament ends? Or need to we be prioritizing quality when attempting to pin down a winner?Editor’s Picks Four groups remain after all the mayhem, made shots and missed chances. One method or another, the UConn Huskies, San Diego State Aztecs, Miami Hurricanes and the Florida Atlantic Owls have survived and we are now entrusted with trying to determine whose season ends with a win. Does it look like selecting winners is a difficult task? Yes, however that does not imply there isn’t a little analytical support.Here is how typically the winning group from a tournament game has inspected each of the picked statistical boxes: Winning groups’success More 3PA Higher 3P% More FTA Higher feet%41.4 %70.7 %67.2 %63.8 % If you have actually been viewing the games, these numbers hold. This has very much been a quality-over-quantity tournament in terms of shooting from range and if you can get to the free toss line, you remain in a good
the staying 4 teams shoot the ball this season compared to the typical competition winner(by game): Picture by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images Final 4 team averages Team 3PA 3P%FTA FT %San Diego State 19.9 34.6 18.7 72.7 Florida Atlantic 26.4 36.5 17.4 71.8 Miami 20.4 36.9 18.5 77.8 UConn 25.1 36.3 18.4 76.0 Avg Winning Group 20.3 34.0 18.4 74.7 At a glance, Miami’s shooting acumen with a relatively low volume of triples attempted is appealing. Could the large space in between 3PA and FTA per game doom FAU prior to the Owls are able polish off a storybook run? It
‘s certainly possible. But let’s home in on
the 3-point shooting, as
that is how this era of hoops is specified
. From that first
table, we learned that 3P%
has been(unsurprisingly
)tied to success this tournament
and that winning groups are
, usually, taking fewer triples than their challengers. Great. So which of the staying 4 teams fit that
profile the most often? Pleased you asked: Final Four team averages Group 3P%Edge just Fewer 3PA
just
BOTH
San Diego State 21.6
%21.6 %40.5%Miami 27.8%22.2%36.1%Florida Atlantic 50.0%10.5% 10.5%UConn 67.6%5.4 %2.7%Now things get interesting. UConn tends to shoot more threes than its opponents and cash in at a greater rate which, on the surface area, feels optimal. And it is. But it also leaves the door open for some drawback– what if the Huskies go cold? That would be a high-volume problem whereas Miami goes the low-volume and high-percentage route a lot more frequently(cleaning 36%). You can analyze this data however you ‘d like in an effort to solve the final three games of a ridiculous tournament. What we’re stating is that a San Diego State vs.