Ranking the FCS playoff field in tiers: Can anyone stop
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Personnel WriterNov 24, 2023, 07:00 AM ET Close Bill Connelly is a personnel author for ESPN.com.South Dakota State is making
things look terribly easy in college football’s 2nd neighborhood. After weathering one of the sport’s most dynastic recent runs from a bitter rival– North Dakota State’s nine FCS titles from 2011 to 2021– the Jackrabbits lastly had their minute, rolling to the 2022 nationwide title. They have actually won 25 games in a row with just three one-score surfaces. In their very first season under Jimmy Rogers after John Stiegelmeier’s retirement, they’ve barely been challenged.The Jacks are an overwhelming favorite to win a second title in a row.
At the start of the FCS playoffs, SP +offers the Jacks a 57%opportunity of winning the title. That leaves just 43%for the other 23 teams.Can anybody stop a runaway Jackrabbit? Twenty-three groups will try, and with the leading eight seeds receiving a bye, 16 begin their playoff journeys Saturday.Saturday’s first-round games: – Sacramento State at North Dakota(1 p.m.). SP+forecast: UND by 6.4 – NC Central at Richmond(2
p.m.). SP+forecast:
Richmond by 4.8 – Lafayette at Delaware (2 p.m.). SP+ forecast: Delaware by
8.9 – Gardner-Webb at Mercer (3 p.m.). SP+ projection: Mercer by 9.1
– Nicholls at Southern Illinois( 3 p.m.). SP+projection: SIU by 18.1 – Chattanooga at Austin Peay(3 p.m. ). SP +forecast: APSU by 7.9
– Drake at North Dakota State (3:30 p.m. ). SP +forecast: NDSU by 34.8
– Duquesne at Youngstown State (5 p.m. ). SP +projection: YSU by 19.2 If I
have actually stated it as soon as, I’ve stated it a thousand times: The more you learn more about college
football’s long tail, and the more you immerse yourself into things beyond the sport
‘s 10-12 blue bloods, the much better you feel about college football. The FCS playoffs are remarkable, even if we think we understand ahead of time who’s going to win. So let’s be familiar with the contenders, from the magnificent SDSU Jackrabbits to the scrappy, scholarship-free Drake Bulldogs. The heavy preferred 1. South Dakota State(11-0)SP+rank: first Advancement chances
: 96.7%to reach the quarterfinals, 56.8%to win the title The Jackrabbits have actually won 25 games in a row against FCS teams. They played six playoff groups this year and beat them by approximately 37-12. Their marquee stars
are the exact same ones who specified in 2015’s title run– quarterback Mark Gronowski, running
back Isaiah Davis, receivers Jadon and Jaxon Janke. They are the best group in the nation, and it will take an enormous upset to take them down.The most likely challengers 2. North Dakota State(8-3)SP +rank: 2nd Development chances: 51.0%to reach the quarterfinals, 9.1%to win the title The Bison lost 3 times! North Dakota and South Dakota State both stomped
them! How are they still second in SP+ and the No. 2 favorite? Due To The Fact That(A)nobody else has actually taken the mantle– even No. 2 seed Montana fell into a
funk for a bit– and(B)because their eight wins were by approximately 28 points. They’re wobbly, however quarterback Camera Miller is still good, and they still look mostly like NDSU. 3. Montana(10-1)SP +rank: 3rd Improvement odds: 69.4% to reach the quarterfinals, 8.1%to win the title The Grizzlies fell to Northern Arizona and barely got past a poor
Idaho State group early in the season. But after a number of tight wins, they won a series of blowouts and stomped rival
Montana State to end the season. Linebackers Riley Wilson and Levi Janacaro are stars, and the Montana defense gets meaner by the week. Bobby Hauck’s Grizzlies are peaking at the correct time. 4. Montana State( 8-3)SP+rank: fourth Improvement odds: 49.0%
to reach the quarterfinals, 6.6%to win the title Till last week’s competition loss, I felt like Montana State was the group with the most upside and a lot of hope of removing South Dakota State. The Bobcats have 2 high-ceiling quarterbacks( Sean Chambers and Tommy Mellott). All their running backs average more than 6 backyards per bring. The defense is a sacks maker. They’ll have to move past last week’s frustration, though: NDSU will likely be pertaining to Bozeman in the round of 16. (That’s right: Among SDSU’s biggest risks will have taken another one out before the quarterfinals. )It wouldn’t be a total shock
5. Villanova (9-2 )SP+rank: fifth Advancement odds: 72.1%to reach the quarterfinals, 4.4%to win the title An impressive Villanova team fell to SDSU in the quarterfinals in
2021, then slipped to
6-5 last season. However Mark Ferrante’s Wildcats are well balanced and crammed and fell just to Albany and UCF back in September. Five of their past six wins were by 21 or more. Unfortunately, by drawing the No. 8 seed, they are most likely due a quarterfinal matchup with the mighty Jackrabbits. 6. Albany(9-3)SP+ rank: 6th Advancement chances: 73.2%to reach the quarterfinals, 3.9%to win the title In their 25th year in FCS, the Great Danes have their best-ever FCS group. They lost to FBS groups Marshall and Hawai’i by a combined 15 points, and they have actually won their past 5 games by an average of 35-12. Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger is prolific, and linemen Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon have combined for an incredible 36.5 TFLs and 23.5 sacks in 12 games. And they would not have to play among the competition faves till the semis.Editor’s Picks 2 Related 7. Idaho(8-3) SP +rank: 12th Advancement chances: 66.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 2.7 %to win the title The Big Sky slate is relentless, however after blowing out Nevada in September, Idaho removed both Sacramento State and Montana State in the Kibbie Dome and drew the No. 4 seed. Second-year
coach Jason Eck has actually turned the Vandal program around with speed. 8. South Dakota(9-2)SP +rank: 14th Development chances: 63.8 %to reach the quarterfinals, 1.9%to win the title Bob Nielson’s Coyotes have actually lost just to SDSU and Missouri. They have actually won only one playoff
game because moving up to FCS in
2008, and a middling
offense will ultimately journey them up. However the defense is packed with sure tacklers and a range of pass-rushers(especially end Brendan Webb ). 9. Delaware (8-3)SP +rank: eighth Development chances: 24.1 % to reach the quarterfinals, 1.6%to win the title Approved, entering the playoffs on the back of a 35-7 loss to Villanova isn’t great, but the Blue Hens’assaulting defense comes at you in waves, and their attacking perceptiveness could make them a handful against Montana in a possible second-round match. 10. Furman(9-2 )SP+rank: 17th Advancement chances: 57.8 %to reach the quarterfinals, 1.3% to win the title Previous Furman lineman Clay Hendrix has the Paladins in the playoffs
for the 4th time in six years, and while they,
too, tripped up last week– 19-13 to Wofford– the 1988 national champs have a run-heavy offense, a TFL-heavy defense and a first-round bye.OK, yeah, it would be a shock 11. Southern Illinois (7-4)SP+rank: 18th Advancement chances: 32.0% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.9%to win the title The 1983
champs won championship game in the
2021 spring and fall seasons. Nick Hill, in his eighth season in Carbondale however still just 38, doesn’t have his finest offense this season. However the defense, led by ultra-disruptive safety P.J. Jules, is unrelenting. 12. Austin Peay(9-2)SP +rank: 15th Improvement odds: 30.8% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.8%to win the title From 2010 to’16, APSU won a total of 8 games. In the last 4 complete seasons, the Guvs have actually won an average
of 8.3. This significantly effective program has an almost 1,200-yard rush in Jevon Jackson and one of the more explosive passing attacks in the country. Get your preferred live sports, stories and originals with ESPN+,
Disney+and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today! 13. Youngstown State (7-4)SP+rank: 16th Improvement odds: 26.9%
to reach the quarterfinals, 0.6%to win the title The Penguins reached the title game in 2016 but hadn’t
been back to the playoffs considering that. In 2023, though, Doug Phillips ‘team walloped SIU, among others, an entered into the field thanks to strong strength of schedule. 14. North Dakota(7-4 )SP+rank: 22nd Development odds: 25.5%
to reach the quarterfinals, 0.5%to win the title Bubba Schweigert’s Combating Hawks are making their fourth playoff look in five years thanks mostly to a cathartic 49-24 blowout of North Dakota State. Quarterback Tommy Schuster is battle-tested; hell, the whole team is– they play in the Missouri Valley after all.
15. Richmond(8-3)SP+ rank
: 25th Improvement chances: 17.4% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.3% to win the title
The 2008 national champs have actually won just one playoff game in the last 7 years, but after an 0-2 start this season the Spiders have actually won 8 of nine and upset William & Mary recently to snag a share of the CAA title (and possibly take the People’s playoff bid too).
Simply leaving the preliminary would be awesome
16. North Carolina Central (9-2
)SP+rank: 30th Development odds: 9.5% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1 %to win the title The Eagles were quickly the best overall team in the MEAC, but a shocking blowout loss to Howard handed the conference title (and Celebration Bowl quote) over to the Bison. So NCCU had to go for the FCS playoffs instead. There are worse consolation rewards.
17. Lafayette (9-2) SP+rank: 26th Improvement chances: 6.5% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1 %to win the title Holy Cross was among the best overall teams in FCS, however Lafayette stole the Crusaders’ playoff bid with a 38-35 upset. The Leopards will ride running back Jamar Curtis (and his 1,333 yards) as far as he can take them.
18. Mercer(8-3)SP+ rank: 31st Improvement chances: 2.9% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1 %to win the title This is the very first playoff appearance for the Bears, who restored their football program in 2013 after 7 inactive years. End Solomon Zubairu and linebacker Ken Standley power a disruptive, and havoc-heavy defense.
19. Chattanooga(7-4 )SP+
rank: 28th Development odds: 11.4%to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1 %to win the title The Mocs ended a six-year playoff dry spell with aggressive passing from Chase Artopeus (14.3 backyards per completion) and the dynamite pass-rushing duo of Jay Person and Ben Brewton. A friendly draw provides good quarterfinal chances.
20. Sacramento State(7-4)SP+ rank: 29th Advancement chances: 10.7%to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1 %to win the title Andy Thompson’s Hornets were just.500 after a 3-0 start (which featured a win over previous SSU coach Troy Taylor), but an offense that averages 30.1 points per game and 6.0 backyards per play will still give them a fighting opportunity to win a playoff game or more.
21. Nicholls (6-4)SP+ rank: 70th Improvement chances: 1.7%to reach the quarterfinals, An upset win over Incarnate Word put the Colonels in the field of 24 and left the 9-2 Cardinals out. If Nicholls wins a couple of games, it will likely be due to the fact that of opportunism in the turnovers department. They choose off a lot of passes.
22. Duquesne(7-4)SP+ rank: 72nd Improvement chances: 1.0% to reach the quarterfinals, The Dukes have actually won as many Orange Bowls (one, in 1937) as FCS championship game (2018) and fell to the only playoff group they played this year (Delaware). However Darius Perrantes’ all-or-nothing death (17.9 backyards per completion, 18 INTs) makes them a little bit of a wild card.
23. Gardner-Webb(7-4)SP+rank: 52nd Improvement chances: 0.5% to reach the quarterfinals, The Runnin’ Bulldogs have won five in a row and bring to the table what every set of early-round championship game requires: track-meet capacity. They have actually scored at least 30 points seven times and enabled a minimum of 30 6 times.
24. Drake(8-3)SP + rank: 87th
Improvement odds: 0.1% to reach the quarterfinals,
Winners of the nonscholarship Pioneer League, the Bulldogs are making their very first playoff appearance. It probably will not be a long stay– their 2 games against playoff groups (SDSU and North Dakota) resulted in a 125-14 scoring margin– so let’s celebrate the 1949 Salad Bowl champions (Drake 14, Arizona 13) while we can.