Pelton: How my NBA draft projections work

  • Kevin PeltonJun 19, 2025, 09:00 AM ET

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    • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
    • Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
    • Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

Three primary factors go into my projections for the NBA draft:

All three of those factors have helped predict how well college and international players will perform in the NBA. Let’s take a closer look at them.

The last five seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Projected performance

For college and international players alike, my projections start with translating what players have done before with what they will do in the NBA for 14 core statistics: 2-point percentage; 3-point percentage; free throw percentage; offensive and defensive rebound percentage; assists; steals and fouls per 100 team plays; blocks per 100 2-point attempts; percentage of individual plays devoted to 2-point, 3-point and free throw attempts; turnovers; and usage rate.

Some stats tend to decline once players enter the league more than others. For example, free throw percentage rarely changes much, but players shoot much worse percentages from the field. For college players, this process also adjusts for strength of schedule to put players who faced different levels of competition on a level playing field.

Utilizing multiple seasons of data yields better projections than looking solely at the most recent season. In fact, for college players I’ve found that earlier seasons tend to project NBA performance better than more recent seasons because older prospects no longer have the same experience advantage in the NBA. So the player’s most recent season is weighted two times, the season before that (if available) three times, and two seasons before that five times. The weights are opposite for international prospects, who haven’t demonstrated the same pattern because they are playing against older opponents.

The last factor in the projections is regressing performance to positional averages for NBA rookies (for college prospects) and replacement-level performance (for international players). This helps account for outliers, particularly for stats that tend to fluctuate, such as 3-point percentage. As a sophomore at Arizona, Derrick Williams shot 56.8 percent on 74 3-point attempts. Williams has made 29.9 percent of his 3s during his NBA career.

It doesn’t make sense to regress a point guard to the same assist rate or block rate as a center, so this is the one place where positions affect my projections. This tends to have more impact for players who saw limited action in college or overseas than experienced players. It also can be problematic for versatile players, such as Ben Simmons, whose stat lines don’t look like any one particular position.

WARP projections

The statistics-only version of my projections estimates the wins above replacement player (WARP) that a prospect will average during his first five seasons in the league, adjusted to favor immediate projection by discounting performance in future years.

Editor’s Picks

To calculate this, I’ve used past players in my database — which is largely complete back through the 2006 draft and includes a handful of players back through 2003 for whom per-play college stats are available — to run a model projecting WARP based on the player’s projected win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) as a rookie and his age.

Because players tend to develop through around age 27, their age makes a large impact on their projections. All other things being equal, each additional year of age tends to reduce a player’s projected NBA value by about 0.5 WARP per season.

Since 2018, the WARP projections have included a higher replacement level for centers and power forwards than perimeter players — particularly wings. Note that this change has not been applied retroactively to past projections before 2018.

Consensus projections

Inspired by draft analyst Layne Vashro’s Humble model (Vashro is now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the parent company of the Denver Nuggets), in 2015 I introduced consensus projections that also include the league’s assessment of a prospect’s talent. For past prospects, I measure this with where they were actually drafted. For current prospects, I estimate this using their rank in our top 100.

Using the actual draft slot plays a factor in subjective scouting analysis and improves projections, so I tend to use it as my primary ranking of players, while also showing the stats-only projections when possible.

Former projections

To give an idea of how my projections have worked — and when they haven’t — here are the rankings for the 2006 through 2019 drafts, based on my current projection model:

2019 Draft Projections

PLAYER PICK WARP RK HUMBLE RK
Zion Williamson 1 4.7 1 5.2 1
Ja Morant 2 2.5 5 3.3 2
Chuma Okeke 16 2.6 2 2.3 3
RJ Barrett 3 1.2 25 2.2 4
Sekou Doumbouya 15 2.2 6 2.1 5
Darius Garland 5 1.3 21 2.0 6
Jarrett Culver 6 1.3 20 1.9 7
Coby White 7 1.3 19 1.8 8
Cam Reddish 10 1.6 14 1.8 9
De’Andre Hunter 4 0.5 41 1.6 10
John Konchar UD 2.6 3 1.6 11
Matisse Thybulle 20 1.7 11 1.5 12
Shamorie Ponds UD 2.6 4 1.5 13
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 1.4 17 1.4 14
Jaxson Hayes 8 0.9 33 1.4 15
Brandon Clarke 21 1.5 15 1.4 16
Alen Smailagic 39 2.0 8 1.4 17
Bol Bol 44 2.0 7 1.3 18
Dylan Windler 26 1.6 13 1.3 19
Tyler Herro 13 0.9 29 1.2 20
Darius Bazley 23 1.3 18 1.2 21
Kevin Porter Jr. 30 1.5 16 1.1 22
Ty Jerome 24 1.3 24 1.1 23
Talen Horton-Tucker 46 1.8 9 1.1 24
Romeo Langford 14 0.7 34 1.1 25
Cameron Johnson 11 0.6 40 1.1 26
Chris Clemons UD 1.7 10 1.0 27
Zach Norvell UD 1.7 12 0.9 28
Grant Williams 22 0.9 31 0.9 29
Nassir Little 25 0.9 32 0.8 30
Goga Bitadze 18 0.5 42 0.7 31
Tremont Waters 51 1.3 23 0.7 32
Jordan Poole 28 0.7 35 0.7 33
Luka Samanic 19 0.4 48 0.7 34
Josh Reaves UD 1.3 22 0.6 35
DaQuan Jeffries UD 1.0 26 0.4 36
Dean Wade UD 1.0 27 0.4 37
Jared Harper UD 0.9 28 0.4 38
Rui Hachimura 9 -0.6 74 0.4 39
Terence Davis UD 0.9 30 0.4 40
Carsen Edwards 33 0.4 46 0.4 41
P.J. Washington 12 -0.5 72 0.3 42
Kyle Guy 55 0.6 37 0.2 43
Juwan Morgan UD 0.7 36 0.2 44
Garrison Mathews UD 0.6 38 0.2 45
Caleb Martin UD 0.6 39 0.1 46
Miye Oni 58 0.5 43 0.1 47
Keldon Johnson 28 -0.1 58 0.1 48
Bruno Fernando 34 0.0 56 0.1 49
Quinndary Weatherspoon 49 0.3 49 0.1 50
Louis King UD 0.5 44 0.1 51
Jontay Porter UD 0.4 45 0.0 52
Luguentz Dort UD 0.4 47 0.0 53
Justin Wright-Foreman 53 0.2 53 0.0 54
Ky Bowman UD 0.3 50 0.0 55
Justin Robinson UD 0.3 51 -0.1 56
Brian Bowen UD 0.3 52 -0.1 57
Jeremiah Martin UD 0.2 54 -0.1 58
Cody Martin 36 -0.2 65 -0.1 59
Jaylen Nowell 43 -0.1 59 -0.2 60
Isaiah Roby 45 -0.1 60 -0.2 61
Rayjon Tucker UD 0.1 55 -0.2 62
Jalen McDaniels 52 -0.2 63 -0.3 63
Moses Brown UD -0.1 57 -0.3 64
Nicolas Claxton 31 -0.6 78 -0.3 65
Ignas Brazdeikis 47 -0.3 69 -0.3 66
Max Strus UD -0.1 61 -0.3 67
Charlie Brown UD -0.2 62 -0.4 68
Justin James 40 -0.5 73 -0.4 69
Devontae Cacok UD -0.2 64 -0.4 70
Terance Mann 48 -0.4 71 -0.4 71
Naz Reid UD -0.2 66 -0.4 72
Jalen Lecque UD -0.3 67 -0.4 73
Donta Hall UD -0.3 68 -0.4 74
Mfiondu Kabengele 27 -0.9 82 -0.4 75
Admiral Schofield 42 -0.6 77 -0.5 76
Daniel Gafford 38 -0.7 79 -0.5 77
Adam Mokoka UD -0.4 70 -0.5 78
KZ Okpala 32 -0.9 83 -0.6 79
Amir Coffey UD -0.6 75 -0.7 80
Oshae Brissett UD -0.6 76 -0.7 81
Jordan Bone 57 -0.8 80 -0.8 82
Matt Mooney UD -0.8 81 -0.8 83
Vic Law UD -0.9 84 -0.9 84
Jaylen Hoard 56 -1.0 85 -0.9 85
Eric Paschall 41 -1.4 89 -1.0 86
Kenny Wooten UD -1.2 86 -1.1 87
Tariq Owens UD -1.4 87 -1.2 88
Robert Franks UD -1.4 88 -1.2 89
Marial Shayok 54 -1.5 90 -1.3 90
Tacko Fall UD -1.9 91 -1.6 91
Zylan Cheatham UD -2.0 92 -1.6 92
Marques Bolden UD -2.1 93 -1.7 93
Jarrell Brantley 50 -2.2 94 -1.7 94
Dewan Hernandez 59 -2.4 95 -1.9 95
Chris Silva UD -2.4 96 -1.9 96
Kyle Alexander UD -2.4 97 -1.9 97
Tyler Cook UD -2.6 98 -2.0 98

2018 Draft Projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Luka Doncic 3 6.1 1 5.6 1
Deandre Ayton 1 1.8 12 3.2 2
Trae Young 5 3.0 2 3.2 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 2.3 6 2.8 4
Mikal Bridges 10 2.9 4 2.7 5
Michael Porter 14 2.5 5 2.3 6
Dzanan Musa 29 2.9 3 2.2 7
Mohamed Bamba 6 1.7 16 2.1 8
Marvin Bagley 2 0.7 41 2.0 9
Miles Bridges 12 1.9 11 1.9 10
Kevin Huerter 19 2.1 8 1.8 11
Jacob Evans 28 2.1 9 1.6 12
Mitchell Robinson 36 2.3 7 1.6 13
Landry Shamet 26 1.7 15 1.4 14
Zhaire Smith 16 1.3 21 1.4 15
De’Anthony Melton 46 2.0 10 1.3 16
Collin Sexton 8 0.7 38 1.3 17
Gary Trent Jr. 37 1.8 13 1.3 18
Wendell Carter 7 0.5 43 1.2 19
Donte DiVincenzo 17 1.1 26 1.2 20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 11 0.7 36 1.2 21
Elie Okobo 31 1.5 19 1.2 22
Grayson Allen 21 1.2 23 1.2 23
Josh Okogie 20 1.2 24 1.1 24
Troy Brown 15 0.9 30 1.1 25
Kevin Knox 9 0.5 44 1.1 26
Jevon Carter 32 1.3 22 1.0 27
Lonnie Walker 18 0.8 31 1.0 28
Kenrich Williams UD 1.8 14 1.0 29
Robert Williams 27 1.1 27 0.9 30
Kevin Hervey 57 1.6 17 0.9 31
Jaylen Adams UD 1.5 18 0.8 32
Bonzie Colson UD 1.5 20 0.8 33
Omari Spellman 30 0.8 32 0.7 34
Vince Edwards 52 1.2 25 0.6 35
Svi Mykhailiuk 47 1.1 28 0.6 36
Devonte’ Graham 34 0.7 37 0.6 37
Khyri Thomas 38 0.8 34 0.5 38
Shake Milton 54 1.0 29 0.5 39
Jalen Brunson 33 0.6 42 0.5 40
Keita Bates-Diop 48 0.7 39 0.3 41
Rawle Alkins UD 0.8 33 0.3 42
Daryl Macon UD 0.7 35 0.3 43
Gary Clark UD 0.7 40 0.2 44
Justin Jackson 43 0.3 48 0.1 45
Jerome Robinson 13 -0.7 68 0.1 46
Moritz Wagner 25 -0.3 59 0.0 47
Tyler Davis UD 0.4 45 0.0 48
Melvin Frazier 35 0.0 53 0.0 49
Chandler Hutchison 22 -0.4 64 0.0 50
Duncan Robinson UD 0.3 46 0.0 51
J.P. Macura UD 0.3 47 -0.1 52
Chris Chiozza UD 0.3 49 -0.1 53
Theo Pinson UD 0.3 50 -0.1 54
Trevon Duval UD 0.2 51 -0.1 55
Alize Johnson 50 0.1 52 -0.1 56
Jarred Vanderbilt 41 -0.2 57 -0.1 57
Aaron Holiday 23 -0.6 65 -0.1 58
Donte Grantham UD -0.1 54 -0.3 59
Ray Spalding 56 -0.1 56 -0.3 60
Brandon Goodwin UD -0.1 55 -0.3 61
Tony Carr 51 -0.3 60 -0.4 62
Brandon Sampson UD -0.2 58 -0.4 63
Marcus Derrickson UD -0.3 61 -0.5 64
B.J. Johnson UD -0.3 62 -0.5 65
Allonzo Trier UD -0.4 63 -0.5 66
Bruce Brown 42 -0.7 67 -0.5 67
Joe Chealey UD -0.6 66 -0.7 68
Yante Maten UD -0.8 69 -0.8 69
Hamidou Diallo 45 -1.0 70 -0.8 70
Devon Hall 53 -1.1 71 -1.0 71
Deng Adel UD -1.1 72 -1.0 72
Yuta Watanabe UD -1.2 73 -1.1 73
Chimezie Metu 49 -1.5 75 -1.2 74
Thomas Welsh 58 -1.4 74 -1.2 75
Cameron Reynolds UD -1.6 76 -1.4 76
Drew Eubanks UD -1.7 77 -1.4 77
Johnathan Williams UD -1.7 78 -1.4 78
Kostas Antetokounmpo 60 -2.0 79 -1.6 79
Jared Terrell UD -2.0 80 -1.6 80
George King 59 -2.0 81 -1.7 81
Angel Delgado UD -2.3 82 -1.9 82
Zach Lofton UD -3.1 83 -2.4 83

2017 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Lonzo Ball 2 3.6 1 4.1 1
Markelle Fultz 1 2.0 4 3.3 2
Jonathan Isaac 6 2.2 2 2.5 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 9 1.9 6 2.1 4
Zach Collins 10 1.9 5 2.0 5
Jayson Tatum 3 0.8 25 2.0 6
Lauri Markkanen 7 1.5 13 1.9 7
Josh Jackson 4 0.7 30 1.7 8
Frank Ntilikina 8 1.1 20 1.6 9
OG Anunoby 23 1.8 7 1.5 10
De’Aaron Fox 5 0.6 33 1.5 11
John Collins 19 1.5 12 1.4 12
Tony Bradley 28 1.7 9 1.4 13
Josh Hart 30 1.7 8 1.3 14
Justin Patton 16 1.1 18 1.3 15
Monte Morris 51 2.0 3 1.2 16
Donovan Mitchell 13 0.9 22 1.2 17
Luke Kennard 12 0.8 27 1.2 18
Malik Monk 11 0.7 28 1.2 19
Tyler Lydon 24 1.3 16 1.2 20
Isaiah Hartenstein 43 1.6 11 1.0 21
TJ Leaf 18 0.9 23 1.0 22
Aleksandar Vezenkov 57 1.6 10 0.9 23
Alec Peters 54 1.4 15 0.8 24
Jarrett Allen 22 0.7 31 0.8 25
Thomas Bryant 42 1.2 17 0.8 26
Derrick Walton Jr. UD 1.4 14 0.7 27
Andzejs Pasecniks 25 0.7 29 0.7 28
Bam Adebayo 14 0.2 41 0.7 29
Ike Anigbogu 47 1.1 19 0.7 30
Harry Giles 20 0.4 36 0.6 31
D.J. Wilson 17 0.3 39 0.6 32
Frank Jackson 31 0.6 34 0.5 33
Jawun Evans 39 0.7 32 0.4 34
Caleb Swanigan 26 0.3 38 0.4 35
Derrick White 29 0.4 37 0.4 36
Chris Boucher UD 1.0 21 0.4 37
Luke Kornet UD 0.9 24 0.3 38
Alpha Kaba 60 0.8 26 0.3 39
Davon Reed 32 0.2 42 0.2 40
Ivan Rabb 35 0.3 40 0.2 41
Justin A. Jackson 15 -0.5 55 0.2 42
Mathias Lessort 50 0.4 35 0.2 43
Sterling Brown 46 0.1 44 0.0 44
Vlatko Cancar 49 0.1 43 0.0 45
Tyler Dorsey 41 0.0 48 -0.1 46
Damyean Dotson 44 0.0 46 -0.1 47
Jonah Bolden 36 -0.2 50 -0.1 48
Semi Ojeleye 37 -0.2 52 -0.1 49
Jordan Bell 38 -0.2 51 -0.1 50
Nigel Hayes UD 0.0 45 -0.2 51
Terrance Ferguson 21 -0.8 66 -0.2 52
London Perrantes UD 0.0 47 -0.3 53
Kyle Kuzma 27 -0.7 63 -0.3 54
Frank Mason III 34 -0.6 59 -0.3 55
Edmond Sumner 52 -0.3 53 -0.4 56
Charles Cooke UD -0.2 49 -0.4 57
Dillon Brooks 45 -0.5 54 -0.4 58
Sindarius Thornwell 48 -0.5 57 -0.5 59
Ben Moore UD -0.5 56 -0.6 60
Kobi Simmons UD -0.5 58 -0.6 61
Nigel Williams-Goss 55 -0.7 62 -0.7 62
Antonio Blakeney UD -0.6 60 -0.7 63
Jacob Wiley UD -0.7 61 -0.7 64
Naz Mitrou-Long UD -0.8 64 -0.8 65
Gian Clavell UD -0.8 65 -0.8 66
Devin Robinson UD -1.0 67 -0.9 67
Ognjen Jaramaz 58 -1.0 68 -1.0 68
Tyler Cavanaugh UD -1.2 69 -1.1 69
Johnathan Motley UD -1.2 70 -1.1 70
Dwayne Bacon 40 -1.5 74 -1.1 71
Jaron Blossomgame 59 -1.2 71 -1.1 72
PJ Dozier UD -1.3 72 -1.2 73
Milton Doyle UD -1.5 73 -1.3 74
Jabari Bird 56 -1.5 76 -1.3 75
Jamel Artis UD -1.5 75 -1.3 76
Xavier Rathan-Mayes UD -1.6 77 -1.4 77
Wesley Iwundu 33 -2.1 82 -1.4 78
Kadeem Allen 53 -1.8 78 -1.4 79
Antonius Cleveland UD -1.9 79 -1.6 80
Erik McCree UD -1.9 80 -1.6 81
Matt Williams UD -2.0 81 -1.6 82
Isaiah Hicks UD -2.2 83 -1.8 83
Rodney Purvis UD -2.4 84 -1.9 84
Mangok Mathiang UD -2.4 85 -1.9 85

2016 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Ben Simmons 1 2.4 6 3.6 1
Dragan Bender 4 3.4 2 3.6 2
Brandon Ingram 2 1.9 11 2.9 3
Jakob Poeltl 9 2.4 5 2.5 4
Zhou Qi 43 3.5 1 2.3 5
Juan Hernangomez 15 2.6 4 2.3 6
Kris Dunn 5 1.5 18 2.1 7
Jamal Murray 7 1.7 14 2.1 8
Buddy Hield 6 1.2 27 1.9 9
Ante Zizic 23 2.3 7 1.8 10
Wade Baldwin 17 1.9 12 1.8 11
Fred VanVleet UD 2.8 3 1.7 12
Marquese Chriss 8 1.1 31 1.6 13
Denzel Valentine 14 1.5 19 1.6 14
Ivica Zubac 32 2.1 8 1.6 15
Domantas Sabonis 11 1.2 30 1.5 16
Tyler Ulis 34 1.9 13 1.4 17
Henry Ellenson 18 1.4 22 1.4 18
Guerschon Yabusele 16 1.3 23 1.4 19
Patrick McCaw 38 1.9 10 1.3 20
Gary Payton II UD 2.1 9 1.2 21
Furkan Korkmaz 26 1.4 21 1.2 22
Caris LeVert 20 1.2 28 1.2 23
Diamond Stone 40 1.7 16 1.1 24
Chinanu Onuaku 37 1.6 17 1.1 25
Deyonta Davis 31 1.4 20 1.1 26
Brice Johnson 25 1.2 29 1.0 27
Jaylen Brown 3 -0.5 68 1.0 28
Cheick Diallo 33 1.3 26 1.0 29
Ron Baker UD 1.7 15 0.9 30
Malik Beasley 19 0.8 37 0.9 31
Stephen Zimmerman 41 1.3 24 0.9 32
Taurean Prince 12 0.3 44 0.9 33
Marcus Paige 55 1.3 25 0.7 34
Kay Felder 54 1.0 36 0.5 35
Derrick Jones UD 1.1 32 0.5 36
Shawn Long UD 1.1 33 0.5 37
Daniel Ochefu UD 1.1 34 0.5 38
Skal Labissiere 28 0.4 41 0.5 39
Jarrod Uthoff UD 1.0 35 0.5 40
Pascal Siakam 27 0.4 42 0.5 41
Malachi Richardson 22 0.2 49 0.4 42
Isaiah Whitehead 42 0.6 40 0.3 43
Dejounte Murray 29 0.3 46 0.3 44
Petr Cornelie 53 0.7 38 0.3 45
DeAndre Bembry 21 -0.1 53 0.2 46
Daniel Hamilton 56 0.6 39 0.2 47
Demetrius Jackson 45 0.3 45 0.1 48
Dorian Finney-Smith UD 0.4 43 0.0 49
Jake Layman 47 0.1 50 0.0 50
Timothe Luwawu 24 -0.4 65 -0.1 51
Yogi Ferrell UD 0.3 47 -0.1 52
Tim Quarterman UD 0.2 48 -0.1 53
Joel Bolomboy 52 0.0 51 -0.2 54
Damian Jones 30 -0.4 64 -0.2 55
Isaia Cordinier 44 -0.2 55 -0.2 56
Rade Zagorac 35 -0.4 61 -0.2 57
A.J. Hammons 46 -0.2 56 -0.2 58
Paul Zipser 48 -0.2 57 -0.3 59
Kyle Wiltjer UD 0.0 52 -0.3 60
Malcolm Brogdon 36 -0.5 66 -0.3 61
Ben Bentil 51 -0.3 58 -0.3 62
Troy Williams UD -0.2 54 -0.4 63
Wang Zhelin 57 -0.3 59 -0.4 64
Tyrone Wallace 60 -0.4 60 -0.5 65
Mike Tobey UD -0.4 62 -0.5 66
Bryn Forbes UD -0.4 63 -0.5 67
Michael Gbinije 49 -0.6 69 -0.6 68
Isaiah Cousins 59 -0.5 67 -0.6 69
Georges Niang 50 -0.8 72 -0.7 70
Sheldon McClellan UD -0.7 70 -0.7 71
Patricio Garino UD -0.8 71 -0.8 72
Wayne Selden UD -0.9 73 -0.9 73
Danuel House UD -1.0 74 -1.0 74
Marcus Georges-Hunt UD -1.1 75 -1.0 75
David Michineau 39 -1.5 78 -1.0 76
Marshall Plumlee UD -1.3 76 -1.1 77
David Nwaba UD -1.3 77 -1.1 78
Alex Poythress UD -1.6 79 -1.4 79
Abdel Nader 58 -1.8 80 -1.5 80
Isaiah Taylor UD -2.0 81 -1.6 81

2015 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Karl-Anthony Towns 1 3.0 3 4.0 1
D’Angelo Russell 2 3.3 1 3.9 2
Kristaps Porzingis 4 3.2 2 3.5 3
Jahlil Okafor 3 2.0 15 2.8 4
Emmanuel Mudiay 7 2.7 7 2.8 5
Frank Kaminsky 9 2.7 5 2.7 6
Myles Turner 11 2.6 8 2.5 7
Mario Hezonja 5 1.7 23 2.3 8
Stanley Johnson 8 2.1 13 2.3 9
Tyus Jones 24 2.8 4 2.2 10
Delon Wright 20 2.6 9 2.2 11
Cameron Payne 14 2.2 11 2.0 12
R.J. Hunter 28 2.7 6 2.0 13
Justise Winslow 10 1.7 25 1.9 14
Sam Dekker 18 2.2 10 1.9 15
Bobby Portis 22 2.1 12 1.8 16
Kelly Oubre 15 1.8 21 1.8 17
Willie Cauley-Stein 6 1.1 31 1.8 18
Cedi Osman 31 2.0 17 1.5 19
Devin Booker 13 1.2 30 1.4 20
Guillermo Hernangomez 35 1.9 19 1.4 21
Kevon Looney 30 1.8 22 1.3 22
Chris McCullough 29 1.6 27 1.2 23
Trey Lyles 12 0.9 39 1.2 24
Richaun Holmes 37 1.7 24 1.2 25
Terry Rozier 16 1.1 33 1.2 26
Arturas Gudaitis 47 1.9 20 1.2 27
Alan Williams UD 2.1 14 1.2 28
Briante Weber UD 2.0 16 1.1 29
Christian Wood UD 1.9 18 1.1 30
Marcus Eriksson 50 1.7 26 1.0 31
Rashad Vaughn 17 0.9 40 1.0 32
Justin Anderson 21 1.0 35 1.0 33
Jerian Grant 19 0.9 41 1.0 34
Daniel Diez 54 1.5 29 0.8 35
Dimitris Agravanis 59 1.5 28 0.8 36
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 23 0.7 43 0.7 37
Pat Connaughton 41 0.9 37 0.6 38
Montrezl Harrell 32 0.7 44 0.6 39
Tyler Harvey 51 1.0 34 0.6 40
Aaron White 49 0.9 38 0.5 41
Cliff Alexander UD 1.1 32 0.5 42
Larry Nance Jr. 27 0.3 49 0.4 43
Dakari Johnson 48 0.8 42 0.4 44
Luka Mitrovic 60 0.9 36 0.4 45
Darrun Hilliard 38 0.5 46 0.4 46
Nikola Milutinov 26 0.1 51 0.3 47
Jordan Mickey 33 0.1 52 0.1 48
T.J. McConnell UD 0.6 45 0.1 49
Jarell Martin 25 -0.1 54 0.1 50
Nikola Radicevic 57 0.5 47 0.1 51
Branden Dawson 56 0.4 48 0.0 52
Joseph Young 43 0.0 53 -0.1 53
Aaron Harrison UD 0.2 50 -0.1 54
Olivier Hanlan 42 -0.2 55 -0.2 55
Marcus Thornton 45 -0.2 56 -0.2 56
Andrew Harrison 44 -0.7 58 -0.6 57
Josh Richardson 40 -0.8 60 -0.6 58
J.P. Tokoto 58 -0.6 57 -0.7 59
Anthony Brown 34 -1.1 64 -0.7 60
Sir’Dominic Pointer 53 -0.8 59 -0.7 61
Norman Powell 46 -1.0 63 -0.8 62
Cady Lalanne 55 -0.9 61 -0.8 63
Duje Dukan UD -0.9 62 -0.9 64
Rakeem Christmas 36 -1.3 66 -0.9 65
Bryce DeJean-Jones UD -1.3 65 -1.2 66
J.J. O’Brien UD -2.5 67 -2.0 67

2014 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Marcus Smart 6 3.6 1 3.5 1
Joel Embiid 3 2.9 7 3.4 2
Jabari Parker 2 2.5 8 3.4 3
Andrew Wiggins 1 1.3 20 2.8 4
Jusuf Nurkic 16 3.3 3 2.8 5
Clint Capela 25 3.4 2 2.6 6
Noah Vonleh 9 2.4 9 2.5 7
Jordan Adams 22 3.0 6 2.4 8
Aaron Gordon 4 1.7 15 2.4 9
Nikola Jokic 41 3.1 5 2.1 10
Julius Randle 7 1.6 16 2.1 11
Doug McDermott 11 1.8 14 1.9 12
Tyler Ennis 18 2.0 11 1.8 13
Gary Harris 19 1.9 12 1.7 14
Nik Stauskas 8 1.2 21 1.7 15
P.J. Hairston 26 2.0 10 1.6 16
Dario Saric 12 1.4 19 1.6 17
Jarnell Stokes 35 1.9 13 1.4 18
Elfrid Payton 10 0.8 32 1.3 19
Zach Lavine 13 0.9 26 1.2 20
Kyle Anderson 30 1.5 17 1.2 21
K.J. McDaniels 32 1.5 18 1.1 22
James Young 17 0.8 31 1.0 23
Shabazz Napier 24 1.1 23 1.0 24
T.J. Warren 14 0.6 33 1.0 25
Damien Inglis 31 1.2 22 0.9 26
Mitch McGary 21 0.8 30 0.9 27
Spencer Dinwiddie 38 1.1 24 0.7 28
Walter Tavares 43 1.0 25 0.6 29
Dante Exum 5 3.3 4 0.6 30
Lamar Patterson 48 0.9 28 0.5 31
Adreian Payne 15 -0.1 47 0.4 32
Langston Galloway UD 0.9 27 0.4 33
Glenn Robinson III 40 0.6 38 0.4 34
Bryce Cotton UD 0.9 29 0.3 35
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 0.2 41 0.3 36
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 51 0.6 37 0.2 37
Vasilije Micic 52 0.6 36 0.2 38
Devyn Marble 56 0.6 34 0.2 39
Eric Moreland UD 0.6 35 0.1 40
Rodney Hood 23 -0.2 48 0.1 41
Josh Huestis 29 -0.1 46 0.1 42
Sim Bhullar UD 0.4 39 0.1 43
Cleanthony Early 34 0.0 43 0.1 44
Louis Labeyrie 57 0.3 40 0.0 45
Nick Johnson 42 0.0 45 -0.1 46
Tim Frazier UD 0.2 42 -0.1 47
Alec Brown 50 0.0 44 -0.2 48
C.J. Wilcox 28 -0.5 59 -0.2 49
Johnny O’Bryant 36 -0.4 53 -0.2 50
Jerami Grant 39 -0.4 55 -0.3 51
Russ Smith 47 -0.3 51 -0.3 52
Joe Harris 33 -0.6 61 -0.3 53
Jerrelle Benimon UD -0.2 49 -0.4 54
Andre Dawkins UD -0.2 50 -0.4 55
Jordan Clarkson 46 -0.5 58 -0.4 56
Tyler Johnson UD -0.3 52 -0.5 57
Markel Brown 44 -0.6 60 -0.5 58
Cory Jefferson 60 -0.4 54 -0.5 59
Alex Kirk UD -0.4 56 -0.5 60
Sean Kilpatrick UD -0.5 57 -0.6 61
DeAndre Daniels 37 -0.9 65 -0.6 62
David Stockton UD -0.8 62 -0.8 63
Jabari Brown UD -0.8 63 -0.8 64
Shayne Whittington UD -0.8 64 -0.8 65
Alessandro Gentile 53 -0.9 66 -0.8 66
Tarik Black UD -1.0 67 -0.9 67
Dwight Powell 45 -1.3 70 -1.0 68
Nemanja Dangubic 54 -1.2 69 -1.0 69
James Michael McAdoo UD -1.1 68 -1.0 70
Jordan McRae 58 -1.4 71 -1.2 71
Semaj Christon 55 -1.5 72 -1.3 72
Cameron Bairstow 49 -1.8 75 -1.4 73
JaKarr Sampson UD -1.7 73 -1.4 74
Xavier Thames 59 -1.8 74 -1.5 75
Travis Wear UD -2.1 76 -1.7 76
David Wear UD -2.6 77 -2.0 77

2013 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Nerlens Noel 6 3.6 1 3.5 1
Anthony Bennett 1 2.1 12 3.4 2
Otto Porter 3 2.7 2 3.2 3
Cody Zeller 4 2.5 5 3.0 4
Victor Oladipo 2 1.7 16 2.8 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 8 2.6 4 2.6 6
C.J. McCollum 10 2.5 6 2.5 7
Trey Burke 9 2.2 9 2.3 8
Lucas Nogueira 16 2.4 7 2.1 9
Michael Carter-Williams 11 2.0 13 2.1 10
Andre Roberson 26 2.6 3 2.0 11
Steven Adams 12 1.9 15 1.9 12
Sergey Karasev 19 2.0 14 1.8 13
Ben McLemore 7 1.1 34 1.6 14
Nate Wolters 38 2.2 8 1.6 15
Shane Larkin 18 1.6 19 1.5 16
Pierre Jackson 42 2.1 10 1.4 17
Rudy Gobert 27 1.7 17 1.3 18
Kelly Olynyk 13 1.1 33 1.3 19
Alex Len 5 0.3 50 1.3 20
Arsalan Kazemi 54 2.1 11 1.3 21
Glen Rice Jr. 35 1.6 18 1.2 22
Tony Mitchell 37 1.5 23 1.1 23
Alex Abrines 32 1.4 25 1.0 24
Grant Jerrett 40 1.5 22 1.0 25
Mike Muscala 44 1.5 20 1.0 26
Marko Todorovic 45 1.5 21 1.0 27
Reggie Bullock 25 1.0 36 0.9 28
Allen Crabbe 31 1.1 28 0.9 29
Ray McCallum 36 1.1 29 0.8 30
Robert Covington UD 1.4 24 0.7 31
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 0.6 43 0.7 32
Jeff Withey 39 1.0 37 0.7 33
Ryan Kelly 48 1.1 32 0.6 34
Phil Pressey UD 1.2 26 0.6 35
Bojan Dubljevic 59 1.2 27 0.6 36
Isaiah Canaan 34 0.8 39 0.6 37
Troy Daniels UD 1.1 30 0.5 38
James Southerland UD 1.1 31 0.5 39
Gorgui Dieng 21 0.2 52 0.5 40
Jamaal Franklin 41 0.7 40 0.5 41
D.J. Stephens UD 1.0 35 0.5 42
Livio Jean-Charles 28 0.4 49 0.4 43
Matthew Dellavedova UD 0.9 38 0.4 44
Ian Clark UD 0.7 41 0.2 45
Solomon Hill 23 0.0 54 0.2 46
Joffrey Lauvergne 55 0.6 42 0.2 47
Tony Snell 20 -0.2 56 0.2 48
Raul Neto 47 0.5 45 0.2 49
Deshaun Thomas 58 0.6 44 0.2 50
James Ennis 50 0.4 46 0.2 51
Erick Green 46 0.4 48 0.2 52
Shabazz Muhammad 14 -0.7 62 0.1 53
Mason Plumlee 22 -0.4 60 0.0 54
Seth Curry UD 0.4 47 0.0 55
Brandon Davies UD 0.3 51 0.0 56
Archie Goodwin 29 -0.3 59 -0.1 57
Erik Murphy 49 0.0 53 -0.1 58
Nemanja Nedovic 30 -0.4 61 -0.2 59
Peyton Siva 56 -0.1 55 -0.3 60
Lorenzo Brown 52 -0.3 58 -0.4 61
Adonis Thomas UD -0.3 57 -0.4 62
Carrick Felix 33 -1.2 66 -0.8 63
Elias Harris UD -1.0 63 -0.9 64
Alex Oriakhi 57 -1.1 64 -1.0 65
Romero Osby 51 -1.2 67 -1.0 66
Vander Blue UD -1.1 65 -1.0 67
DeWayne Dedmon UD -1.5 68 -1.3 68
Colton Iverson 53 -1.8 69 -1.4 69

2012 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Anthony Davis 1 5.5 1 5.8 1
Bradley Beal 3 2.5 5 3.1 2
Dion Waiters 4 2.2 7 2.7 3
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2 1.3 19 2.5 4
Damian Lillard 6 2.2 8 2.5 5
Jared Sullinger 21 3.1 2 2.5 6
Andre Drummond 9 1.9 13 2.1 7
Draymond Green 35 2.8 3 2.0 8
Jae Crowder 34 2.7 4 1.9 9
Terrence Jones 18 2.1 9 1.9 10
Thomas Robinson 5 1.1 23 1.9 11
John Jenkins 23 1.9 11 1.6 12
John Henson 14 1.5 16 1.5 13
Jeremy Lamb 12 1.3 21 1.5 14
Royce White 16 1.4 17 1.4 15
Evan Fournier 20 1.6 14 1.4 16
Maurice Harkless 15 1.3 20 1.4 17
Christapher Johnson UD 2.2 6 1.3 18
Harrison Barnes 7 0.5 34 1.3 19
Terrence Ross 8 0.5 33 1.2 20
Marcus Denmon 59 2.1 10 1.2 21
Tony Wroten 25 1.3 18 1.2 22
Robbie Hummel 58 1.9 12 1.1 23
Kendall Marshall 13 0.8 28 1.1 24
Furkan Aldemir 53 1.5 15 0.9 25
Khris Middleton 39 1.2 22 0.9 26
Jared Cunningham 24 0.8 26 0.8 27
Austin Rivers 10 -0.1 45 0.7 28
Tyler Zeller 17 0.3 38 0.6 29
Meyers Leonard 11 -0.1 47 0.6 30
Kostas Papanikolaou 48 1.0 24 0.6 31
Tomas Satoransky 32 0.7 30 0.6 32
Kyle O’Quinn 49 0.9 25 0.5 33
Will Barton 40 0.7 29 0.5 34
Quincy Miller 38 0.6 31 0.4 35
Arnett Moultrie 27 0.3 37 0.4 36
Quincy Acy 37 0.5 35 0.4 37
Kevin Jones UD 0.8 27 0.3 38
Andrew Nicholson 19 -0.2 49 0.3 39
Orlando Johnson 36 0.3 39 0.2 40
Perry Jones 28 0.1 43 0.2 41
Scott Machado UD 0.6 32 0.1 42
Marquis Teague 29 -0.1 44 0.1 43
Tornike Shengelia 54 0.3 36 0.0 44
Fab Melo 22 -0.4 50 0.0 45
Tomislav Zubcic 56 0.2 40 -0.1 46
Doron Lamb 42 -0.1 46 -0.1 47
Kent Bazemore UD 0.2 41 -0.1 48
Maalik Wayns UD 0.2 42 -0.1 49
Darius Miller 46 -0.1 48 -0.2 50
Jeff Taylor 31 -0.7 53 -0.4 51
Festus Ezeli 30 -0.7 54 -0.4 52
Tyshawn Taylor 41 -0.5 52 -0.4 53
Kris Joseph 51 -0.4 51 -0.4 54
Darius Johnson-Odom 55 -0.8 55 -0.7 55
Robert Sacre 60 -0.8 56 -0.8 56
Kim English 44 -1.1 57 -0.9 57
Mike Scott 43 -1.2 58 -0.9 58
Henry Sims UD -1.2 59 -1.1 59
Bernard James 33 -1.7 61 -1.1 60
Miles Plumlee 26 -1.9 63 -1.1 61
DeQuan Jones UD -1.5 60 -1.3 62
Kevin Murphy 47 -1.8 62 -1.3 63

2011 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Kyrie Irving 1 4.2 2 4.9 1
Derrick Williams 2 3.3 3 3.9 2
Kenneth Faried 22 5.1 1 3.8 3
Jonas Valanciunas 5 2.7 6 2.9 4
Tristan Thompson 4 2.2 9 2.8 5
Alec Burks 12 2.7 5 2.5 6
Bismack Biyombo 7 2.2 10 2.5 7
Jimmer Fredette 10 2.4 8 2.4 8
Nikola Mirotic 23 2.9 4 2.3 9
Kawhi Leonard 15 2.5 7 2.3 10
Kemba Walker 9 1.9 12 2.1 11
Brandon Knight 8 1.6 19 2.0 12
Jan Vesely 6 1.0 47 1.7 13
Reggie Jackson 24 2.0 10 1.6 14
JaJuan Johnson 27 1.9 14 1.5 15
Marcus Morris 14 1.3 24 1.5 16
Shelvin Mack 34 2.0 11 1.4 17
Klay Thompson 11 1.0 39 1.4 18
Markieff Morris 13 1.1 35 1.4 19
Jordan Hamilton 26 1.6 18 1.3 20
Chris Singleton 18 1.3 27 1.3 21
Jimmy Butler 30 1.6 20 1.2 22
Tobias Harris 19 1.2 28 1.2 23
Nikola Vucevic 16 1.1 38 1.2 24
Iman Shumpert 17 1.1 36 1.2 25
Trey Thompkins 37 1.7 17 1.2 26
Keith Benson 48 1.9 13 1.2 27
Marshon Brooks 25 1.3 26 1.1 28
Jon Leuer 40 1.6 21 1.1 29
Josh Selby 49 1.7 16 1.1 30
D.J. Kennedy UD 1.9 15 1.0 31
Justin Harper 32 1.3 25 1.0 32
Cory Joseph 29 1.2 31 1.0 33
Travis Leslie 47 1.6 22 1.0 34
Kyle Singler 33 1.2 30 0.9 35
Milan Macvan 54 1.6 23 0.9 36
Donatas Motiejunas 20 0.8 43 0.9 37
Jordan Williams 36 1.1 33 0.8 38
Tyler Honeycutt 35 1.1 37 0.8 39
Lavoy Allen 50 1.2 32 0.7 40
Jon Diebler 51 1.1 34 0.6 41
Cory Higgins UD 1.2 29 0.6 42
Josh Harrellson 45 0.9 40 0.6 43
Chandler Parsons 38 0.7 46 0.5 44
Charles Jenkins 44 0.7 44 0.4 45
Greg Smith UD 0.8 41 0.3 46
Malcolm Thomas UD 0.8 42 0.3 47
Norris Cole 28 0.2 51 0.3 48
Darius Morris 41 0.4 50 0.2 49
Bojan Bogdanovic 31 0.0 54 0.1 50
E’Twaun Moore 55 0.4 48 0.1 51
Isaiah Thomas 60 0.4 49 0.0 52
Nolan Smith 21 -0.5 57 0.0 53
Andrew Goudelock 46 0.1 53 -0.1 54
Julyan Stone UD 0.1 52 -0.2 55
Malcolm Lee 43 -0.2 56 -0.2 56
Chris Wright UD -0.2 55 -0.4 57
Xavier Silas UD -1.1 58 -1.0 58
DeAndre Liggins 53 -1.6 59 -1.3 59
Vernon Macklin 52 -1.9 60 -1.5 60
Mychel Thompson UD -2.0 61 -1.6 61

2010 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
DeMarcus Cousins 5 4.1 1 3.9 1
John Wall 1 2.4 10 3.6 2
Greg Monroe 7 3.3 2 3.2 3
Derrick Favors 3 2.6 7 3.2 4
Gordon Hayward 9 3.3 3 3.1 5
Cole Aldrich 11 3.1 4 2.8 6
Xavier Henry 12 2.7 6 2.5 7
Paul George 10 2.4 9 2.4 8
Evan Turner 2 1.1 28 2.4 9
Patrick Patterson 14 2.4 8 2.2 10
Hassan Whiteside 33 2.8 5 2.0 11
Al-Farouq Aminu 8 1.7 18 2.0 12
Wesley Johnson 4 1.1 33 1.9 13
James Anderson 20 2.1 12 1.8 14
Ed Davis 13 1.5 23 1.6 15
Trevor Booker 23 1.8 16 1.5 16
Daniel Orton 29 2.0 14 1.5 17
Jarvis Varnado 41 2.2 11 1.5 18
Dexter Pittman 32 1.9 15 1.4 19
Ekpe Udoh 6 0.6 42 1.4 20
Dominique Jones 25 1.6 20 1.3 21
Tibor Pleiss 31 1.8 17 1.3 22
Larry Sanders 15 1.1 31 1.3 23
Manny Harris UD 2.0 13 1.1 24
Tiny Gallon 47 1.6 19 1.0 25
Damion James 24 1.1 32 1.0 26
Jerome Jordan 44 1.5 22 1.0 27
Eric Bledsoe 18 0.8 37 0.9 28
Luke Harangody 52 1.6 21 0.9 29
Luke Babbitt 16 0.6 40 0.9 30
Landry Fields 39 1.3 25 0.9 31
Devin Ebanks 43 1.2 27 0.8 32
Jeremy Lin UD 1.3 24 0.7 33
Willie Warren 54 1.2 26 0.6 34
Avery Bradley 19 0.3 48 0.6 35
Lance Stephenson 40 0.9 36 0.6 36
Paulao Prestes 45 0.9 35 0.6 37
Jordan Crawford 27 0.5 43 0.5 38
Dwayne Collins 60 1.1 29 0.5 39
Solomon Alabi 50 1.0 34 0.5 40
Ben Uzoh UD 1.1 30 0.5 41
Andy Rautins 38 0.7 39 0.5 42
Greivis Vasquez 28 0.4 46 0.5 43
Kevin Seraphin 17 0.0 53 0.5 44
Terrico White 36 0.6 41 0.4 45
Elliot Williams 22 0.1 50 0.4 46
Gani Lawal 46 0.7 38 0.4 47
Lazar Hayward 30 0.0 52 0.1 48
Jeremy Evans 55 0.5 44 0.1 49
Darington Hobson 36 0.1 51 0.1 50
Derrick Caracter 58 0.5 45 0.1 51
Da’Sean Butler 42 0.2 49 0.1 52
Nemanja Bjelica 35 0.0 54 0.0 53
Samardo Samuels UD 0.4 47 0.0 54
Armon Johnson 34 -0.1 55 0.0 55
Quincy Pondexter 26 -0.4 57 -0.1 56
Craig Brackins 21 -0.8 60 -0.2 57
Stanley Robinson 59 -0.1 56 -0.3 58
Sherron Collins UD -0.5 58 -0.6 59
Hamady Ndiaye 56 -0.7 59 -0.7 60
Magnum Rolle 51 -1.0 61 -0.8 61
Ishmael Smith UD -1.5 62 -1.3 62
Ryan Reid 57 -2.5 63 -1.9 63

2009 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Blake Griffin 1 4.2 3 4.9 1
James Harden 3 4.2 2 4.3 2
Ricky Rubio 5 3.7 5 3.7 3
Stephen Curry 7 3.9 4 3.6 4
DeJuan Blair 37 5.0 1 3.5 5
Hasheem Thabeet 2 2.0 12 3.0 6
Tyreke Evans 4 2.2 11 2.7 7
Ty Lawson 18 2.8 7 2.4 8
Jrue Holiday 17 2.8 8 2.3 9
Brandon Jennings 10 2.3 14 2.3 10
Jonny Flynn 6 1.5 15 2.1 11
Nick Calathes 45 3.1 6 2.0 12
Jordan Hill 8 1.3 19 1.8 13
Tyler Hansbrough 13 1.5 16 1.6 14
Sergio Llull 34 2.2 10 1.6 15
Daniel Green 46 2.3 9 1.5 16
Byron Mullens 24 1.8 13 1.5 17
James Johnson 16 1.1 25 1.2 18
Terrence Williams 11 0.8 31 1.2 19
Earl Clark 14 0.9 28 1.2 20
Darren Collison 21 1.1 24 1.1 21
Eric Maynor 20 1.0 26 1.1 22
Jeff Ayres 31 1.3 20 1.0 23
Chase Budinger 44 1.5 17 0.9 24
Gerald Henderson Jr. 12 0.3 42 0.8 25
DeMar DeRozan 9 0.1 49 0.8 26
Jeff Teague 19 0.7 35 0.8 27
Marcus Thornton 43 1.3 21 0.8 28
DeMarre Carroll 27 0.9 29 0.8 29
Lester Hudson 58 1.4 18 0.8 30
Patrick Beverley 42 1.2 23 0.8 31
Omri Casspi 23 0.7 45 0.7 32
Austin Daye 15 0.3 43 0.7 33
Victor Claver 22 0.5 38 0.7 34
Patrick Mills 55 1.2 22 0.6 35
Henk Norel 47 1.0 27 0.6 36
Jermaine Taylor 32 0.7 33 0.6 37
Wayne Ellington 28 0.6 37 0.6 38
Jodie Meeks 41 0.8 30 0.5 39
Derrick Brown 40 0.8 32 0.5 40
DaJuan Summers 35 0.7 34 0.5 41
Jon Brockman 38 0.5 40 0.3 42
Ahmad Nivins 56 0.7 36 0.2 43
Goran Suton 50 0.5 39 0.2 44
Toney Douglas 29 0.1 47 0.2 45
Taj Gibson 26 -0.1 51 0.1 46
Chinemelu Elonu 59 0.5 41 0.1 47
Dante Cunningham 33 0.0 50 0.1 48
A.J. Price 52 0.2 44 0.0 49
Emir Preldzic 57 0.1 48 -0.1 50
Robert Dozier 60 0.1 46 -0.2 51
Sam Young 36 -0.5 53 -0.3 52
Wesley Matthews UD -0.4 52 -0.5 53
Taylor Griffin 48 -1.0 54 -0.8 54
Robert Vaden 54 -1.4 55 -1.2 55
Jack McClinton 51 -1.5 56 -1.2 56

2008 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Kevin Love 5 4.6 1 4.3 1
Michael Beasley 2 3.7 2 4.2 2
Derrick Rose 1 1.7 10 3.1 3
Danilo Gallinari 6 2.9 4 3.0 4
Ryan Anderson 21 2.6 3 2.1 5
Brook Lopez 10 1.9 8 2.1 6
Russell Westbrook 4 1.1 21 2.0 7
Eric Gordon 7 1.4 17 1.9 8
Roy Hibbert 17 2.1 6 1.9 9
J.J. Hickson 19 2.0 7 1.8 10
Jason Thompson 12 1.6 13 1.7 11
Jerryd Bayless 11 1.5 16 1.7 12
O.J. Mayo 3 0.4 29 1.7 13
Anthony Randolph 14 1.6 12 1.6 14
Robin Lopez 15 1.6 11 1.6 15
Mario Chalmers 34 2.2 5 1.6 16
Marreese Speights 16 1.5 14 1.5 17
Kosta Koufos 23 1.8 9 1.5 18
D.J. Augustin 9 0.9 23 1.4 19
JaVale McGee 18 1.3 18 1.3 20
George Hill 26 1.5 15 1.3 21
Nicolas Batum 25 1.2 26 1.1 22
Donte Greene 28 1.2 19 1.0 23
D.J. White 29 1.1 20 0.9 24
Darrell Arthur 27 0.9 24 0.8 25
DeAndre Jordan 35 1.0 22 0.8 26
Joe Alexander 8 -0.1 39 0.8 27
Nikola Pekovic 31 0.8 25 0.6 28
Courtney Lee 22 0.2 32 0.4 29
Brandon Rush 13 -0.3 41 0.4 30
Kyle Weaver 38 0.4 30 0.3 31
Bill Walker 47 0.5 28 0.3 32
Darnell Jackson 52 0.6 27 0.2 33
Chris Douglas-Roberts 40 0.2 31 0.1 34
J.R. Giddens 30 -0.1 36 0.1 35
Sean Singletary 42 0.1 34 0.0 36
Malik Hairston 48 0.2 33 0.0 37
Joey Dorsey 33 -0.4 42 -0.2 38
Anthony Morrow UD 0.0 35 -0.3 39
Othello Hunter UD -0.1 37 -0.3 40
Rob Kurz UD -0.1 38 -0.3 41
DeMarcus Nelson UD -0.2 40 -0.4 42
Sonny Weems 39 -0.7 43 -0.5 43
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute 37 -0.8 44 -0.5 44
Joe Crawford 58 -1.2 45 -1.0 45

2007 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Greg Oden 1 3.6 2 4.5 1
Kevin Durant 2 3.7 1 4.1 2
Mike Conley 4 2.7 4 3.1 3
Al Horford 3 2.2 6 2.9 4
Brandan Wright 8 2.1 7 2.3 5
Rudy Fernandez 24 2.9 3 2.2 6
Joakim Noah 9 2.0 9 2.2 7
Jeff Green 5 1.6 14 2.2 8
Sean Williams 17 2.4 5 2.1 9
Thaddeus Young 12 2.0 10 2.0 10
Rodney Stuckey 15 2.1 8 2.0 11
Corey Brewer 7 1.0 22 1.6 12
Spencer Hawes 10 1.2 18 1.6 13
Javaris Crittenton 19 1.7 13 1.5 14
Nick Fazekas 34 2.0 11 1.4 15
Julian Wright 13 1.2 19 1.4 16
Jason Smith 20 1.5 16 1.4 17
Josh McRoberts 37 1.7 12 1.2 18
Marco Belinelli 18 1.0 20 1.1 19
Glen Davis 35 1.5 15 1.1 20
Tiago Splitter 28 1.2 17 1.0 21
Jared Dudley 22 1.0 21 1.0 22
Al Thornton 14 0.4 26 0.8 23
Carl Landry 31 0.9 24 0.7 24
Daequan Cook 21 0.3 27 0.5 25
Aaron Gray 49 1.0 23 0.5 26
Stephane Lasme 46 0.7 25 0.4 27
Wilson Chandler 23 0.1 29 0.4 28
Marcus Williams 33 0.3 28 0.3 29
Aaron Brooks 26 -0.1 32 0.2 30
Acie Law 11 -0.8 39 0.1 31
Dominic McGuire 47 0.0 30 -0.1 32
Arron Afflalo 27 -0.5 38 -0.1 33
Jermareo Davidson 36 -0.3 35 -0.2 34
Ramon Sessions 56 -0.1 31 -0.2 35
D.J. Strawberry 59 -0.1 33 -0.3 36
Demetris Nichols 53 -0.2 34 -0.3 37
Mario West UD -0.3 36 -0.5 38
Joel Anthony UD -0.4 37 -0.5 39
Nick Young 16 -1.4 41 -0.5 40
Chris Richard 41 -1.2 40 -0.9 41

2006 draft projections

Player Pick WARP Rk Humble Rk
Andrea Bargnani 1 2.8 5 3.9 1
Tyrus Thomas 4 3.6 1 3.7 2
Shelden Williams 5 2.7 3 3.0 3
LaMarcus Aldridge 2 1.8 11 2.9 4
Patrick O’Bryant 9 2.7 4 2.6 5
Rudy Gay 8 1.9 8 2.2 6
Paul Millsap 47 3.2 2 2.1 7
Adam Morrison 3 0.8 28 1.9 8
Brandon Roy 6 1.3 20 1.9 9
Ronnie Brewer 14 1.9 10 1.8 10
Cedric Simmons 15 1.7 13 1.7 11
Renaldo Balkman 20 1.9 7 1.7 12
Rajon Rondo 21 2.0 6 1.7 13
Shawne Williams 17 1.8 12 1.7 14
Thabo Sefolosha 13 1.3 19 1.5 15
Quincy Douby 19 1.6 15 1.5 16
J.J. Redick 11 1.1 22 1.4 17
Randy Foye 7 0.7 29 1.4 18
Jordan Farmar 26 1.7 14 1.4 19
Mardy Collins 29 1.6 16 1.2 20
Paul Davis 34 1.5 17 1.1 21
Marcus Williams 22 1.1 21 1.1 22
Justin Williams UD 1.9 9 1.1 23
Hilton Armstrong 12 0.5 33 1.0 24
Daniel Gibson 42 1.5 18 1.0 25
Rodney Carney 16 0.7 30 0.9 26
Sergio Rodriguez 27 0.9 25 0.8 27
Craig Smith 36 0.9 27 0.7 28
Dee D. Brown 46 1.0 23 0.6 29
Josh Boone 23 0.4 34 0.6 30
Leon Powe 49 1.0 24 0.5 31
Chris Quinn UD 0.9 26 0.4 32
Solomon Jones 33 0.4 35 0.3 33
Alexander Johnson 45 0.6 32 0.3 34
Tarence Kinsey UD 0.6 31 0.2 35
Bobby Jones 37 0.1 38 0.1 36
Hassan Adams 54 0.4 36 0.1 37
Allan Ray UD 0.2 37 -0.1 38
David Noel 39 -0.2 39 -0.1 39

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