Most significant surprises, disappointments and storylines one month into men’s basketball
We hope you wrote down all of your preseason predictions in pencil, not pen. Because a few of those ideas that appeared affordable a month ago– not so much now.Take UConn, the two-time champion that has actually currently fallen on hard times after an 0-3 stretch at the Maui Invitational during Thanksgiving week. The Huskies almost fell out of the nationwide rankings, however more notably, they’ve been the subject of widespread doubt about their opportunities to win a 3rd consecutive national championship.Editor’s Picks 2 Associated With UConn’s early decrease, the path appears open for a brand-new champion, however whom? No team has actually emerged
as the clear front-runner at this point.In the national player of the year race, Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the forecasted No. 1 choice, has actually been outstanding
, but it still appears like we’re waiting on that performance that separates him from the pack, which is stacked with competitors. He’ll need to chase after Auburn’s Johni Broome and Marquette’s Kam Jones to end the season with the Wooden Award.Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf discuss the existing college basketball landscape a month into the season. What has been the greatest surprise(excellent or bad)of the season so far?Medcalf: I didn’t expect this start from the Tennessee Volunteers, who will probably begin the week as the No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll. Last season’s Elite Eight squad had Dalton Knecht, the existing front-runner for the NBA’s novice of the year award, Jonas Aidoo (transferred to Arkansas)and other essential vets. But with Zakai Zeigler and North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier, these Vols have a greater offending effectiveness rate than last season’s team. And they’re still defensively astute, per the norm under coach Rick Barnes.Top stories of the week from Get unique access to thousands of premium posts a year from leading authors. – Just how much does Juan Soto assist the Mets?” – The 25 crucial players on NBA Cup groups”- Barnwell jobs the 2025 NFL QBs today”More ESPN+content”Borzello: Entering the season, there was a case to be
made that the 3 most tested players in the nation were North Carolina’s RJ Davis, Alabama’s Mark Sears and Kansas’Hunter Dickinson. Through
one month, however, all three have actually been much more
irregular than we’ve pertained to expect from them. Davis is shooting 35%from the field and a career-low 24.2 % from 3. Sears is shooting a career-low 37%and was scoreless versus Illinois. Dickinson is averaging his fewest points given that his freshman season. All three teams need their stars to return to their past form, too.Lunardi: All of us understood the SEC would be excellent. We didn’t know it would be this deep and this excellent. It’s now very possible– perhaps even probable– that the conference will set a record for most NCAA quotes in one season. The 16-team Big East of 2010-11 put 11 groups into that season’s bracket. The 16-team SEC of 2024-25 presently projects 12, with
a minimum of another on the bubble.Which national championship contender do you no longer think in?Medcalf: For me, it’s the UConn Huskies. I think it’s easy to forget that Dan Hurley’s back-to-back champion teams produced 6 NBA draft choices, including 3 first-round choices. Those Huskies weren’t an underdog story. They were very skilled and experienced, which assists when the objective is to win a national championship. This season, nevertheless, the Huskies
do not have that exact same enforcing depth. One coach who dealt with UConn this season informed ESPN that
it’s no longer a team opponents fear. And I’m not convinced that will change before March.Borzello: Houston. The easy response would be UConn, however I’m not all set to give up on the ruling back-to-back champ and a team with Dan Hurley as its coach and Alex Karaban and Liam McNeeley as its go-to guys. The Houston Cougars, however, are a group about which I have major concerns. The Cougars’defense is good enough to keep them in games, but I simply don’t understand if they have the shot creators required to win a title. It was a concern at times last season, when they were arguably the very best group in the nation, but that group had Jamal Shead. This group, obviously, does not.Lunardi: The North Carolina Tar Heels might be hard-pressed to make the final 4 of the ACC, much less the Final 4 that actually matters. The Tar Heels have actually been handled by every significant conference foe and required some late-game good luck to leave Dayton for their only win in Maui. This is the exact same program that missed the tournament entirely 2 years ago as a preseason No. 1 team, which shouldn’t occur when you have RJ Davis.Which national championship competitor are you now all-in on?Medcalf: The Duke Blue Devils. There has been a lot of buzz about Duke’s late-game stumbles against Kansas and Kentucky. However there is also another method to look at it: A team led by the predicted No. 1 pick in the NBA draft simply completed 2-2 against Auburn, Arizona, Kentucky and Kansas, and it’s a handful of plays from being 4-0. Tyrese Proctor has connected on 46 %of his 3-point efforts. And with Khaman Maluach in the paint, heaven Devils are also initially in adjusted protective efficiency on KenPom. They’ll threaten in the postseason.Borzello: It’s hard not to be a big believer in Auburn right now. The Tigers
have the Wood Award favorite in Johni Broome, an emerging freshman guard in Tahaad Pettiford and a multitude of flexible veterans up and down the roster that allows them to play against various designs. I didn’t rather consider them national title competitors before the season, but they’ve played like arguably the very best team in the nation through one month.Lunardi: Is it time yet to speak about Marquette? The Golden Eagles were believed to require a little time after losing Big East Gamer of the Year Tyler Kolek but have instead strengthened behind national POTY prospect Kam Jones.
Marquette has actually lost just as soon as, at Iowa State, and boasts what is approaching a No. 1 seed-type résumé.What storyline has yet to be dealt with that you’re waiting to see?Medcalf: After a great deal of noise throughout the preseason about the potential result, I want to know how the travel demands attached to adjustment will impact groups in conference play. Oregon could make noise in the Big 10 after a strong start but trips to Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota– over a three-week period– might be physically difficult. UCLA will play at Maryland and Rutgers in mid-January. And Arizona will travel to Cincinnati and West Virginia quickly after New Year’s, too. Those opponents will likewise need to make prolonged journeys to play the West Coast schools, too. It’s a more recent dynamic in this landscape that could affect outcomes.Borzello: Can a group win a championship game beginning three freshmen? That’s going to be the big question dealing with
Duke the remainder of the season. I’m greater on heaven Devils as a possible title-winner than I was entering the season, mainly because they’re clearly going to be an elite protective system with Cooper Flagg’s flexibility, Maliq Brown’s post defense and Khaman Maluach’s rim defense. Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster and Kon Knueppel will need to end up being more constant as the season advances, however there’s certainly enough here to reach San Antonio.Lunardi: How deep will the choice committee go in considering losing teams within the expanded super leagues? The concept of rejecting sub.-500 power conference records is long since out the window. However suppose, say, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 7-13 in the Big 10
with four or 5 Quad 1 wins? Or Arkansas goes 6-12 in the SEC with a little handful of big wins? Arguments that formerly fell under the NIT window are going to be quite in play this March.Is the national player of the year race a little clearer at this moment of the season?Medcalf: I believe Johni Broome was plainly the guy to beat ahead of Auburn’s road test against Louisville on Sunday. Which’s still the truth. Cooper Flagg has an excellent stat line(16.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.4 BPG), and his team has a win over Broome’s squad; Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler could be sleepers in this conversation, too.
But Broome’s real competitors right now is Kam Jones, who ended up with 32 points in Shaka Smart’s first win over Wisconsin as Marquette’s head coach. It was the 4th time this season that Jones scored a minimum of 24 points in a game.Borzello: As mentioned previously, three of the prime POY candidates getting in the season– Davis, Sears, Dickinson– haven’t been quite as good as previous years. Flagg has been excellent and must just improve as the season goes on, but the preferred right now is plainly Broome. Entering Sunday, the Auburn big guy was balancing 20.6 points and leading the country
in rebounding at 12.8 per game– while likewise dishing out three helps and blocking 3 shots per night. He has been impressive in huge games(20 and 9 vs. Houston, 21 and 10 vs. Iowa State, 23 and 19 vs. North Carolina, 20 and 12 vs. Duke), and his supremacy reveals no indication of slowing down.Lunardi: Permit me to throw in another prospect: Eric Dixon is putting up computer game numbers at Villanova. He’s second in the nation in scoring( 25.7 PPG)with shooting splits of.530/.541./ 851. If the sixth-year redshirt in some way leads the Wildcats to the NCAA competition and saves Kyle Neptune’s job, he’ll need to get some consideration.If you could have ONE preseason prediction do-over, what would it be?Medcalf: I would have had more self-confidence in Memphis. When Cent Hardaway fired the majority of his staff prior to the start of the 2024-25 project, it appeared as if the program was increase. But the additions of Mike Davis and Nolan Smith has plainly elevated a team that began 7-1 with wins over UConn and Michigan State. Plus, P.J. Haggerty (22.3 PPG, 42 percent from beyond the arc getting in Sunday)– who is at his 3rd school– is playing like an All-American. I’m not exactly sure how far Memphis will enter the postseason, but the Tigers look like an NCAA tournament team with a strong backcourt that’s currently helped this program surpass early expectations.Borzello: I ‘d have focused more on North Carolina’s complete absence of a frontcourt. I had the Tar Heels simply outside the top 10, however in that second or 3rd tier of groups that could make a Final 4 run. The majority of that was predicated on an absolutely packed perimeter group with Davis, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. And the guards have been as great as marketed,
in spite of the consistency problems. But the frontcourt has been nonexistent and the
defense woeful. Belmont transfer Cade Tyson is not Harrison Ingram, Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin is not Armando Bacot. And before this past weekend, the Tar Heels had actually allowed 91 points per game in 5 games versus top-50 opponents.Lunardi: More belief in the Kentucky Wildcats. Even if it’s recency predisposition after this weekend’s late-night triumph over Gonzaga, Mark Pope has the Wildcats even more along than even the most ardent members of Huge Blue Nation expected. Wins over Duke and the Zags are gifts that will continue providing no matter the number of SEC pot holes the Wildcats encounter. This is a second weekend NCAA tournament team at worst, which will be a nice change of speed in Lexington.Make a bold forecast for the rest of the season: Medcalf: We will see another surprise retirement from an elite coach this year. Over the last 3 years, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim and Jay Wright all left the game, in part because of the altering tide created by NIL and transfer portal needs. While many seasoned coaches have changed and vowed to stay for years to come– see: Tom Izzo and Kelvin Sampson– the idea of restoring a group every season is a concern for coaches at every level. And despite the fact that some of the most accomplished coaches have actually devoted themselves to adapting to the modifications in the sport, there is no warranty they’ll still feel that method in 4 months.Borzello: Only one 1-seed reaches the Last Four.
Given we have actually had simply more than one 1-seed advance to the Last Four in just among the last 3 NCAA competitions, perhaps this isn’t that strong– but I think we have a Final Four a lot more comparable to 2023(absolutely no 1-seeds, no seed better than a 4)than a chalky one. Parity is as prevalent as ever, top groups are struggling away from home every night, and I think there are teams outside the current leading 25 sufficient to make a go to the Final 4. It adds up to a wild NCAA tournament.Lunardi: Even with two less teams
, the SEC will get more NCAA competition quotes than either the
Big Ten or ACC. And, if non-conference records equate at all, those bids will not be squandered. I anticipate the SEC will comprise half of this year’s Last Four and posture an authentic hazard for the league’s first championship game considering that Kentucky in 2012.