Men’s college basketball betting picks: Champion, Final Four and conference

• Dalen Cuff, ESPNOct 16, 2023, 09:00 AM ET Odds courtesy

  of Caesars Sportsbook, except where noted.Well, it’s that time once again, where some guy like me informs you that the college basketball season begins in a matter of weeks (Nov. 6, to be exact). Why does college hoops still start in the thick of the college football and NFL season? And in this particular year up versus “Monday Night Football”? Only the extremely sensible people at the NCAA can inform you. However I’ll conserve the requirement for a scheduling modification rant for another day. In the meantime, the season will begin in earnest and the wagering will commence, so in the immortal words of Costs Shakespeare from “Henry V,” “Again unto the breach, dear buddies.”

  		Kansas +1000 Michigan State +1200 Kentucky +1200 Duke +1400
  	Purdue	+1600
  		Arizona +1800 UConn +2000 Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.For complete odds, click here All right, we aren’t following King Henry into battle

  , but futures wagering in college hoops is hard. The one-and-done nature of the NCAA competition makes wagering a national champ a difficult proposition. However likewise, with the introduction of the transfer website, the roster turnover makes it even more challenging, as numerous coaches I speak with do not even know what they have on their teams in mid-October. Simply take a look at the groups that made the Last Four last year: Miami was 125-1, UConn and San Diego State were 60-1, and Florida Atlantic wasn’t even noted at a lot of books, however the ones that did had them at 400-1. That was a wild Final Four, but it does highlight how hard it is to bank on April’s winner in October. I believe choosing a nationwide champ is the most useless method to the futures market, But I’ll use some suggestions below: Search for experience: Groups filled with young, talented players(see Kentucky this year)have actually not fared well in the last few years. Given that Duke’s title-winning group in 2015– 235th in experience per KenPom– every national champ has been 128th or lower because metric. The future NBA talent is appealing, but recently it hasn’t led to nationwide titles at the collegiate level.The NBA determines how basketball is played, and it drips down: College hoops still utilizes huge, physical plodding centers, however I do not believe those groups are winning

  6 games in a row in March and April against unfamiliar opponents. There are lots of current examples of this, but most glaring is Purdue in the 2023 tourney or the general futility of the Big Ten as a conference, which has actually had only 4 groups reach the Sugary food 16 the previous 3 years.Taking these two ideas into account, I’m out on three of the five groups with the quickest odds: Kansas (+1000), Kentucky (+1200)and Purdue( +1600). I’m taking a look at taking a leaflet on Marquette (+2500).

  The Golden Eagles return 4 of 5 starters from a team that won the Big East regular-season and competition titles. Tyler Kolek is arguably the very best point player in the country, they have proficient, flexible guys and have actually taken on the persona of their coach, Shaka Smart. And they’ll be battle-tested playing in the Big East, which could be the best league in the nation this season.Final 4 and conference winners This is where the market gets interesting. There’s some worth here and a more realistic chance of cashing, too.It’s likewise essential to note there’s a distinction in between picks to reach the Final Four versus choosing conference winners. Some groups are better developed

  to win in league play than they are against opponents they are less familiar with, especially those that have diverse designs. For example, Purdue(+220 to win the

  Big 10)– a less athletic, slower-paced group– fares better with similar challengers and styles in the Big Ten, making it a better bet to win its conference than to make it to April.Also, as mentioned above, veterans are rather valuable and many teams have tackled”growing older “by tapping into the transfer portal, helped by players utilizing their additional year of eligibility due to COVID.Final 4 Teams, Class Breakdown Past 11 NCAA tournaments Years Fr./ So.Jr./ Sr.2012-18 15.1 15.3 2019,’21-23 11.0 19.5 Here is a chart that reveals the number of players by class who have played in at least 75%of team games and balanced at least 10 minutes per game for Last Four teams because the 2011-12 season. Over the previous four Last Fours, you’ll observe a substantial dropoff in contributions from freshmen.With all that in mind, here are my preferred values: Last Four

  Creighton (+800 on DraftKings) Midseason last year this was my preferred play to get

  to the Final Four( at a similar rate), as the Bluejays got healthy. They were a couple of ownerships away from cashing and making it through a dreadful mill against San Diego State, but alas they did not. This year, first-team all-Mountain West point player Steven Ashworth steps in after transferring from Utah State to

  lead a veteran group that returns with Elite 8 experience

  . Ryan Kalkbrenner is an anchor as a rim-protecting, versatile center and is flanked by wings that can score and make plays. I like Creighton to develop on last season’s success

  . Michigan State( +550 on DraftKings)’Daily Wager’ A daily sports wagering news and information show (6-7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that aims to much better serve the countless sports fans who participate in sports betting and help inform general sports fans with extensive analysis. Watch “Tom Izzo’s Spartans were the last Huge 10 group to make a Final Four look in 2019 and the Hall of Famer has the

  horses to do it again. Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard are seasoned guards

  , Malik Hall, when healthy, is an outstanding wing, and they have an extremely ranked freshman class to raise the total talent level.

  Duke (+380 on DraftKings)The Blue Devils have 4 of five starters returning, which hasn’t taken place in Durham in more than a decade. They have experience with senior Jeremy Roach and pros in Tyrese Proctor and Kyle Filipowski, who might be lottery game choices. They also have actually a highly rated freshman class coming in, highlighted by Jared McCain

  , who I saw at practice just recently and was

  incredibly impressed. He will be in contention for ACC Novice of the Year. Illinois( +1500 on DraftKings)I’m enamored with the Illini’s talent. They return a great deal of top-level men in Coleman Hawkins, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Ty Rodgers, who could all be pros. They have actually added a lot of skill and experience in the transfer portal too.

  If Illinois can make more 3s and value the

  ball much better this season, it might not be developed to win the Big Ten, but can make a run to Phoenix. Colorado(+2500 on DraftKings)The Buffaloes are a long shot, however I like this team’s makeup. KJ Simpson is an elite lead guard, Tristan da Silva might be a first-team All-American, Cody Williams (little brother of recent lottery pick Jalen)is a top-10 hire and Little bit Boyle is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. I believe they will grow throughout the season, making

  Colorado a great long shot Final Four choice, and I also like them to win the Pac-12( +700), a conference I don’t believe has an apparent elite team.Conference winner While I frequently delight in waiting to make my wagers till right before conference play starts, when more visual and numerical information is available, here are my preferred futures in the preseason(in addition to Colorado): Miami (Fla.) to win ACC (+500)Editor’s Picks Miami went to the Final 4 last season, the Elite 8 the year before that and– most importantly to those people who wagered them to win the conference in’22-23– are ruling ACC champs. They did lose Isaiah Wong and some otherpieces, however I actually like their returning players, especially Norchad Omier, who is

a load and the heartbeat of this group. It’s actually difficult to repeat– last season was a shock to some and everyone will be choosing Duke(+130) this season– but the value here is good. Alabama to win SEC (+1000)The SEC will be a really excellent league when again. There are more-talented groups with much shorter chances to take the title, however the lineup building of Nate Oats’team interests me. It features one key returning

starter in point guard Mark Sears