Five questions dealing with the CFP committee before the second ranking
- Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior WriterNov 7, 2023, 04:00 AM ET Close College football
- press reporter Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of Indiana University
The 2nd ranking might be extremely simple for the College Football Playoff choice committee after its leading 8 groups all won in Week 10. It’s not constantly that simple, however, when the committee “begins each week with a blank sheet of paper” and “what occurred in 2015 does not matter.”
That’s why the back-to-back defending national champs weren’t the committee’s No. 1 team in its initial ranking. Was No. 2 Georgia’s win versus No. 12 Mizzou enough to alter that in the committee’s second of six rankings, unveiled at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday night on ESPN?Maybe, though Ohio State is still ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the typical top-25 team would have the most tough time achieving the very same undefeated record versus the Buckeyes’challengers to this point.While there wasn’t a lot of drama on the scoreboard, there
are still several pressing questions facing the committee today that a minimum of have the possible to modify its 2nd ranking.1. Has Georgia done enough to unseat the Buckeyes?One of the most substantial Week 10 results was Georgia’s win against Missouri, which gave the Bulldogs their very first triumph against a CFP-ranked opponent. While Georgia added to its playoff résumé, Ohio State did not, beating an unranked but enhanced Rutgers team on the road.The committee does not rank groups based on a weekly picture, though. It will continue to compare Ohio State
and Georgia based upon their résumés to date, and assuming Penn State and Notre Dame are still top-25 wins, the Buckeyes will still edge Georgia with their schedule strength.It didn’t assist Ohio State that Notre Dame dropped to three losses after losing at Clemson, which is a four-loss group.
It also didn’t assist Georgia that Florida lost at home to Arkansas, and the Gators are now a four-loss team. One of the factors Georgia was No. 2 and ahead of Michigan last week was due to the fact that the committee valued its wins against Kentucky and Florida more than any opponents the Wolverines had defeated.Another consideration is how valuable the win versus Mizzou was, and that will be determined in part by how far the Tigers fall tonight. If Georgia earns a promotion to the leading area Tuesday, it would
most likely be justified by the committee considering the Bulldogs a better group while citing Ohio State’s first-half battles at Rutgers. They ‘d need to explain, however, how that was various than Georgia’s first-half resist Mizzou.2. Will Washington break the top 4? Steph Chambers/Getty Images Washington’s Oct. 14 win versus Oregon probably is the best in the nation, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee recently. The only distinction this week is that Washington strengthened its case Saturday with a double-digit road win at No. 20 USC. The question is how much the committee worths that win now that Trojans are a three-loss team.Washington’s pedestrian efficiencies in wins against Arizona State(2-7)and Stanford (3-6)are why the committee put the Huskies at No. 5 in its very first ranking. While it was another offending clinic for Washington against USC, the defense allowed at least 30 points for the second straight week. None of the unbeaten groups above Washington lost, so if the Huskies go up, it would be because of the roadway win against a ranked CFP team.3. Is Oregon still the leading one-loss team?This is a concern only since Alabama now has three top-25 wins: versus Ole Miss, Tennessee and now LSU. Oregon has one declaration win– Oct. 28 at Utah.The Ducks have been one of the most complete teams in the country, and the committee has and will continue to honor Washington’s head-to-head win versus
Oregon as long as the Huskies stay undefeated. Will the committee continue to do the exact same for Texas, which beat Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa in Week 2? It would
be unexpected if it didn’t– which would leave groups ranked 5-8 in the same order– however Alabama has made substantial strides against ranked competition in back-to-back weeks. It likewise has a much better résumé than Texas, conserve for obviously its loss to the Longhorns. The Tide are No. 4 in strength of record, while Texas follows at No. 5. That could
at least generate some dispute in the room regarding whether the Tide need to be any higher.4. Does Ole Miss have a shot at the playoff?The Rebels are a long shot to win the SEC, however if they run the table and surface with one loss, they will a minimum of get some factor to consider. Winning the division will be extremely difficult even if the Rebels run the table because they still need Alabama to lose twice. That’s not likely to take place, thinking about Alabama plays two unranked SEC opponents (Kentucky and Auburn ), and ESPN’s
Football Power Index provides the Tide at least an
80% opportunity to win each game.Allstate Playoff Predictor How will Saturday’s leading games affect the College Football Playoff chase after? What are the present chances for the top 4? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Examine back each week as the chances are updated following that week’s games. If Ole Miss beats Georgia on Saturday, though, it will have the best win in the country, plus 2 other wins versus ranked opponents in LSU and Tulane. A win Saturday would be much more impressive considering it remains in Athens. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss has a 31%possibility to
beat Georgia and a 26% possibility to end up 11-1. If that situation unfolds, Ole Miss will have a 23 %chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. So much of that, though, depends upon what happens in the other Power 5 conference
championship games– and how the SEC title game unfolds. If Georgia were to win the SEC, and Ole Miss beat the SEC champs … that’s a severe discussion for the committee.Saturday’s opportunity against Georgia gives Ole Miss the very best opportunity of any of the teams hovering around the leading 10. Louisville has an outside opportunity if it runs the table and wins the SEC, but an 11-1 Ole Miss without an SEC title would have a much better résumé than a 12-1 Louisville that won the ACC.5. Is LSU the committee’s top three-loss team?LSU is a crucial common opponent for both Florida State and Alabama, which both beat the Tigers and need the win to continue to impress the committee. It’s likewise impactful to Ole Miss (see: No. 4). LSU still ranks No. 16 in strength of record
, the greatest of any three-loss team.If LSU is the committee’s leading three-loss group as anticipated, where does Notre Dame(7-3 )land? Ohio State should have a top-10 win against Penn State, but how will the committee value its close road win against the Irish? The Irish are No. 22 in strength of record metric, the second greatest ranking of any