FCS quarterfinals sneak peek: Sizing up the last eight competitors

Costs Connelly, ESPN Personnel WriterDec 8, 2023, 07:00 AM ET Close Bill Connelly is a personnel writer for ESPN.com.This is, to me, the very best weekend of

the FCS season. Every week is enjoyable in its own right, however all the weeks that came previously have had legendary competition in the type of the FBS slate.This weekend? Aside from Army-Navy, it’s all FCS. You get a Friday night trip to Washington-Grizzly Stadium matching up two of the subdivision’s winningest programs. You get an early Saturday look at the safeguarding and aiming champ, a South Dakota State team so good it could have competed with the best groups of North Dakota State’s title run. You get a rare North Dakota State vengeance effort in the midafternoon. And during the night, after the Heisman event, you get a trip to the happiest put on earth, the Kibbie Dome.That’s a complete weekend right there! Here’s what you need to understand about the FCS quarterfinals.First, here’s the slate: – No. 7 Furman at No. 2 Montana(Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN2). SP +projection: Montana by 12.0. – No. 8 Villanova at No. 1 South Dakota State( Saturday, noon,

ESPN ). SP +projection: SDSU by 20.8. – North Dakota State at No. 3 South Dakota (Saturday

, 3:30 p.m., ABC). SP +projection: NDSU by 9.4. – No. 5 UAlbany at No. 4 Idaho(Saturday, 10 p.m., ESPN

+). SP+projection: Albany by 0.8. Of the 8 seeded groups in the field, seven advanced to the quarters, and 5 did

so by at least 17 points; the only exception: Montana State, which lost an overtime classic versus nine-time champ North Dakota State.The game was as even as might be: The groups were tied at 14-14 at halftime, and after NDSU’s TaMerik Williams opened the 2nd half with a 75-yard goal run, MSU’s Tommy Mellott did the same with a 76-yarder 54 seconds later. MSU held a 7-point lead for most of the half, however TK Marshall’s 29-yard rating with 2:33 left sent out the game to overtime. Camera Miller scored on the Bison’s very first OT possession, and while MSU right away responded with a 25-yard touchdown, Hunter Poncius obstructed the taking place PAT and NDSU advanced.BLOCKED!! Bison Win !! pic.twitter.com/KKjLErmzZw!.?.!— NDSU Football(@NDSUfootball)December 2, 2023 The three-loss Bison were unseeded, however because their wins have been as definite as ever, they still grade out well per the numbers. SP+ has actually continued to rank them in the leading 3 for most of the season, and that relative faith

was backed up by the win over MSU. The road does not

get simpler, however. Next up: a trip to Vermillion to handle a South Dakota group that took them down 24-19 in Fargo in September.That game might pack the most narrative capacity, but all 4 are appealing. Here are your quarterfinalists, ranked in order of their projected title odds(per SP+ ). Tier 1 1. South Dakota State (12-0)SP+rank: initially Playoff results to date: defeated Mercer 41-0 Title odds: 58.4%(two weeks ago: 56.8%) Here’s the current SP+leading 5, presented in an adjusted points per game figure that, with a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, can be used to right away derive prospective point spreads in between teams.1. South Dakota State 38.9 2. North Dakota State 29.7 3. Montana 23.2 4. Montana State 20.9 5. Villanova 20.6 Villanova, SDSU’s quarterfinal opponent,

is remarkable. However the Wildcats are as far from the

Jackrabbits in the SP+scores as No. 52 Butler is

from the Wildcats. That’s ludicrous. If the traditional 28-point adjustment between FBS and FCS in applied, SDSU’s ranking would rank 24th in FBS. That’s the kind of dominance we’re handling at the minute.

The Jacks outgained bad Mercer 571-151 recently, scoring on their very first five drives and cruising to a 41-0 win that could have been even worse.

Their run game features a running back(Isaiah Davis )and 2 offending linemen( deal with Garret Greenfield and guard Mason McCormick) who have actually committed to play in the East-West Shrine Bowl. Their quarterback, Mark Gronowski, is a Walter Payton Award finalist. And their defense , led by edge rush Cade Terveer, linebacker Isaiah Stalbird and safety Tucker Big, is most likely much better than their offense. Congratulations, Villanova. You had a hell of a season. It will take a massive upset for you to reach the semifinals.Tier 2 2. North Dakota State(10-3 )SP +rank: second Playoff results to date: beat Drake 66-3; beat No. 8 Montana State 35-34(OT)Title odds: 21.0 %(2 weeks ago: 9.1%) Get your favorite live sports, stories and originals with ESPN +, Disney + and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and begin streaming something for everyone today

! For 7 of the 8 remaining

groups, their title

odds haven’t changed much overall. SDSU’s ranking rose enough after the Mercer thumping that groups in the Jackrabbits’ half of the bracket in fact saw their title odds diminish after winning their own round-of-16 games. On the other half, NDSU’s score has actually risen enough, thanks both to the degree of their domination of Drake and their roadway win over an incredible Montana State group, that the Bison now have a better than 1-in-5 possibility of managing another title run.Said run will need vengeance versus South Dakota, nevertheless. The very first USD-NDSU game of the season was fascinating: NDSU’s run game was as ground-and-pound as ever, as the Bison cranked out two 12-play drives and 2 16-play drives, but two of those four belongings resulted in just basket. USD, meanwhile, got 50-and 52-yard goal passes from Aidan Bouman to Carter Bell, and in a game with just 13 overall belongings, those simple points, and a single NDSU turnover, made the distinction in a 24-19 Coyotes win.When the run game stalled out, the death game had a hard time to make up the distinction.

That held true for NDSU not only against USD, however also against Montana State last week. Consisting of 4 sacks, quarterback Camera Miller’s 17 dropbacks against MSU netted simply 41 lawns. One or two huge passes might make the distinction against South Dakota. 3. Montana(11-1 )SP+ rank: 3rd Playoff results to date: beat Delaware 49-19 Title odds: 8.2%(2 weeks ago: 8.1 %)The most visually pleasing result of last weekend was the Grizzlies’ pummeling of Delaware. The snow intensified throughout the first half, and the more difficult it came down, the better Montana played.”,,!”#GoGriz pic.twitter.com/Sz8BSjFm3N!.?.!— Montana Griz Football (@MontanaGrizFB)December 3, 2023 Montana’s SP +rating is a bit artificially low due to the fact that it’s a full-season rating, and the Grizzlies have improved drastically given that setting up quarterback Clifton McDowell into the lineup after a stunning upset loss to Northern Arizona. McDowell, freshman running back Eli Gilman(this year’s Jerry Rice Award winner for finest FCS freshman

)and receiver and ace return guy Junior Bergen lead an offense that has actually scored at least 34 points in five straight

games. Their title odds ought to be higher than 8%. This will be the first Montana-Furman match because the 2001 national title game, a 13-6 Griz win keyed by 142 hurrying yards from Yohance Humphrey and 2 interceptions of

a Furman quarterback by the name of Billy Napier. This will be Montana’s 8th night game of the season, and the Grizzlies have won the very first seven. The darker the sky, the even worse the weather condition, the better Montana plays.Tier 3 4. UAlbany(10-3)SP +rank: 6th Playoff results to date: defeated Richmond 41-13 Title chances: 3.8 %(two weeks ago: 3.9% )Here come the Great Danes! Albany scored its second-ever FCS playoff win last week in definite fashion; a forecasted 7-point preferred over Richmond, the Danes led 14-0 after one quarter and never recalled. They were up 27-0 before Richmond might get on the board, and they sacked a pair of Spider QBs 7 times. They lead FCS with 47 sacks.Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger wasn’t terrific against Richmond– 170 lawns, two goals, an interception and 2 sacks– however he leads FCS in goal passes, and he’s gotten a boost of late from running back Griffin Woodell(96 yards last week). And the defense has driven the team’s success anyway.AJ Simon and Anton Juncaj have combined for 41.5 TFLs and 26.5 sacks, and defensive back Aamir Hall has five interceptions and 13 separations. This defense attacks and attacks and attacks, and on paper it could be the road equalizer versus

Idaho.

5. Villanova(10-2)

SP+rank: fifth Playoff results to date: beat Youngstown State 45-28 Title chances: 3.2 %(two weeks ago: 4.4% )Regardless of this weekend’s point spread, this actually is an outstanding Villanova group. Per SP+, the Wildcats have the seventh-best offense and 13th-best defense in FCS, and versus a Youngstown State team that had actually won its last 2 games by a combined

50 points, Villanova took in an early 10-7 deficit, then put away an easy win with a 31-3 run. Connor Watkins completed passes of 64, 45, 36, 34, 27 and 22 yards against the Penguins, and he’s averaging 17.9 backyards per conclusion for the season.Honestly, big, unforeseen chunk plays and some turnovers are most likely what it will require to throw a scare into South Dakota State, and the Wildcats can certainly deliver both of those. Only Albany and Elon have actually included the all-or-nothing offense, and the Villanova defense has actually picked off 13 passes and broken up 45 more. This is the type of high-variance group that might

pull an upset in a game like this.

(High variance implies you could likewise lose by a particularly

large quantity too. ) 6. South Dakota (10-2)SP +rank: 10th Playoff results to date: beat Sacramento State 34-24 Title odds: 2.3 %(2 weeks ago: 1.9%)Flexibility is essential in the playoffs, and South Dakota has proven it can win games in all sorts of ways. The Coyotes have actually lost to just two of the 25 best groups in the country– Missouri and South Dakota State– and have actually otherwise swept a slate that consisted of 4 playoff teams. Bob Nielson’s team can win

games by ratings of either 34-31 or 14-7. The defense, led by linemen Brendan Webb and Nick Gaes and all-world corner Myles Harden, is definitely the surer of South Dakota’s systems– they’re third in protective SP+and just 44th in offensive SP+– but the offense came through last week versus Sacramento State. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis combined for 191 hurrying backyards on 28 brings, and Aidan Bouman threw a 75-yard touchdown pass to JJ Galbreath. Throw in a fumble return touchdown, and the Coyotes had enough firepower to advance. They’ll need a couple more haymakers to surpass North Dakota State a second time. 7. Idaho(9-3 )SP+rank: 13th Playoff results to date:

beat Southern Illinois 20-17 (OT )Title odds: 2.0 %(2 weeks ago: 2.7%)It took some time for Idaho to feel comfortable back at the FCS level. After 23 years in FBS, the Vandals hung back down in 2018 and went simply 15-25 in their very first four seasons. But Jason Eck brought them to the 2022 playoffs in his very first year at the helm, and last Saturday, in dramatic style, they won their first

playoff game in thirty years. Tracking SIU 10-0 early, they turned the game with special teams.THE ONE. THE ONLY. JERMAINE JACKSON. Vandals level the score 10-10. 5:22 left in the third quarter. #GoVandals pic.twitter.com/k6MFASxq2B!.?.!— Idaho Football( @VandalFootball )December 3, 2023 Jermaine Johnson’s punt return drove a comeback, and the Vandals blocked a basket at the buzzer to force overtime. Ricardo Chavez’s 29-yard basket won the game.In 1993, the Vandals beat Louisiana-Monroe and Boston University on the way to the semifinals; now they have to remove Albany to return. If they can get Anthony Woods and Nick Romano entering the ground

game, they can neutralize the incredible Excellent Danes pass rush. That could offer Marcus Harris and an opportunistic Idaho pass

defense enough opportunities to force mistakes from Poffenbarger and take home the win. 8. Furman( 10-2)SP+ rank: 19th Playoff results to date: beat Chattanooga 26-7 Title odds: 1.1 %( two weeks ago: 1.3 %)A powerhouse for the first 25 years or two of the FCS’existence(3 nationwide title games from 1985 to 2001, winning one), Furman slipped a bit in the 2000s.

In between 2006 and 2021, the Paladins won only two

championship game. However they reached the 2nd round last year and, in their 20th general playoff appearance, pummeled Chattanooga to reach the quarters this season.Former Paladins lineman Clay Hendrix has actually slowly crafted a dominant team, one that has only lost to South Carolina and Wofford, however that was with beginning quarterback Tyler Huff(the Southern Conference offensive

player of the year)and running back Dominic Roberto both out. They lead the nation with a plus-17 turnover margin and held Chattanooga to 200 total yards. They certainly deal with a high job in directing to Montana, but” defense journeys “is a football proverb, and a number of turnovers could make the Grizzly home crowd awfully worried.