Connelly’s ‘Ifs List’: How each CFP competitor can win it

Costs Connelly, ESPN Personnel WriterAug 3, 2023, 07:00 AM ET

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Costs Connelly is a personnel author for ESPN.com.We always think we know what’s coming at this point in the offseason. We understand who’s going to be the preseason No. 1 (in this case, two-time safeguarding national champ Georgia ), and we understand which blue bloods are especially loaded.We do not know everything, though. For starters, a preseason No. 1 group hasn’t really won the title in 5 years, so we most likely shouldn’t think about Georgia an outright slam dunk. For another thing, every significant contender constantly heads into the season with concerns we don’t know they’ll answer.This is my annual”Ifs List”piece– an effort to see how many “ifs”it takes me to turn a group into a genuine national title contender. The favorites do not need lots of; a couple of others might have more than you think.According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no nationwide champ over the last 22 seasons has started the season with title odds even worse than +5,000

, and just 3 started even worse than +1,900 (LSU was +4,000 in 2003, Auburn +5,000 in 2010, Ohio State +4,000 in 2014). Below are the 17 groups with nationwide title chances of +5,000 or much better per Caesars Sportsbook. They are arranged by the number of “ifs”that require to break their method to make them champs. As constantly, we’re not going to stress over obstacles like injuries to stars, which might strike any group at any time. Those issues are apparent and universal. (Note: SP +rankings noted below referral the updated numbers mentioned in this recent piece. You can find the total set of ratings here. )