CFP wagering response: Does the unpredictability around the Big 12
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Pamela Maldonado, Sports Betting AnalystNov 20, 2024, 01:13 PM ET Close Pamela Maldonado is a sports wagering analyst for ESPN.The newest College
Football Playoff(CFP )rankings have made things intriguing getting in Week 13. As groups jockey for position in the final weeks of the season, we’ve seen significant swings in both rankings and chances. From BYU’s surprising tumble to Tennessee’s precarious position– and the wide-open race for the Big 12 championship– this week’s motions use a fascinating glimpse into the volatile nature of college football’s postseason picture.Here are the most significant movers and the wagering ramifications that have emerged from the most recent rankings: All odds are precise since timestamp. For the current chances, go to
ESPN BET. Huge movers down the rankings BYU’s latest College Football Playoff ranking behind SMU (No. 13) has actually sparked controversy. AP Photo/Spenser Lots No. 14 BYU(No. 6 recently): BYU’s ranking behind SMU(No. 13 )has actually triggered controversy due to the fact that of the head-to-head result. BYU beat SMU on the roadway and has one ranked win(against Kansas State), while SMU has none. This disparity in the rankings has created significant discussion.The Cougars’ dramatic eight-spot drop was mostly due to their 17-13 loss to Kansas last weekend, ending their unbeaten season. Kansas, in spite of showing improvement, is ruled out a top-tier Huge 12 challenger. This drop indicates that the committee factored in BYU’s previous close wins (18-15 vs. SMU, 38-35 vs. Oklahoma State, and 22-21 vs. Utah)in its decision.Editor’s Picks
1 Associated Betting odds have likewise shifted considerably, with BYU moving from +100 to +300 to make the playoff, and -130 to -450 to miss. Nevertheless, BYU stays the highest-ranked Huge 12 team and the fifth-highest-ranked predicted conference champ. The Cougars still control their Big 12 title race outcome, with a conference championship appearance most likely if they win out.Week 13 provides a difficulty, however, with BYU as 3-point underdogs to Arizona State. While there might appear to be value in BYU at +300 to make the playoff, provided its 39% possibility according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), it’s a high-risk bet thinking about the present ranking and upcoming challenges.Ultimately, there’s limited
worth on either side of the playoff odds. For those favoring BYU, backing it at +125 to beat Arizona State may be more enticing. Care is advised offered the teams ‘opposing trajectories. The much safer approach might be to prevent these bets completely and wait on clearer worth opportunities to emerge.No. 11 Tennessee( No. 7 last week): Tennessee’s 31-17 loss to Georgia impacted its standing. With only UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining on their schedule, the Volunteers have actually restricted chances to impress the committee due to the fact that of the relatively weak strength of these opponents.Despite dropping to No. 11, Tennessee’s course to the playoff stays open. ESPN’s playoff predictor optimistically provides the Volunteers
an 83%chance of making the playoff, assuming triumphes versus UTEP and Vanderbilt. Nevertheless, this forecast appears at odds with the committee’s current ranking.The wagering odds show this uncertainty, however. At -135 to make the playoff, there might appear to be worth provided ESPN’s high projection. However, the committee’s ranking recommends these odds might be excessively optimistic.The +105 chances for Tennessee to miss out on the playoff might provide better value. This bet aligns more carefully with Tennessee’s existing ranking and the committee’s point of view.
The substantial shift in odds from recently highlights the increased uncertainty surrounding Tennessee’s playoff chances.Betting consideration: Arizona State +350 to win the Big 12 Champion It would take some essential losses from leading competitors, however there’s a path for Arizona State to win the Huge 12. Associated Press In Week 6, I suggested backing Colorado at 16-1 to win the Huge 12 Conference after 3 straight wins, including a 38-31 overtime win versus Baylor.Considering that wager, the Arizona State +350 bet ends up being an intriguing complementary alternative. Here’s the possible circumstance: In Week 13, Arizona State is favored by three points at home against BYU. A BYU loss would damage its Big 12 championship game potential customers.
If the Sun Devils beat the Cougars, their possibilities of making the championship game would increase to 7.04%, up from 2.64%before their win against Kansas State.Big 12 Standings Group Conference Record Overall Record BYU 6-1 9-1 Colorado 6-1 8-2 Arizona State 5-2 8-2 Iowa State 5-2 8-2 Arizona State requires extra assistance, which could come from Colorado’s game. The No. 16 Buffaloes are -2.5 at Kansas. The Jayhawks have been playing spoiler, with successive wins over Top 25 teams Iowa State and BYU, plus a two-point loss to now
No. 26 Kansas State. A Colorado loss to Kansas could complicate its course to the title game.Currently connected for 3rd in the Huge 12 with a 5-2 conference record, Arizona State has a realistic course, which becomes even more likely if both BYU and Colorado lose.In a possible three-way-tie circumstance with Colorado and Iowa State, Arizona State could emerge on top due to the combined gaining portion of conference opponents.This bet works as a wise hedge to the existing Colorado wager, supplying coverage for numerous situations in the unpredictable Huge 12. Even without a Colorado ticket, the +350 chances for Arizona State offer worth considering the existing standings, current strong type and potential outcomes.