CFP projections: How this weekend’s greatest games will affect the
Nov 24, 2023, 07:00 AM ET There is nothing bigger than No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan on Saturday, and the Allstate Playoff Predictor has weighed the chances of each team making the College Football Playoff depending upon the outcome.The predictor likewise has some unexpected results in looking ahead to the Pac-12 championship game, needs to sixth-ranked Oregon win against Oregon State on Friday and face No. 4 Washington in the champion in Week 14.
A look at the numbers as Competition Week has arrived.Ohio State-Michigan playoff take advantage of Opportunity to reach playoff,
depending on result, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor: Ohio State with a win:
> 99% Ohio State with a loss: 59%
Michigan with a win: 96%
Michigan with a loss: 19
%There are 2 factors the model is
a little greater on Ohio State: The FPI has the Buckeyes hardly ahead of Michigan in regards to team rating, though it’s close enough that if Michigan won the game there’s a good chance it would move ahead of Ohio State in FPI score. Second Of All, Ohio State presently ranks second in strength of record, while Michigan is third.Huskies are No. 4, however behind the Ducks?Washington moved into the committee’s top 4 this week– the Huskies currently rank initially in strength of record, it would be very hard to justify keeping them out of the leading 4 currently– however they have just the sixth-best playoff possibility( 37%) and are even less likely to make the playoff than one-loss Oregon.Chance to send out groups to CFP Conference 1 group 2 teams Big 10 99%40 %SEC 91% 7%Pac-12 85 %2%ACC 57 %Big 12 19 %Why?Well, if the Ducks make the Pac-12 national championship( there’s an 84% opportunity
| they will), | then they would have a 71 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| %opportunity | to beat Washington because contest | . If | they do complete as |
| a one-loss conference champion, | |||
| they would have an | |||
| 86% |
opportunity to
reach the playoff.Ultimately for Washington, this simply boils down to the FPI being skeptical of its true group strength– it considers the Huskies the 13th-best group in the nation– and a pretty heavy underdog to Oregon in a potential match. ESPN All undefeated chances?The simplest job the committee might ever have is if there are 4 undefeated Power 5 champions. That is in play if Washington, Florida State, Georgia and the winner of Ohio State-Michigan all win out. The opportunities of that situation occurring: 8%.