CFP Anger Index: What’s the committee’s issue with the ACC?

• David Hale, ESPN Personnel WriterNov 21, 2023, 08:28 PM ET Close ACC reporter.Joined ESPN in 2012.
• Graduate of the University of Delaware.The committee

will fulfill just two times more this year. So far, the task has been quite simple: Copy, paste. Certainly, there has actually been a lot chalk at the top of the rankings this year, it’s hardly worth the cost of the flights for the committee to meet about it.But even if the upsets have not sent out the rankings into turmoil right now, it deserves reconsidering some of the underlying presumptions we have actually utilized to inform the standings. Because 12 weeks into the 2023 season, there has actually not been much to be amazed about, however there’s constantly plenty to be upset about.Losses by groups ranked in the AP top 8 at this point in … 2014

-20 2015 -17 2016- 19 2017 -17 2018 -16 2019 – 12 2021 -15 2022 – 15 2023
– 6 ** all were vs groups ranked 13 or much better at the time.– (@ADavidHaleJoint)
November 19, 2023 This is the part where we’re supposed to lament the Seminoles’precipitous tumble from No. 4 to No. 5 after Jordan Travis was hurt in a win over North Alabama.Well, we’re not going to do that. Washington, as we kept in mind each of the previous 2 weeks, had as great a claim

as any to the leading 4, and after its win against Oregon State in Week 12, it has actually risen into the No. 1 area in ESPN’s strength of record. Nobody ought to be upset the Huskies are at No. 4. If anything, the Huskies must be distressed they’re not higher.The issue for Florida State is that’s where the conversation seems to end. But it should not. Ohio State and Michigan each have résumés underpinned practically totally by beating Penn State. Michigan’s next-best win is Maryland. Heck, 8 of Michigan’s 11 wins have come against teams ranked 60th or even worse in the Football Power Index (FPI). That’s a higher share of wins versus bottom-half groups than Tulane. Ohio State’s second-best win is a last-second rating versus Notre Dame (when the Irish used just 10 defenders), a group Louisville– FSU’s ACC title game opponent– beat by 13. And how do we know Penn State is excellent? The Nittany Lions ‘only pertinent win is over Iowa. Iowa, people! The Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like the Amish reward electrical cars.The season for both Michigan and Ohio State basically comes down to which one beats the other, a borderline one-game season, yet there’s no concern whatsoever that the winner will be in the playoff.FSU, though? Even if the Seminoles end up 13-0, there will be a chorus of folks who believe they do not belong because they play in the ACC or since they have actually played a lot of close games or, most significantly now, because they don’t have their

beginning QB.Of course, it’s also worth keeping in mind that Stetson Bennett wasn’t Georgia’s leading quarterback alternative in 2021. Nor was Jake Fromm when the Bulldogs made it to the nationwide title game in 2017. That 2017 game was won by a QB coming off the bench(Tua Tagovailoa

). Trevor Lawrence wasn’t Clemson’s starter for the very first 4 weeks of 2018 when the Tigers won everything. Max Duggan lost the beginning QB job for TCU coming out of fall camp last year, however he still led the Horned Frogs to the title game. And, naturally, there’s Cardale Jones, who came to Ohio State’s rescue in 2014 and won the Buckeyes a national title.Now, nobody is confusing Tate Rodemaker with Tagovailoa or Lawrence, but exists any evidence he can’t dip into least along with Jones, Bennett or Duggan? And the point here isn’t that anything is guaranteed for FSU post-Travis, however the history of No. 2(or No. 3)QBs in September making noise in January is in fact a lot more extensive than a lot of folks remember.So yes, Washington is deserving. So, too, is Florida State– with or without Travis. And if the Noles win the next two versus Florida and Louisville, there shouldn’t be a second’s worth of dispute. They remain in. Louisville’s one loss in the season was to Pitt. Andy Lyons/Getty Images A few fast”did you knows “on the Cardinals: Did you understand Louisville has six wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents? That’s more than any other group in the country.Did you understand Louisville has a road win over a ranked opponent, something Oregon, Alabama and Missouri are all missing out on from their résumés?Did you understand Louisville’s strength of record is much better than Missouri’s? And yes, Louisville lost to Pitt in a game in which its finest offensive player had 2 touches and

, in the rain and bad weather condition, the Cardinals turned the ball over three times.The Pitt loss is an anchor dragging Louisville for easy to understand reasons, however it certainly appears as if a dominant win over Notre Dame or a road win versus 8-3 NC State ought to count for something. And while this was mainly semantics

before Travis’injury at Florida State, there’s a very real situation now where Louisville runs the table the remainder of the method and earns an ACC champion with a 12-1 record.And if that happens, the committee has made it clear the Cards will still be at the back of the line when it pertains to playoff positioning. Let’s do a little blind résumé assessment here: Group A: 9-2, No. 17 in SP +and No. 11 in strength of record; finest win vs. SP+ No. 14, losses by a combined 19 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, one loss in the house, one on the road Group B: 9-2, No. 16 in SP +and No. 8 strength of record; finest win vs. SP+No. 11, losses by a combined 49 indicate groups ranked in the FPI leading 40, both losses on the roadway Team C: 9-2, No. 15 in SP+and No. 13 strength of record; best win vs. SP+No. 8, losses by a combined 8 indicate teams ranked in the FPI leading 40, both losses on the road Finest win goes to Team

C, closest losses go to Group C, and the best SP+ranking goes to

Group C. There’s more to the story, naturally, but that’s an excellent starting point to say Team C is the best of the lot, right?Well, Team C is the Sooners. Team B is Ole Miss, ranked one area greater,

and Team A is Missouri, ranked four areas greater. Even Penn State comes in ahead of Oklahoma.Oklahoma is being judged by its losses, and relatively the close L’s to Kansas and Oklahoma State may appear a bit worse than blowout defeats at the hands of Georgia or LSU. However Oklahoma was probably the better team in both losses, but a little bad timing and misfortune (and a couple of bad plays) made the distinction. Kansas is a solid team and was healthier when it beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma State fluctuates in between a house feline and a lion, and the Sooners took place to capture the Pokes on a lion day. But they likewise beat Texas, a team that has genuine nationwide title goals, which reveals where Oklahoma’s ceiling is.Where is Missouri’s or Penn State’s or Ole Miss’ceiling? Not nearly so

high. 4. Utah Utes( 7-4, unranked )We’ve reached the point in the season where four-loss groups remain in the top 25, yet Utah isn’t one of them. Is that fair?Editor’s Picks 2 Related Well, the Utes are likely harmed by their existing pattern line– losses in three of four, two of which were by 28 or more. However it deserves remembering all 4 losses were to teams presently in the committee’s top 16, while the Utes also have strong wins over Florida, UCLA and USC. Compare that to Tennessee, the highest ranked of the four-loss teams, and it’s a no-brainer

. Utah has the better strength of record, a head-to-head win over a team that beat

Tennessee and a higher-ranked best win(UCLA, No. 25 in SP +for Utah; No. 33 Kentucky for Tennessee). And even if we’re taking a” What have you provided for me recently?

“approach, the Vols, too, are coming

off back-to-back blowout losses.Could this all be a conspiracy by the committee to prop up the SEC and harm the eventual Pac-12 champion? You didn’t hear that from us. To its credit, the committee has regularly overlooked the fundamental win-loss record in favor of thinking about the context of those wins and losses. This is vital at the top of the rankings, however the exact same level of nuance isn’t constantly paid for to the bottom of the rankings. To which we give you the second-highest-ranked Group of 5 group: Liberty at No. 25.

The Flames are 11-0, which is laudable. But their best win came versus New Mexico State in Week 2, a time before the Aggies had actually learned how to play football. Their second-best win came against Jacksonville State, a program in its first year of FBS play. All 11 of Liberty’s wins have actually come against groups ranked 80th or worse in the current FPI. Compare that to, say, Toledo(10-1 with a win over Miami-Ohio)or UNLV( 9-2 with wins over San José State, Air Force and Vanderbilt )and it starts to appear as if Liberty benefits strictly from the no in the loss column. However would you take Liberty over Illinois? That’s where Toledo’s loss originated from. Or how about Michigan? Since half of UNLV’s losses came at the Big House.The race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s 6 bid is being led(rightfully )by Tulane,

but if the Green Wave mistake in the last 2 weeks (vs. red-hot UTSA and SMU in the AAC champion ), the quote should not come from Liberty just because it had the simplest path to an unbeaten season.