CFP Anger Index: Is Ohio State actually that far better
- David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 28, 2023,
- 08:15 PM ET Close ACC reporter.Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.We have actually reached the penultimate
rankings of the season, and the committee hasn’t needed to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unmatched year of success for the favorites– teams ranked in the leading 8 are 89-7 with all 7 losses concerning top-13 opponents– it has actually been mainly rinse and repeat.But due to the fact that
the majority of the leading 25 won’t play again until bowl season, the committee’s options today resonate more than the majority of, and that implies a few big names and playoff regulars have great reason to gripe.
The committee has actually made it clear because its first set of rankings this year that there’s a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but
boy– this still seems like a little bit of a stretch, does not it?A glance at how the four one-loss groups stack up: Top-35 wins by the FPI(essentially a “Quad 1” win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3
Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5
Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3
Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8
Alabama is among 4 one-loss teams. Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
That last category certainly helps Ohio State’s case, though the eye test suggests it’s a bit suspicious. Ohio State has 2 marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are excellent teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and recommend the Buckeyes deserve conversation. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemson group fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, on the other hand Penn State was uninformed it was legal to toss a pass beyond the line of skirmish. Notre Dame’s best win, in retrospect, came versus NC State. Penn State’s résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it’s the résumé builder the committee thinks it is?Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is a lot more outrageous, offered the Ducks’ absence of résumé, however that issue will look after itself in the Pac-12 title game.Ohio State
, on the other hand, is just being in the clubhouse, waiting on mayhem, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly aware that, at this point in the season, no group ranked even worse than sixth has made the playoff.It’s definitely possible that, must Bama or Texas include the all-important”conference champion “label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. However it’s likewise possible the committee sees a delicate problem of an Alabama-Texas argument(the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and has actually chosen to take a note from Iowa and punt on it entirely, as it performed in 2014 when it overlooked the thorny Baylor-or-TCU dispute in favor of … Ohio State! Wait, Washington remains in a clear win-and-in scenario and is set, if things stand pat, to prevent a first-round game against Georgia. That’s great news, right? Well, sure. The committee hasn’t snubbed the Huskies here, but that doesn’t suggest they have no factor to be angry, and the factor is that it truly should not come down to a win-and-in scenario.Washington has 2 more Quad 1 wins than Oregon and currently beat the Ducks. However Oregon gets a do-over and, if it occurs to win this one, whatever that took place throughout the routine season is out the window. Boom, Ducks are in, Washington is out. Why?Because everybody makes a great deal of cash from conference championship games, so they need to be played. But Washington currently won the Pac-12 while playing a tougher schedule and by beating each of the next leading 5 finishers in the conference standings. And yet, the Huskies still face a win-or-go-home situation in a title game, while Oregon deals with zero repercussions for losing in the regular season.In the lead-up to the first playoff, we talked constantly about preserving the stability of
the routine season– the very best in all of sports! Well, it’s not the playoff that has actually weakened the importance of the routine season. It’s the conference title games.And when the playoff broadens to 12, those games end up being even more troublesome.
Three two-loss groups rank ahead of Oklahoma, and none will use championship weekend. That makes the Sooners’position all but settled, and at No. 12, it most likely puts them on the outdoors looking in for a New Year’s Six game.Editor’s Picks
1 Associated So, is that fair?Well, we have actually already talked about Penn State’s paper-thin résumé. After Iowa, its second-best win is … Northwestern? And in two games versus elite competition (Michigan and Ohio State), the Nittany Lions scored a grand total of 27 points. Yikes.How about Missouri or Ole Miss?SP+ranks Missouri at 12, Oklahoma at 13 and Ole Miss at 14. FPI has Oklahoma well ahead(No. 8) with Ole
Miss at 15 and Missouri at 16. FEI concurs, putting the Sooners at No.
8, Missouri at No. 14 and Mississippi all the way down at No. 20. And if we look at résumés, Oklahoma has more wins vs. Quad 1 opponents(4 )than Mississippi( 3) or Missouri (2). There may be an affordable argument that Oklahoma is
n’t the very best of the two-loss teams, but it appears pretty clear the Sooners aren’t 4th either, and the ramifications of that oversight are huge, given the shift out of the New Year’s Six quotes.4. Every Group of 5 team being snubbed We’re not going to argue with
Liberty again– and in reality, the
Flames get a real test versus New Mexico State in the Conference U.S.A. title game, so a win would definitely make them deserving of consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl.But just being ranked has value for groups outside the Power 5, and yet only Tulane and Liberty made the cut.How is Tulane just No. 22? The Green Wave lost one game, without starting QB Michael Pratt, versus the No.
11 team in the country.Toledo? SMU? James Madison? Not a whiff.And yet here is Tennessee, checking in at No. 21, in spite of losing by a combined 71 indicate the three best teams it played … regardless of
losing by 13 to 5-7 Florida … in spite of its finest win coming against Kentucky (by 6!)… Tennessee remains in ahead of all those other teams.Honestly, Volunteers fans ought to probably be mad about this, too. The committee is making it harder to slam the performance of a team that in fact is worthy of a bit of blowback.5.
Anger Index writers(unranked, undefeated)All the chalk this year has actually made it awfully hard to keep finding factors to be outraged. Couldn’t we have gotten a few more upsets? One or