CFP Anger Index: Better call Paul
- David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 12, 2024, 09:05 PM ET Close College football reporter.Joined ESPN
- in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.The committee
has actually launched its 2nd crack at the top 25, and it’s (almost) all Huge Ten at the top.That may seem a bit unusual to the conference that boasts the most playoff-caliber groups and the most nonconference wins versus other Power 4 leagues, and likewise has Paul Finebaum there to advise everyone just how mad they ought to be at this affront to good judgment.With that, we’ll manage much of Finebaum’s research for him. Here’s this week’s Anger Index.
1. The SEC Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, and something appears perfectly clear: The SEC is the very best conference in college football. Have a look at Costs Connelly’s SP+ rankings, for instance, where nine of the top 17 teams are from the SEC. Or use ESPN’s FPI metric, where the SEC has areas 1, 2, 4, 5 and 9. Think about that the team currently ninth in the SEC standings, South Carolina, has three wins over SP+ top-40 teams and losses to the committee’s No. 10 and 22 groups by a combined total of five points.Yes, the SEC
‘s dominance and depth seem obvious.So, obviously, four of the top five groups in the committee’s rankings today are from the SEC.
AP Photo/Vasha Hunt Wait, no, sorry about that. We’re getting late word here that, in reality, it
‘s the Big 10 with groups No. 1, 2, 4 and 5 in this week’s rankings.It’s not that those 4 Big Ten teams aren’t any good. Oregon(No. 1)has actually chewed up and spit out nearly all comers this season. Ohio State (No. 2)is the best squad the gross domestic product of Estonia can purchase. Penn State (No. 4), well, the Nittany Lions still haven’t beaten Ohio State, but we presume the rest of the résumé is okay. Indiana (No. 5) is blowing the doors off people.But that’s it. The rest of the Big Ten is a mess. You require a magnifying glass to find Michigan’s QB production. Iowa lastly discovered how to score and in some way has actually worsened. Minnesota appeared like the next-best group in the conference, and the Gophers have losses to North Carolina and Rutgers.An absence of depth does not naturally mean the teams at the top are not elite. Undoubtedly, the other teams in any conference remain independent variables when resolving the ceiling for any one group. If the Kansas City Chiefs joined the Sun Belt, Patrick Mahomes would still be a magician and Andy Reid would still be stating”Bundle-a-rooskie-doo “in your nightmares.But the cold, hard truths are these: Indiana’s finest win came recently versus Michigan(No. 40 in SP+) by 3.
Penn State’s finest win (by SP +)came over 3 versus a below -.500 USC team that simply benched its QB. Ohio State is definitely elite on paper, but on the field, the Buckeyes’success is completely buoyed by a 20-13 win at Penn State, a group we likewise know very little about.The SEC gets flack for boasting of its achievement consistently, and to be sure, that story has actually frequently bolstered less-than-elite groups.
But this year, every sensible metric suggests the SEC’s production in fact matches its ego, and when Ole Miss( No. 11), Georgia(No. 12), Alabama(No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 15 )– all with 2 losses– are dogged as a result of playing in a league where every other team warrants an area in the top 25, it undermines the entire point of having a committee that can use its judgment instead of just take a look at the standings. Let’s compare two groups with blind résumés.Team A: 8-1 record, No. 14 in ESPN’s strength of record. Finest win came vs. SP+No. 20, loss came to a top-10 team by 3. Has four wins vs. Power 4 groups with a winning record, by approximately 14 points.Team B: 8-1
record, No. 11 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 28, loss concerned a top-15 team by 15. Has one win vs. a Power 4 group with a winning record, by 3.
Editor’s Picks 2 Associated So, which team has the better résumé?This shouldn’t take too long to figure out. Group A looks much better by practically every metric, right?Well, Group A is SMU, who checks in at No. 14 in this week’s ranking.Team B, though? That ‘d be the Mustangs’old pals from the Southwest Conference,
the Texas Longhorns. Texas checks in at No. 3. Maybe you’ve watched enough of both Texas and SMU to think the
eye test prefers the Longhorns. That’s fair.
However should the eye test represent 11 areas in the rankings? Eventually, the results need to matter more.Or, perhaps it’s the brand name that matters to the committee.
If that very same résumé came from a school that had not simply purchased its method into the Power 4 this year, it’s hard to picture they wouldn’t remain in the top 10 with ease. Chris Coduto/Getty Images Let’s dig into 3 different teams still hoping for a playoffquote, even if the chances are against them at this point.Team A: 7-2, 1 win over SP+leading 40. No. 28 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by an integrated 18 points.Team B: 7-2, 1 win over SP+top 40
. No. 25 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 13 points.Team C: 7-2, no wins over SP + top 40.
No. 24 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 21 points.You could split hairs here, however the bottom line is
none has a particularly compelling résumé, and they’re all pretty similar.So, who are they?Team B is Iowa State, which plunged from the rankings after losing two straight. However the committee isn’t supposed to care when you lost your games. Losing in September is not much better than losing in
November. At least
that’s what they say.Team A is Arizona State. Its 10-point loss to Cincinnati came without beginning QB Sam Leavitt and was due, at least in part, to a kicking game so distressing head coach Kenny Dillingham held an open tryout afterward. The Sun Devils and Cyclones are
two of 3 two-loss Power 4 groups unranked today(together with Pitt ), but unlike Iowa State and Pitt, Arizona State isn’t coming off back-to-back losses. The Sun Devils’ lack appears totally correlated to the fact that nobody believed this team would be any excellent going into the season, and so few people have looked carefully adequate to alter their minds that the committee feels comfy neglecting them.The team the committee can’t disregard, nevertheless, is Group C. That would be Colorado. Coach Prime has persuaded the world the Buffaloes are genuine, even if nothing on their résumé– a No. 77 strength of schedule, even worse than 7-2 Western Kentucky’s– recommends that’s anything near to a certainty.The Big 12 stays large open,
however it’s to the committee’s detriment that it has so eagerly dismissed 2 of the much better teams just because they’re not as enjoyable to speak about. Has Missouri played with fire this year? You betcha.
Simply recently, the Tigers were on the brink of falling to Oklahoma before the Sooners’woeful QB scenario raised its unsightly head again and the game ended in a 30-23 Tigers win.But here’s the important things about playing with fire: So long as you do not turn your living-room into an inferno, it’s actually quite impressive.Missouri is 7-2 with wins against SP+ Nos. 26 and 28, and its only losses are to the committee’s No. 10 and No. 15 teams. SP+ has Missouri at No. 17, though we can chalk that as much as Connelly’s hometown bias. However No. 23? After a top-10 season in 2023, do not the Tigers be worthy of a little benefit of the doubt? They presently trail 3 three-loss teams (Louisville, South Carolina and LSU)and lag Boise State, Colorado, Washington State and Clemson, who, integrated, have precisely one win over SP+ top-40 teams.There’s a likelihood that, need to Brady Cook not return to the lineup, Missouri will get waxed at South Carolina on Saturday, and after that the argument is moot. But the committee isn’t supposed to look ahead and take guesses at what it believes may take place(Florida State’s snub last year regardless of). It’s expected to judge based on what’s on the books so far, and putting Missouri this far down the rankings appears more than a little bit harsh. The committee threw a good bone to the non-Power 4 schools this week, with four teams ranked, consisting of No. 25 Tulane Green Wave. That seems been worthy of, provided Tulane’s current run. But what is it, precisely, that puts the Green Wave ahead of UNLV?UNLV has the No. 31 strength of record. Tulane is No. 32. UNLV has the No. 98 strength of schedule played. Tulane is No. 96. Tulane has a one-possession loss to a top-20 group. UNLV has a one-possession loss to
a top-20 team.The secret distinction in between the 2 is UNLV has wins against 2 Power 4 challengers– Houston and Kansas. Houston, by the way, just knocked off Kansas State, a group that beat Tulane.So maybe the committee ought to spread a bit more love outside the Power 4. Also Angry
: Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, unranked), Duke Blue Devils (7-3, unranked), Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, No. 12), Utah Utes Advertisement Mark Harlan(the Utes would be ranked if Huge 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark hadn’t rigged the system! )and UConn Huskies(7-3, unranked and hence prohibiting us from Jim Mora Jr. offering a”You wan na discuss playoffs?!?”tirade ).