Can Florida repeat? How good will BYU be? Our men’s
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Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf
ESPN Staff Writer
- Myron Medcalf covers college basketball for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2011.
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Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello
Basketball recruiting insider
- Jeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.
Jul 25, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
It has been more than 100 days since Florida cut down the nets in San Antonio. And in 100 more days, the Gators will begin their title defense when the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season begins.
Did the Gators do enough this offseason to bolster their chances of going back-to-back for the first time since 2006 and 2007? How have Houston and Duke positioned themselves to make another Final Four run? And will Auburn and the SEC return to dominance?
With a new class of freshman stars — including A.J. Dybantsa at BYU, Darryn Peterson at Kansas and Nate Ament at Tennessee — plus plenty of talent transferring to title contenders, it should be another entertaining season of hoops as the sport adapts to changes.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make 10 wild predictions, plus identify 90 more things to know about the upcoming season, from the biggest storylines to the top players to new coaches and beyond.
Jump to:
Top storylines | Wild predictions
Contenders | Teams that could make a jump
Best nonconference matchups
Freshmen | Transfers | Breakouts
All-America candidates | New coaches
10 storylines that could shape the season
Revenue sharing and possible NCAA tournament expansion drive more change. College basketball is undergoing a massive facelift. Committees for men’s and women’s Division I basketball did not reach a decision to expand the NCAA tournaments when they met in July, but stated that the possibility of increasing the field from 68 to 72 or 76 teams remains “viable.” A tournament expansion would be the second significant development for 2025-26, with the House vs. NCAA settlement paving the way for the first: A restructuring of the compensation model. Schools are now able to pay their athletes directly through revenue sharing, but it remains unclear how many name, image and likeness deals will ultimately be approved by the new clearinghouse to supplement rev share earnings. — Medcalf
Editor’s Picks
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Florida has the talent to make another title run. Before UConn won the national championships in 2023 and 2024, men’s college basketball hadn’t seen a repeat title winner since Florida in 2006 and 2007 — but Todd Golden’s Gators have the players to make it a trend. Alex Condon withdrew from the NBA draft to return to Florida, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh are also back, and top transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee were added in the portal. — Borzello
Braden Smith could be Purdue’s next Wooden Award winner. The Boilermakers came close to championship glory in 2024, when Zach Edey captured his second Wooden Award and led them to the national title game. Smith’s return could help Purdue match history: Only Duke has ever produced three Wooden Award winners in a four-year span — Elton Brand (1999), Shane Battier (2001) and Jay Williams (2002). Smith, the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year, will enter the season as the favorite to win the Wooden Award. He and coach Matt Painter are also driven to cut down the nets; both seem possible for a program that could start the year as the No. 1 team in America. — Medcalf
Braden Smith is coming off an All-American season in 2024-25. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Duke has placed its Final Four hopes on freshmen — again. Jon Scheyer & Co. defied modern-day trends when freshmen led the Blue Devils to a No. 1 ranking and a Final Four appearance last season — an anomaly in the era of increasingly transfer-heavy, experience-focused roster construction. Now, those freshmen were three top-10 picks: Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. But can Duke replicate that success? Scheyer again brings in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class, headlined by projected lottery picks Cameron Boozer, Dame Sarr and Nikolas Khamenia, plus Cameron’s five-star brother Cayden. — Borzello
It’s a new era for BYU with No. 1 recruit A.J. Dybantsa. The Cougars had the best offensive output in America for the last two months of the 2024-25 campaign, which ended with a trip to the Sweet 16 — their first second-weekend appearance since Jimmer Fredette starred for them in 2011. Now, Kevin Young’s team adds Dybantsa: a versatile, powerful, explosive 6-foot-10 athlete who could be the No. 1 pick in next summer’s NBA draft. A Final Four run by a team that wasn’t historically a candidate for players of Dybantsa’s caliber could send more elite talent to Provo, Utah, in the years ahead. The buzz has generated so much interest that a Hollywood producer has pitched a documentary about the 2025-26 season to Young’s staff. — Medcalf
The race to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft is on. Cooper Flagg was the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft since the day he reclassified into the 2024 high school class, but there won’t be the same lack of drama in the 2026 draft. There are several legitimate contenders for the top pick: BYU’s Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Tennessee’s Nate Ament — and don’t count out Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. — Borzello
Hubert Davis’ future at North Carolina. It was only three years ago that Davis’ team had a 15-point halftime lead against Kansas in the national title game. But a year after that, the Tar Heels missed the NCAA tournament altogether. And last year, they squeezed into the field as a polarizing pick before losing in the first round. Davis has reloaded after losing R.J. Davis and other standouts by adding five-star prospect Caleb Wilson and key transfers such as former Arizona big man Henri Veesaar. Yet, while Davis inked a contract extension through 2029-30 over the winter, North Carolina still expects to compete for national titles. If he can’t find a way to do that this season, chatter about his future will increase. — Medcalf
Hubert Davis is entering his fifth season at the helm for North Carolina. Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire
The future of the old coaching guard. Three ACC coaches stepped down last season: Virginia’s Tony Bennett, Miami’s Jim Larranaga and Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton. Bennett cited the changing landscape of college sports, while Larranaga and Hamilton had reached the natural end of their careers. It’s tough to predict who the next Bennett could be, but retirement could be on the horizon for a group of coaches at or near the top of the sport: Houston’s Kelvin Sampson will be 70 in the fall, Tennessee’s Rick Barnes is 71, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo is 70 and St. John’s coach Rick Pitino is 72. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gonzaga’s Mark Few or Kansas’ Bill Self call it quits in the not-so-distant future. — Borzello
Gonzaga’s final season in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs’ postseason success — including two national title game appearances since 2017 — has changed the national perception of mid-majors. They have been one of America’s top programs for years, but this will be the final chapter of a marriage that’s boosted the entire WCC as Gonzaga prepares to join the new Pac-12. The WCC’s potency in the collegiate landscape will shift significantly while the Bulldogs could become the face of the new Pac-12’s basketball lineup. — Medcalf
The next chapter of the St. John’s vs. UConn rivalry. While Louisville-Kentucky and Duke-North Carolina will always have deep history, the St. John’s-UConn rivalry is quickly gaining national relevance. Rick Pitino and Dan Hurley are two of the best — and most headline-grabbing — coaches in the country, and both teams should open the season ranked in the top five nationally. — Borzello
10 title contenders
Teams listed in order of Borzello’s and Medcalf’s consensus top 10
Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter’s team is poised for its third 1-seed in the past four years, led by All-America point guard Braden Smith, All-America candidate Trey Kaufman-Renn and three-year starter Fletcher Loyer. South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff also adds a different dimension down low. — Borzello
Florida Gators: Connecticut won back-to-back national titles in 2023 and 2024 after retaining key players from that first run. Todd Golden’s team could mimic that feat — with new stars in the mix, too. Boogie Fland, a former five-star prospect who played at Arkansas last season, will step into Walter Clayton Jr.’s role and play next to Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon — both top contributors from last year’s title team — on a roster built to win it all again. — Medcalf
Houston Cougars: After last season’s heartbreaking title-game loss to Florida, Houston should be right back in the mix for a national championship. Kelvin Sampson has three starters back from that group, led by guards Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. The Cougars also welcome the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class featuring three top-25 prospects. — Borzello
UConn Huskies: Dan Hurley has set the bar so high in Storrs that last season’s 24-win campaign and NCAA tournament appearance summed up a “down year” for the program. Alex Karaban and Solo Ball are back for a team that, on paper, looks like a contender again. But the viability of the program winning its third title in four years will depend on Silas Demary Jr., the 6-foot-5 former Georgia guard who will run UConn’s offense this season. — Medcalf
St. John’s Red Storm: Rick Pitino has completely transformed St. John’s since arriving two years ago, guiding the Red Storm to their first Big East regular-season and tournament championships since 1992 and 2000, respectively. Now, they’ll look to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999. Star big man Zuby Ejiofor returns, while Pitino went heavy in the transfer portal to fill out the rest of his roster. — Borzello
BYU Cougars: Kevin Young’s squad made 37% of its 3-point attempts and 59% of its shots inside the arc last season as the Cougars played offense at a level no team could match in the final eight weeks. Now, they add A.J. Dybantsa, the recipient of a highly publicized seven-figure NIL deal. Joined by three returning standouts from a Sweet 16 squad, Dybantsa could take BYU to unprecedented heights. — Medcalf
Louisville Cardinals: After leading Louisville to a remarkable 19-win turnaround in his first season with the Cardinals — including a 15-win improvement in the ACC — Pat Kelsey has set his sights higher in Year 2. They should have one of college basketball’s elite backcourts, led by top-10 recruit Mikel Brown Jr. and three talented transfers. — Borzello
Michigan Wolverines: Another second-year head coach coming off an impressive turnaround in Year 1, Dusty May guided the Wolverines to a 19-win improvement and a run to the Sweet 16. Two starters are back, and Michigan was aggressive in the portal, securing a class headlined by Yaxel Lendeborg — arguably the best transfer in the country and a projected first-round pick. — Borzello
Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Pope’s team caught the injury bug late last season and will start this season with a major injury question. Jayden Quaintance, a former five-star recruit and transfer from Arizona State, had surgery in March to repair a torn ACL. He should be ready at some point this season — it’s just a question of when. All-America candidate Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen (Florida), Jaland Lowe (Pitt) and Quaintance should form the nucleus of a team with serious Final Four aspirations once everyone is healthy. — Medcalf
Duke Blue Devils: A team that lost the Wooden Award winner and four more NBA draft picks would not usually be expected to compete for a national title a year after a Final Four run, but that’s the standard in Durham. The arrival of Cameron Boozer — the five-star prospect and son of former Blue Devils star Carlos Boozer — and his five-star prospect brother, Cayden Boozer, will keep the bar high for a Duke team that will chase Jon Scheyer’s first national title. — Medcalf
10 teams that could make a jump
“A jump” meaning into the national spotlight, into the top tier of their conference or onto the NCAA tournament bubble. Listed in alphabetical order.
Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks picked up steam late in the season and made a stunning run to the Sweet 16 that capped a turbulent year in John Calipari’s first season with the program. This year’s group, however, could be a sleeper to make a run at the national title. Darius Acuff is a projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA and will be surrounded by veteran talent in D.J. Wagner, Karter Knox and Trevon Brazile. If the Razorbacks can stay healthy — a challenge for them a year ago — Calipari could contend for his seventh trip to the Final Four. — Medcalf
Iowa Hawkeyes: All Ben McCollum does is win — and there’s no reason to think that will change at Iowa. The key piece of the Hawkeyes’ roster is Bennett Stirtz, an All-America point guard who played for McCollum at Northwest Missouri State and Drake. Alvaro Folgueiras and Brendan Hausen are two more shotmaking transfers. — Borzello
Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats spent millions on talent last offseason, but never had enough chemistry to avoid a 16-17 campaign. This season’s roster will be led by PJ Haggerty, the same PJ Haggerty who earned AP second-team All-America honors last season and led Memphis to the best season of the Penny Hardaway era. If Jerome Tang can get this talented group — which also features Serbian standout Andrej Kostić — on the same page, it should get back into the NCAA tournament. — Medcalf
Miami Hurricanes: During stints as an assistant with Texas, Kentucky and Duke, Jai Lucas was known as a top recruiter who helped all three programs land McDonald’s All-Americans and high-level transfers. In his first head coaching role at Miami, he has enough to help the Hurricanes reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2023. Former Indiana standout Malik Reneau and Big Ten tournament hero Tre Donaldson — his buzzer-beater sent Michigan to the title game — will link up with a strong recruiting class to try to end that drought. — Medcalf
NC State Wolfpack: When NC State hired Will Wade back in March, the assumption was that an influx of talent would follow him to Raleigh. That looks correct so far. The Wolfpack were aggressive in the portal, landing a group led by All-America candidate Darrion Williams, also bringing in top-25 recruit Matt Able. — Borzello
North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina’s admission to the last NCAA tournament created so much controversy that the West Virginia governor held a news conference and blasted the selection committee for picking the Tar Heels over the Mountaineers, who had a reasonable case for inclusion. But this year’s team could avoid drama if Caleb Wilson — the No. 5 recruit of 2025 — lives up to the hype. Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar, returnee Seth Trimble and Wilson constitute a trio that could place the Tar Heels solidly in the NCAA tournament field. — Medcalf
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Last season was filled with missteps, injuries and disappointments for a Notre Dame team that finished under .500 in Micah Shrewsberry’s second campaign with the program. If this year’s group stays healthy, however, the Fighting Irish could contend for a spot on the bubble (or better) after not reaching the NCAA tournament since 2022. The return of Markus Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry, who missed 15 combined games due to injury, plus the addition of Jalen Haralson (19th in ESPN 100) make it all seem possible. — Medcalf
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes showed flashes of their potential last season, but couldn’t quite string together a consistent run of form. With a terrific trio back in Bruce Thornton, Devin Royal and John Mobley Jr. — plus the additions of Christoph Tilly and Brandon Noel up front — Jake Diebler’s team should find itself in the NCAA tournament. — Borzello
San Diego State Aztecs: The Aztecs made the NCAA tournament last season, but lost by 27 to North Carolina in the First Four. We’re expecting Brian Dutcher’s team to stick around a little longer next March. Miles Byrd is an NBA prospect, while Reese Waters is back from injury and Magoon Gwath is ready to take the next step. Transfer Sean Newman Jr. will be given the keys to the offense. — Borzello
USC Trojans: Beating Michigan State on the first day of February provided some optimism entering the stretch run last season, but the Trojans won just two Big Ten games the rest of the way. They should be talented and more consistent this season. A perimeter trio made up of proven high-major producers Rodney Rice and Chad Baker-Mazara lead the way. — Borzello
10 wild predictions
The national title winner will be the first in its program history. They’ve both fallen short in recent years, but Houston and Purdue are equipped to achieve what their programs have yet to do: win a national title. St. John’s, Texas Tech and BYU will be contenders, too. Regardless, I’m predicting a new name will be entered into the men’s college basketball championship record. — Medcalf
The SEC won’t be as strong, but it will repeat its 14 bids. It’s nearly impossible for the SEC to be as historically strong again; it took a perfect storm for the league to produce what it did last season. We don’t expect two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds from the conference again, but I won’t be surprised to see it run back its record-setting 14 bids — at least 12 schools already look like comfortable NCAA tournament teams on paper. — Borzello
John Calipari will face Kentucky in the Final Four. Darius Acuff is a top newcomer for an Arkansas squad that made a run to the Sweet 16 last March, giving the Razorbacks depth and experience that last year’s group lacked. And while Kentucky might need some time to get off the runway, it could have one of the nation’s most talented rosters as March approaches if Jayden Quaintance is healthy. — Medcalf
John Calipari enters his second season at Arkansas. Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
Pat Kelsey will win his first NCAA tournament game — and get Louisville to the Final Four. Entering last March, the one knock on Todd Golden was his lack of an NCAA tournament win. He erased any doubt in pretty emphatic fashion. Kelsey will be the next coach to go from zero to a Final Four. Louisville’s backcourt is among the best in the country and the Cardinals have the perfect blend of experience, depth and star power. — Borzello
Cameron Boozer will be the most productive of the elite freshmen. A.J. Dybantsa is arguably the most fascinating player entering the season, while Darryn Peterson is battling Dybantsa to be the No. 1 pick in the next NBA draft. But Boozer is a threat to finish every game with 20 points and 10 rebounds. He has also been more productive than Dybantsa and Peterson when they have suited up together for USA Basketball or in all-star games. Boozer’s competition also might be slightly easier in the ACC than the Big 12. — Borzello
Nate Ament will be the top freshman in the country. When Rick Barnes tells you that a young player will be a star, you should believe him. From Kevin Durant to Dalton Knecht, Barnes has molded some of the top players in the country over the past 30 years. He recently told ESPN that Ament, a possible top-five pick in next year’s NBA draft, could be a special player this season. The 6-9 forward could be the next star under Barnes. — Medcalf
Thomas Haugh will be Florida’s All-American. Haugh has started just seven games through two seasons in Gainesville, but he’s poised to have a breakout junior campaign as an every-game starter for the Gators. He’s 6-foot-9, can score in different ways and is more than capable of hitting three or four 3s in a game. Florida’s transfer backcourt is getting the hype, but Haugh is ready to take a step forward. — Borzello
Thomas Haugh averaged 9.8 points for Florida in 2024-25. Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Jalil Bethea will be the nation’s surprise breakout transfer. Bethea was one of the more disappointing freshmen in the country last season, barely carving out a role during the first half of the schedule at Miami before seeing an increase in minutes down the stretch. But Bethea was a top-10 prospect in the 2024 class and is an elite shotmaker — he’s exactly the type of player Nate Oats’ offense enhances. — Borzello
Two of the game’s top coaches will retire or resign, creating a domino effect. Kelvin Sampson (69), Tom Izzo (70) and Rick Barnes (71) are still passionate, but few of their peers remain. Then there are coaches like Bill Self and Mark Few, who could do this for many more years but may not want to navigate more changes to the game. If any of the top names make big moves, the entire collegiate landscape will shift. — Medcalf
A team will make 85% of its free throws this season, shattering the record. That sounds ridiculous, but the top free throw shooting teams in the country are improving. Ten years ago, only two teams made at least 78% of their attempts from the charity stripe. Last year, 20 reached that mark while four of them eclipsed 80%, led by Wisconsin’s 82.6% clip. We’re progressing toward unprecedented numbers in men’s college basketball. This will be the year a team beats Villanova’s record-setting 83% rate from 2021-22. — Medcalf
10 nonconference matchups to watch
Kentucky at Louisville, Nov. 11: This rivalry game is always entertaining, but with Louisville’s offseason surge under Pat Kelsey, this matchup will regain the energy it has lacked in recent years.
BYU at UConn in Boston, Nov. 15: A.J. Dybantsa will head back to his home state of Massachusetts to face UConn, a national title contender. The atmosphere at TD Garden should be electric.
Duke at Kansas, Nov. 18: The result of this game will matter come Selection Sunday, but it’s also an opportunity for Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson to strengthen their respective cases to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft.
St. John’s at Iowa State, Nov. 24: Rick Pitino has a new roster led by transfers Ian Jackson (North Carolina) and Bryce Hopkins (Providence), so this early-season test against a strong Iowa State team could shed more light on the Red Storm’s ceiling.
Gonzaga at Alabama, Nov. 24: Gonzaga’s Tyon Grant-Foster, who had an up-and-down season at Grand Canyon last year, and Alabama’s Jalil Bethea, a former five-star prospect, will have an early chance to prove they can be the sparks their teams need this season.
Houston at Tennessee, Nov. 25: You’ll likely see a fleet of NBA scouts and executives in the stands at this matchup with Tennessee’s Nate Ament, a projected top-five pick in next summer’s draft, and Houston’s Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler, a pair of projected first-round picks, all on the court in this showcase.
North Carolina at Kentucky, Dec. 2: A win over a top-10 Kentucky team with national title aspirations would be enough to quiet any early chatter about Hubert Davis’ future in what should be a pivotal season for the Tar Heels’ coach.
UConn at Florida in NYC, Dec. 9: These two teams staged a thriller in the second round of last year’s NCAA tournament, tied with 2:12 to play before Florida rallied to win. This rematch could be a preview of the national championship.
Purdue vs. Auburn in Indianapolis, Dec. 20: This matchup will inform how much work Bruce Pearl’s new-look team will need to compete in the SEC while Matt Painter will get another shot at a signature win on a nonconference slate that could include matchups against Alabama, Texas Tech and Iowa State, too.
Michigan at Duke, Feb. 21: It’s the timing of this matchup coming just weeks before Selection Sunday that matters. It could settle any potential debates within the committee if both teams are vying for a top seed by then.
10 freshmen to watch
Listed in order of their ESPN 100 ranking.
A.J. Dybantsa, SF, BYU (No. 1 in ESPN 100): The No. 1 prospect in the ESPN 100, Dybantsa is blazing his own trail by eschewing the blue bloods to join a BYU program generating headlines over the past year. He’s the most anticipated player heading into this season.
Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas (No. 2): Ranked just behind Dybantsa in the recruiting rankings, Peterson is ESPN’s projected No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft. He’s an elite scorer, as evidenced by his 61-point performance against Dybantsa’s Utah Prep in February.
Cameron Boozer, PF, Duke (No. 3): Boozer is one of the most decorated high school prospects in recent history, winning two gold medals with USA Basketball, four state titles and three straight Peach Jam championships on the Nike circuit. He should be a double-double threat from day one.
Nate Ament, SF, Tennessee (No. 4): In what should be a loaded 2026 NBA draft class, there’s an argument to be made that Ament has the highest ceiling of the group. He’s 6-11 with high-level shotmaking ability.
Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina (No. 5): He might not emerge as the most productive freshman this season, but Wilson has huge long-term upside, and Hubert Davis will need him to make an impact immediately. He’s 6-9 with a versatile skill set.
Darius Acuff, PG, Arkansas (No. 7): If John Calipari is coaching a team with Final Four aspirations, chances are he has an elite point guard running the show — and that should be Acuff this season. He’s a terrific offensive player who will get others involved.
Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville (No. 8): The hype for Brown’s debut is at an all-time high after he had arguably the best performance for the USA Basketball U19 World Cup team, leading them in points (14.9) and assists (6.1) en route to the gold medal this summer.
Tounde Yessoufou, SF, Baylor (No. 9): The all-time scoring leader in the state of California, Yessoufou is as good a pure bucket-getter as you’ll find in the 2025 class. He’s a physical wing who can get points at all three levels.
Koa Peat, PF, Arizona (No. 10): Another highly decorated high school prospect, Peat has won three gold medals with USA Basketball and four state championships at the high school level. Consistently productive, he led the U19 World Cup team in rebounding (6.9).
Braylon Mullins, SG, UConn (No. 17): Mullins was arguably the best perimeter shooter in the 2025 class, making better than 47% of his 3-pointers last spring and summer on the Adidas circuit, then repeating that feat as a high school senior. — Borzello
10 transfers to watch
Listed in order of ESPN’s pre-commitment transfer rankings.
PJ Haggerty, PG, Kansas State (No. 1 in ESPN’s transfer rankings): Haggerty was one of the most proven producers in the portal, coming off a season in which he earned second-team All-America honors and was named AAC Player of the Year. He has a chance to put up big numbers for Jerome Tang.
Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa (No. 2): Stirtz is following Ben McCollum to his third school after starting for Iowa’s new head coach at Northwest Missouri State and Drake. The Missouri Valley Player of the Year is a potential first-round pick if he can continue his progression in the Big Ten.
Yaxel Lendeborg, PF, Michigan (No. 3): Lendeborg was a likely first-round pick in the NBA draft, but he withdrew his name and headed…