Buzz Trap Bet: Anticipate mayhem in conference championship games
(img src =”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2023%2F1130%2Fr1260036_1296x729_16%2D9.jpg”alt =”title”)Nov 30, 2023, 11:00 AM ET “Present a little anarchy, disturbed the developed order and whatever ends up being chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you understand the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”
I’m not going to advocate for the Joker’s political ideologies from “The Dark Knight”– one of the best movies ever– but I am going to agree with how that quote can use to the College Football Playoff. As an alum of a Department I-AA football school (shoutout to Villanova in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday!) I don’t have a significant attachment to FBS teams. My buddy went to Alabama for law school, so I meddle Crimson Tide fandom occasionally. However I mostly root for chaos and upsets.
Which might make this the best conference championship week of college football in rather a long time.
Omitting the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, just 7 1-loss Power 5 groups have missed out on the CFP (less than one each year). With the correct amount of turmoil, we could have 4 of them this year alone. Sure, that would need Iowa Hawkeyes to beat Michigan Wolverines, Louisville Cardinals to beat Florida State Seminoles, Alabama to beat Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks to beat Washington Huskies and Texas Longhorns to beat Oklahoma State Cowboys. However it’s possible!
One loss Power 5 groups to miss CFP
| Group | Conference champion | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame (2021 ) | No | Cincinnati makes CFP |
| Ohio State (2018 ) | Yes | 3 unbeatens, 1-loss Oklahoma makes CFP |
| Wisconsin (2017 ) | No | 1-loss champ Alabama makes CFP |
| Ohio State and Iowa (2015 ) | No | |
| Baylor and TCU (2014 ) | No | No Big 12 title |
| ))Just 1-loss Power 5 champ to miss CFP |
The betting public appears to be on the other side, expecting the status quo to continue. All 4 unbeaten groups were seeing the majority of tickets on the spread at ESPN BET as of Tuesday night.
Ticket Divides for Notable Power 5 Champion Games
| National championship | Spread | Handle |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | Georgia (-5 ) | 71% of tickets |
| Huge 10 | Michigan (-23 ) | 58% of tickets |
| Pac-12 | Washington (+9.5 ) | 75% of tickets (also 95% of ML tickets) |
| ACC | Florida State (-2.5 ) | 72% of tickets |
| Big-12 | Oklahoma State (+14.5 ) | 69% of tickets (71% of ML tickets) |
| At ESPN BET– as of Tuesday night |
The general public appears to believe turmoil will not happen at all. The above scenarios paint a picture where we have four unbeatens and no 1-loss Power 5 groups. In that circumstance, even the infamously indecisive Chidi Anagonye from The Good Place could select the playoff groups with no stress.
But we need to have some chaos right? These head coaches need to earn their incomes in some way. As the Joker notes, “If you’re proficient at something, never ever do it for free.”
Trend or Trap
We probably won’t see Gotham come down into true turmoil, but might there be a few upsets brewing? Here’s a quick look at a few of the significant wagering storylines in Power 5 national championship this weekend.
( img src =”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2483.png&w=110&h=110″width =”50″ /)(img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/264.png&w=110&h=110″width= “50”/)No. 5 Oregon( -9.5, 65.5 )at No. 3
Washington Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV Oregon is a 9.5-point favorite over Washington regardless of losing their very first meeting this season. It’s the first time because 2020 that a team has been at least a nine-point favorite in a same-season rematch after losing the very first conference. That year, Clemson won and covered an 11-point spread versus Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.
Largest Power 5 Favorites in Rematch After Losing First Fulfilling
| Team | Challenger | Spread (Covered?) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon (2014 ) | Arizona | -14.5 (Yes) | Won |
| Clemson (2020 ) | Notre Dame | -11 (Yes) | Won |
| Oklahoma (1978 ) | Nebraska | -11 (No) | Won |
| Oregon (2023 ) | Washington | -9.5 (?) | ? |
| Oklahoma (2018 ) | Texas | -9.5 | Won |
| Wisconsin (2011 ) | Michigan State | -9.5 | Won |
This doesn’t bode well for the Huskies, who hold on to success in Seattle however were considerably beat in most of the manner ins which are predictive progressing. Washington was outgained by 126 backyards, had nine fewer minutes of possession, and blew an 11-point lead. The Ducks were 0-3 on fourth down, including numerous belongings inside the 10-yard line and a 3rd opportunity to seal the victory with 2 minutes left. Even after all that, Oregon missed a 43-yard basket that would have sent the game to OT.
Washington deserved the win, and Michael Penix Jr. had his shining moment, but they were not the better team in October, and they will not be the much better group in December. I can’t await this game, however I would lean towards Oregon if required to make a choice here. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 15-3-1 ATS vs Washington given that 2004 (consisting of covering two months back as 3.5-point pets).
Washington is the hero the College Football Playoff should have, however not the one it needs today.
(img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/61.png&w=110&h=110″ width=”50 “/)(img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/333.png&w=110&h=110″width=”50 “/)No. 1 Georgia at No.
8 Alabama (-5.5, 54.5)Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Arena, Atlanta, GA This is the fourth time Alabama has
| been an underdog given that 2010. All 4 of those games have actually protested Georgia. Alabama | ||
|---|---|---|
| as underdog under Nick Saban given that 2019 Year Spread Outcome 2023 vs. No. 1 | Georgia( | |
| +6)??? 2021 vs. No. 3 Georgia (+2.5 ) | Lost by 15 | |
| 2021 | vs. No. 1 Georgia (+6 ) | Won by 17 |
| 2015 | at No. 8 Georgia (+1 ) | Won by 28 |
The chart above paints a similar image of Alabama as an underdog, sometimes stimulating the upset and winning huge, or losing by several scores.
On the other hand, the Bulldogs are the Harvey Dent of college football. You either lose as an underdog, or you win so often that you see yourself end up being the villain. Georgia has lost just once in the last 3 calendar years, an SEC title game defeat to Alabama, which they avenged one month later on.
Will the brand-new Goliath fall? We’ll discover on Saturday afternoon.
The Bets
(img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/61.png&w=110&h=110″ width =”50 “/ )(img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/333.png&w=110&h=110″width=”50″/)” Two-Face”: split bets on Georgia-Alabama As I discussed above, we have actually seen two variations of this Alabama group this season. We have actually likewise seen Georgia’s offense look unstoppable for much of the last month because Brock Bowers returned. There’s a factor the overall opened at 49.5 and is now at 54.5 and pushing greater.
Ideally you could have gotten these bets in with more closing line worth, but the principle is the very same. I anticipate the over to hit, and I also expect Alabama to win outright, or Georgia to win in dominant fashion.
That suggests using Harvey Dent’s fortunate coin and getting significant plus-money odds on two separate outcomes. On one side, provide me Alabama ML (+180) and over 54.5 (-115) parlayed together. On the other side, I’ll take Georgia -11.5 (+175) and the over 54.5 (-115) in another parlay. Both would pay out over 4-to-1.
Place 0.5 systems on each bet, so you have a complete wager on the game, and if 1 of them hits, you’re still going to win more than double your money.
One last parting nugget of info: Alabama is 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread as an underdog under Nick Saban. Breaking that down, all 6 outright wins are likewise covers. Which indicates in all five Saban losses as an underdog, they failed to cover the spread, which gives me more confidence in the split bet above.
( img src=”https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2567.png&w=110&h=110″width =”50 “/ )SMU +3.5 (-115), SMU ML (+150), SMU
-6.5 alt line Another various method to balance out your bets is to use a “ladder” when you think the forecast or line is method off the market.
In this circumstance, ESPN Analytics has SMU as an 8.3-point favorite against Tulane in the AAC title game, listing the Mustangs as the 20th finest group and the Green Wave as the 50th best team according to FPI.
You might just say “I’m really positive SMU covers here” and leave it at that. You could likewise state “SMU ought to win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline bet”. Or a riskier wagerer might take the exact FPI forecast and discover an alternate line for SMU -8.5.
Laddering permits you to alleviate danger on a total bet while banking in some additional benefit for a line that has the potential for extreme outcomes. My suggestion for this bet would be a half-unit on SMU to cover +3.5, and a quarter-unit on each of the next two alternatives listed above.
If SMU wins by a goal or more, all 3 bets pay and you benefit a lot more thanks to the danger you took. If SMU covers however does not win, you end up about breakeven. However the reason for using less than complete bets on each is that if SMU fails to cover the +3.5, you only lose one full unit rather than three at one time.