AP Top 25 preseason survey: The biggest early-season games for

Aug 12, 2024, 12:20 PM ET You understand college football season is right around the corner when the Associated Press releases its preseason Top 25.

Georgia is on top of the survey, easily ahead of No. 2 Ohio State. Huge Ten beginner Oregon ranks 3rd, SEC newcomer Texas is 4th and Alabama, minus Nick Saban, is fifth.To take a look at

the bigger image and simply how good– or bad– the Leading 25 teams could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI projected win totals for each team based upon 20,000 simulations of the whole season performed by our ESPN Statistics & Details team, however to find a high and low, we used the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a flooring in terms of anticipated record for each team in 2024, with exceptionally unlikely outliers removed. In other words, we determined the reasonable best-case and worst-case situations for every team.What can we

anticipate for each group in the preseason AP Leading 25? If whatever goes right, what might each team’s record be? And if the worst situation plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every single group, then asked our college football press reporters which game in the early part of each group’s schedule would offer us a great indicator of whether the team would be most likely to reach its ceiling or surface closer to its flooring.

Ceiling: 12-0|Flooring: 8-4 Secret game: vs. Clemson at Atlanta, Aug. 31 The Bulldogs ‘season opener against the Tigers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will supply the very first take a look at a revamped passing game that lost star tight end Brock Bowers and receivers Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Quarterback Carson Beck will play behind one of the very best offending lines in the country, however Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell, Arian Smith and others will be asked to step up on the perimeter. How quickly can Beck establish in-game chemistry with his brand-new pass catchers versus what should be another salty Clemson defense?– Mark Schlabach

Ceiling: 12-0|Floor

: 8-4 Secret game: vs. Iowa, Oct. 5 The Buckeyes will wait a while for a true gauge, as they do not deal with a nonleague challenger from a power conference. An Ohio State offense pegged to be amongst the country’s best will face an Iowa defense that each year is among the stingiest and most opportunistic and includes stars such as defensive back Sebastian Castro. Coach Ryan Day likewise is looking for more consistency from the offending line, which need to be stressed by protective end Deontae Craig and the Iowa front.– Adam Rittenberg

Ceiling: 12-0|Floor:

9-3 Key game: vs. Ohio State, Oct. 12 While the Ducks can not ignore the similarity Boise State, Oregon State and Michigan State early on in their schedule, the Oct. 12 match versus Ohio State in Eugene will set the course for their season– and their title goals. It will be Oregon’s first marquee matchup as part of the Big Ten and there’s a decent opportunity both groups will go into the game ranked among the leading five in the country.– Paolo Uggetti

Ceiling: 12-0|Flooring:

8-4 Key game: vs. Oklahoma at Dallas, Oct. 12 Power conference previews Whatever you require to learn about the power conferences, consisting of top players, power rankings and games to enjoy. SEC|Huge 10|Huge 12|ACC Forget the change of

conference address, Oklahoma still matters as much as ever. For one, OU has won four of the last 5 matchups with Texas, including last season’s 34-30 stunner when the Sooners drove 75 yards in 1:02 to win. However following a big nonconference journey to Michigan in Week 2, the Horns should be 4-1 at worst when they face the Sooners. A week later on, Georgia concerns Austin with SEC title and CFP hopes on the line.– Dave Wilson Ceiling: 12-0|Floor: 7-5 Secret game: vs. Georgia, Sept. 28 Not just will

this be Kalen DeBoer’s very first SEC game as Alabama’s coach, however it’s

versus Kirby Smart and Georgia, among the most gifted groups in the country. Everyone will be seeing, specifically an Alabama fan base that isn’t used to losing at home. Nick Saban went 108-9 at Bryant-Denny Stadium as Alabama’s coach and lost just one SEC game in the house in his last 8 seasons.– Chris Low Ceiling: 10-2|Floor: 6-6 Secret game: at South Carolina, Oct. 5

Ole Miss has one of the most forgiving schedules to open the season in college football. The Rebels do not go on the roadway in the SEC up until they deal with the Gamecocks in Week 6. Williams-Brice Arena is undervalued in regards to hard places to play, especially during the night. If Ole Miss rolls in there 5-0, which it should, we’ll find out a lot about the Rebels’ maturity in a hostile environment.– Low

Ceiling: 12-0|Floor:

8-4 Secret game: vs. Texas A&M, Aug. 31 Sure, the Aggies were simply 7-6 last year– but that was another era. Mike Elko arrived this offseason and has injected both talent and energy into a program desperately in need of it, so this will unquestionably be a marquee Week 1 match. Moreover, the game is in College Station, where even in 2015’s mediocre Aggies group went 6-1. Winning on the road would be a substantial achievement for the Irish. However possibly the most considerable takeaway from this matchup will be at the line of scrimmage. Texas A&M might have as good a pass rush as any group in the country, giving Notre Dame’s new-look offensive line– which just recently lost beginning left deal with Charles Jagusah for the season– a huge test. If it passes that test, the Irish might easily open the season 8-0 before hosting Florida State in early November.– David Hale

Ceiling: 12-0|Flooring

: 8-4 Key game: at USC, Oct. 12 Though the season opener at West Virginia figures to be difficult, Penn State has a manageable first 5 games to the schedule. This trip to Los Angeles, nevertheless, kicks off a rugged four-game stretch that consists of Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington. A win over the Trojans would set the tone for the rest of the season– and potentially catapult Penn State into the thick of the playoff discussion.– Jake Trotter

Ceiling: 11-1|Floor: 6-6 Editor’s

Picks 2 Related Secret game: vs. Texas, Sept. 7

The protecting champs will deal with the first of 2 conferences with CFP participants from last season in a national display game at Michigan Arena. Michigan could still be figuring out its quarterback position, where seventh-year player Jack Tuttle and dual-threat junior Alex Orji are both top candidates. A Wolverines defense now led by veteran organizer Wink Martindale and including stars such as cornerback Will Johnson and defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will be evaluated by quarterback Quinn Ewers and a Texas offense that should flourish in advance and on the perimeter.– Rittenberg

Ceiling: 12-0|Flooring: 6-6 Secret game: vs. Georgia Tech at Dublin, Aug. 24 Opening in Ireland versus a good Georgia Tech team, then following that up with a Labor Day night game in the house versus Boston College, must give us a good feel for where Florida State stands right out of the gate. On paper, some might anticipate the Seminoles to roll over both the Yellow Jackets and Eagles. However playing overseas, no matter the opponent, supplies a special set of challenges. And Boston College almost upset Florida State a season ago. 2 more games in the very first half of the schedule to keep an eye on: at SMU on Sept. 28, then home vs. Clemson on Oct. 5.– Andrea Adelson

Ceiling: 11-1|Flooring

: 7-5 Key game: at Texas A&M, Oct. 5 Missouri’s very first four opponents this fall– Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt– won a combined 14 games during the 2023 season, so the Tigers’ very first true test might not come till they take a trip to College Station on the first weekend in October. A fairly favorable schedule this fall suggests Missouri should benefit from its chances to publish top quality wins. A triumph at Kyle Field would strengthen the Tigers’ postseason hopes and hand Eli Drinkwitz a résumé-cushion before late-season conferences with Alabama and Oklahoma.– Eli Lederman

Ceiling: 11-1|Flooring:

5-7 Secret game: at Oklahoma State, Sept. 21 The Utes ‘real intro into the Huge 12 will come Sept. 21 when they head to Stillwater to take on against Oklahoma State. Kyle Whittingham’s team is anticipated to contend for the conference title and a win against the Cowboys– who expect to compete for that same title– would set them well on their way to reaching that objective.– Uggetti

Ceiling: 10-2|Flooring

: 5-7 Key game: vs. USC at Las Vegas, Sept. 1 The Tigers won’t need to contend previous Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and receivers Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington in the opener in Las Vegas, but the Trojans ought to still be a great test for LSU’s rebuilt defense. The Tigers were woefully inefficient at stopping challengers in 2023, leading Brian Kelly to tempt Missouri protective organizer Blake Baker to Baton Rouge. USC quarterback Miller Moss played well in a 42-28 victory over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, throwing for 372 yards with 6 goals.– Schlabach

Ceiling: 11-1 |

. Flooring: 6-6 Conference breakdowns To assist you get ready for the 2024 season, Expense Connelly is previewing every conference and breaking down the top players and postseason contenders.

Sneak peeks”Key game: vs NC State, Sept. 21 We’re tempted to state the Georgia game will be the telltale matchup of the season for Clemson, however that’s like evaluating Clemson’s chances to win a game of Hungry, Hungry Hippos against an actual hippopotamus. It’ll be interesting, but it probably isn’t pertinent to what the rest of the season will appear like. The Week 3 match with the Wolfpack– a group that has beaten Clemson two of the past 3 years and is far more gifted in 2024 than in either of those previous seasons– will be a far better sign of the Tigers’ ACC title hopes and something of a preview of how well Dabo Swinney’s crew will hold up 2 weeks later on against Florida State.– Hale

Ceiling: 11-1|Flooring: 6-6 Key game: vs. NC State at Charlotte

, North Carolina, Sept. 7 After a home opener with Chattanooga, Tennessee will get an early test in Week 2 versus NC State at Bank of America Stadium. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s very first regular-season start away from Knoxville will come versus a Wolfpack secondary that led the ACC in interceptions last season. A gifted offense led by Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall ought to present an early challenge to a promising Volunteers defense. In Charlotte, Josh Heupel & Co. can declare a résumé-building win and an early tone-setter for Tennessee’s 2024 season.– Lederman

Ceiling: 11-1|Floor:

6-6 Key game: vs. Tulane, Sept. 14 Oklahoma’s stiffest pre-SEC tune-up might well come when Tulane gos to Norman for the third time considering that 2017. Oregon quarterback transfer Ty Thompson and running back Makhi Hughes, the ruling AAC Rookie of the Year, need to evaluate the Sooners’ skilled defense, and a Green Wave defense that held challengers to 20.5 points per game will challenge first-year starter Jackson Arnold. A week before Tennessee sees to open SEC play, Oklahoma can’t ignore Tulane– it was just 3 years ago that the Green Wave nearly upset the Sooners in Norman.– Lederman

Ceiling: 10-2|Flooring:

5-7 Secret game: vs. South Dakota State, Aug. 31 Oklahoma State opens its 2024 campaign with a go to from ruling FCS national champion South Dakota State, the department’s top-ranked program in the FCS Coaches Survey. More vital games lie ahead for the Cowboys in the very first half of the season, with visits from Arkansas (Sept. 7) and Utah (Sept. 21) and a Sept. 28 trip to Kansas State, but the first difficulty to Oklahoma State’s CFP aspirations comes versus the Jackrabbits on the opening weekend of the regular season. Remember: The Cowboys suffered a 33-7 home loss to South Alabama last September before rolling to the Huge 12 title game.– Lederman

Ceiling: 11-1|Floor:

6-6 Key game: vs. Oklahoma State, Sept. 28 The Wildcats face a strong Arizona group Sept. 13, but it’s considered a nonconference game because it was set up in 2016. 2 weeks later on, K-State hosts Oklahoma State in what is most likely to be an early fight for conference supremacy. Both have made Big 12 championship game looks in the past two seasons, including Kansas State claiming the 2022 title. However the Wildcats have lost four of the past five meetings with the Cowboys.– Wilson

Ceiling: 11-1|Flooring:

6-6 Key game: at Florida, Aug. 31 The season opener versus Florida will offer a lot of immediate responses about Miami. Is Cam Ward as marketed? How huge a boost does Damien Martinez provide the run game? Will the secondary have enough depth? A win, and the hype train will continue to roll– particularly with a workable ACC schedule ahead (games against Virginia Tech and Florida State are at home). A loss, and there will be lots of questions about how the Canes respond progressing. It will be very important, however, to bear in mind that a nonconference loss here will not make or break Miami’s playoff hopes.– Adelson

Ceiling: 10-2|Flooring:

5-7 Secret game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31 You couldn’t draw up a more remarkable matchup for Mike Elko’s debut at Texas A&M. A Battling Irish team with serious CFP expectations, led by Elko’s previous Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, is concerning College Station for a prime-time showdown at Kyle Field. That’s as good as it gets for a signature success chance to kick off a new period for the Aggies.– Max Olson

Ceiling: 11-1|Floor:

5-7 Key game: at Kansas State, Sept. 13 Arizona will have a common sense of how it will stack up against the very best of the Huge 12 after going to Kansas State on Sept. 13. In a special twist, this game won’t count as a conference game because it has been on the books for several years– before the Wildcats signed up with the league.– Kyle Bonagura

Ceiling: 12-0|Flooring:

6-6 Key game: at Kansas State, Oct. 26 When your archrival has beaten you 15 straight times, as Kansas State has to Kansas, that game holds some psychic power over your season. The Jayhawks are a genuine Big 12 hazard, but before in 2015, the Wildcats had actually won the previous four conferences by a typical rating of 44-15, before Kansas lost an 11-point lead in a 31-27 heartbreaker last season. With a beneficial schedule that doesn’t include Utah, Oklahoma State or Arizona, the Sunflower Face-off looms big.– Wilson

Ceiling: 10-2|Floor:

4-8 Secret game: at Michigan, Sept. 21 In their very first game without Caleb Williams at quarterback, Lincoln Riley and USC will have a high task: beating a skilled LSU group at a neutral website to open the season. But the “welcome to the Big 10 minute” will come a few weeks later on when the Trojans head to the Big House to take on against the protecting champs Michigan.– Uggetti

Ceiling: 11-1|Flooring

: 6-6 Key game: vs. Tennessee, Sept. 7 No, the game versus Tennessee won’t make or break the season for NC State, thanks to the ensured playoff spot for the ACC champ. However the Tennessee game is crucial for two factors. The very first is it represents a major test for the Wolfpack’s new-look offense. If NC State can match the explosive Vols offense score-for-score, it will be a great indication that the Load are truly as hazardous as this unit searches paper. But practically as significant is the narrative this game will help set. Florida State and Clemson get the benefit of the doubt as blue bloods when it pertains to playoff positioning. NC State requires to put some evidence into its pudding. A win over Tennessee might be the résumé item required if the Wolfpack do not win the ACC but are jockeying for an at-large playoff bid.– Hale

Ceiling: 10-2|Flooring: 4-8

Key game: at Ohio State, Oct. 5

Without Any Penn State, Oregon, Michigan or USC on the schedule, the Hawkeyes own among the Big 10’s more favorable slates. The Hawkeyes do not need to knock off Ohio State to make it to the Huge 10 national championship. But an upset victory in Columbus could raise Iowa into prime position to make it to Indy, and possibly, the playoff.– Trotter