Betting the New Year’s 6 bowl games
Dec 29, 2023, 09:00 AM ET College football bowl season is in full swing, and we are surrounding the College Football Playoff championship game game. What is the best way to play the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines and the Sugar Bowl in between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies? Who will advance? What are the very best futures?Matt Miller and Kevin Pulsifer provide their ideas and wagering tips for the New Year’s 6 games and more.Odds by ESPN BET. For the most up-to-date lines, click here.Heading into the bowl season’s marquee games, what is your top pick to make in any of the
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Miller: Alabama +1.5. Choosing the Crimson Tide to cover after seeing them take apart Georgia is the easiest pick of the games. In truth, I believe Alabama wins by a minimum of one rating thanks to a penalizing defense the likes of which Michigan has not seen this year.Pulsifer: Sportsbooks aren’t moving the line far enough in the Georgia Bulldogs-Florida State Seminoles game. The Bulldogs lost one game all season, to an Alabama team that finally put everything together. They’re mostly healthy and not handling opt-outs. On the other hand, FSU is down over 20 players and its depth chart is barren. The projected starting QB had zero passing TDs and went 8-for-21 for 55 lawns versus Louisville. Their top running back has actually played 43 snaps all season, and their six-man pass receiver space has combined for 23 catches all year, with none of them choosing 10 catches or 100 yards this season.Florida State put up 16 points and went 2-for-16 on 3rd down with a much better lineup and real inspiration
versus an inferior opponent. Now the players have actually quit on the group, and the school has actually given up on the ACC. How is their indicated team total 13 points in this area? Hammer Georgia on the spread( -19 at -110)and perhaps sprinkle some on the alternate line at -26.5. Is there an upset pick that you like for this weekend?Miller: Besides Alabama over Michigan? Provide me the Wisconsin Badgers(+10.5 )to cover against the LSU Tigers. The Tigers will lack Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels in
this one, and I believe that could be the distinction. I won’t presume regarding pick Wisconsin to win, but a cover is realistic.Pulsifer: I’ll choose the Ole Miss Rebels here over the Penn State Nittany Lions in a fight between two-loss teams who just lost to elite groups(you might argue that Georgia, Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are the 4 best groups in the nation, but that’s for another day). If you’re dissecting these 2 teams, I think it’s quite clear that Ole Miss and Jaxson Dart have the much better offense, while the Nittany Lions have the much better defense, however Penn State is now down a defensive coordinator after Manny Diaz left for the Duke job. That might lead to some miscommunications, particularly versus a dual-threat QB such as Dart. Choose: Ole Miss +4.5(-110)or Ole Miss ML (+170). play 2:31 The numbers behind Texas and Washington’s CFP matchup Expense Connelly goes extensive on the match in between Texas and Washington as the two teams prepare for the Sugar Bowl.What game do you want no part of betting?Miller: Texas vs. Washington. I go back and forth on this game day-to-day thinking of the terrific matchups at several levels
on offense and defense for each group. Texas’offensive firepower vs. Washington’s offensive firepower will produce an extremely fun game. Which young secondary will step up, though? That’s why
I’m not touching this one.Pulsifer: I have no concept what to do with the
Oregon Ducks-Liberty Flames game. Oregon is plainly the better team, but how determined will they be? Liberty didn’t play a single Power 5 opponent in 2023, but last season beat Arkansas and lost by one to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest with the very same QB they have now. Liberty’s defense was suspect versus the actual worst-ranked strength of schedule in all of FBS– the Flames didn’t face a single top-80 FPI team– so, if required to choose, I ‘d most likely parlay an alternate spread and alternate group total( i.e. Oregon -12.5 and Oregon group overall over 37.5, if you can get that close to -110)… but I’m staying far from the spread and total.Which group is your preferred play to win the CFB Champion at existing odds (Michigan +185, Alabama +200, Texas +250, Washington +750)? Editor’s Picks 1 Related Miller: I’ll go Alabama.
The defense does not get enough love, as we all obsess over offending football. But let’s be real– Michigan hasn’t wowed anyone offensively and Alabama has more
protective skill(4 possible NFL first-rounders)and a better plan than anybody in the nation. Offering Nick Saban a month to get ready for your offense is a bad idea.Pulsifer: I’m with Matt here. Alabama improved considerably throughout the season, so it feels incorrect to depend on season-long numbers. We also have a history of Jim Harbaugh-led teams playing even worse after time off and Saban-led teams playing much better with additional time
to prepare
. The Wolverines offense isn’t dynamic adequate to flourish in this match. As for an exacta, I’ve been picking versus Washington all year and they keep proving me incorrect. The Longhorns are buoyed by their big win, but they played a lot of too-close-for-comfort games against(Kansas State, TCU, Houston, Iowa State ). It would not surprise me to see Michael Penix Jr. continue the Huskies’wonderful season into a CFP National championship berth. Pick: Alabama (+200), sprinkle on Alabama over Washington(+650). Final ideas: What is your top tip, reality or piece of recommendations you ‘d like to impart for anybody thinking about making a bowl bet?Miller: Inspect the player pull out before you bet! Teams like Oregon are mostly undamaged while others, like Florida State, have been rocked by pull out, transfers and NFL draft statements. Do not simply inspect the odds, check the lineups too.Pulsifer: Don’t be afraid to select the underdog to win outright. I went 5-5 in my choices short article last weekend, but the four underdogs I chose all won outright by 7-plus points. We always know that bowl games are unstable with the unknowns of transfers/opt-outs/etc., so while the spread might be the”average”outcome, it’s more likely that the last rating wanders off from the standard in both instructions. You can get terrific chances on the alternate spreads by in fact LAYING points with underdogs.