Buzz Trap Bet: When Iowa goes low, we go lower
“You’re tearing me apart, Lisa! “If you’ve seen the film The Space, you know that line all too well (if you haven’t, drop what you’re doing and go see it instantly. It will reshape everything you think you knew about cinema).
Before I saw the movie for the very first time, I didn’t understand how something that was described as so bad could be so excellent. But simply as all of us drive by an accident on the side of the road and decrease to see what’s going on, people are compelled and enchanted by things that are not “quality” or “excellent”. The Room has actually garnered such a cult following for exactly that reason.
“So bad that it’s great” might likewise explain the number of people felt enjoying the Iowa Hawkeyes handle the Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field last Saturday afternoon.At one point during
the week, the over/under had dropped to 29.5, which would have been a record low considering that ESPN started tracking FBS game totals over 25 years ago. The line got bet up to 32.5 by kickoff, however everyone knew we remained in shop for a rock battle. So, it came as not a surprise that the game was scoreless at halftime. I informed Field Yates “it’s worse than we could have imagined” to which he clarified that it remained in truth “better” than we might have imagined.AT THE HALF: Iowa 0
, Northwestern 0- 110 combined total lawns- 61 charge lawns
– 20.6 PPR dream points by all players integrated -Live over/under of 16.5- Drive list: punt, punt, Missed out onFG, punt, INT, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of half
— Kevin Pulsifer #SkyPulse (@imPULSEivity) November 4, 2023
Which’s kind of the point. If you tuned in expecting points, you’re going to be massively disappointed. If you tuned in knowing you were most likely visiting 3 scoring plays all game, really few first downs and great deals of punts, you remained in for a reward, and you could kick back and laugh together with the hilarity of it all.Guess what
! We get to do it all over again this weekend.Currently, the total for
Iowa-Rutgers is set at 28.5, which would yet once again be the lowest on record for an FBS game. The previous low was 30.5, achieved by Iowa-Minnesota previously this season(which broke the record that was held by last year’s Iowa-Minnesota game at 31.5 ). Most Affordable Game Overalls in FBS(Since 2000)Group Overall Iowa-Minnesota (2023)
30.5 | Iowa-Minnesota( | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
2022)31.5 Iowa-Kentucky ( | 2022 | |||
)31.5 Army-Navy (2022 ) | 32 Iowa-Northwestern(2023)32.5 Army-Air Force 32.5 >> | Iowa-Rutgers currently set at 28.5 So with Iowa | football being a cult favorite in the very same method The | Room |
is, it’s safe to say we might have | ||||
more eyeballs on this game then we probably should. However as a card-carrying member of the Sickos Committee, I feel it is my responsibility and my destiny to offer some betting guidance. Currently at ESPN BET, 73% of wagers on the overall for this game are on the under, regardless of it trending towards a record low. Can we take the under on a game where 16-13 is graded as a loss?Is it a trap? Rutgers at No. 22 Iowa(-1.5, 28.5)Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA On the gridiron, Iowa has actually been the furthest thing from pretty. It might often leave you paraphrasing Tommy Wiseau, stating”Do you comprehend football?! Do you ?!” Over the past2 seasons, unders in Hawkeye games are 22-6 (9-4 last |
season, 7-2 this season ). And despite the overalls dropping lower just recently, we’re still seeing a 4-game streak of unders.Iowa Game Overalls This Season Group Overall Combined Pts Utah State
43.5 38 Iowa State 35.5 33 Western Michigan 43.5 51 Penn State 38.5 31 Michigan State 36.5 42 Purdue 38.5 34 Wisconsin 33.5 21 Minnesota 30.5 22 Northwestern 32.5 17 >> Unders are 7-2 this season Iowa’s offense is painful
and sometimes irritating to
enjoy, scoring 18.4 PPG(the 3rd-lowest of any | |||
---|---|---|---|
Power 5 group | )and | averaging simply 225 | yards per game(35 fewer than any group in |
FBS). 24 various teams are doubling up Iowa’s yardage totals | and 14 teams | are doubling up the Hawkeyes’ | |
scoring output.But for something | this | extreme | |
to take place, it requires to be | apparent | ||
on both sides of the ball. To | quote Wiseau once again | ,”You can love defense deep inside your | |
heart, and there is nothing wrong with it. If a lot | |||
of individuals enjoyed defense, the world would be |
a much better location to live.”Kirk Ferentz’s squad likes defense more than Tommy enjoys saying”don’t worry about it “, holding challengers to the 4th-fewest PPG in the nation. Iowa has actually held challengers under 17 points in all but one game this season. The Hawkeyes are among 2 groups that are both scoring and enabling under 20 PPG (the other is Nebraska, who will deal with Iowa at noon the day after Thanksgiving– that definitely won’t be a slow, low-scoring affair ). Fewest PPG Allowed in FBS This Season Team Pts Permitted Michigan 6.7 Ohio State 10.7 Penn State 11.9 Iowa 13.7 If you saw the Northwestern game, another element of Iowa’s gameplan need to sell you on betting the under-rate of play. The game integrated for just 117 integrated plays, of which 82 were rushes. In the 4th quarter, Iowa operated on all 5 3rd downs they dealt with, including a 3rd-and-7, a 3rd-and-8, and a 3rd-and-16. Iowa’s goal is to get a lead and end the game as fast as humanly possible. Their 56% developed rush rate in conference play ranks fourth amongst Power 5 teams; Rutgers ranks seventh. I believe the characters in The Space threw a football further than Iowa does in a
typical game.So take the under. Perhaps wait up until the day
of and see if the line leaps up
again and
get
a better number. Then when Saturday afternoon occurs, get your spoons prepared,
relax and delight in Kirk Ferentz’
live-action adjustment of The Space, while rooting for it to be as bad(or as great)as it possibly can.Who understands, maybe afterwards we can all transport our inner Tommy and shriek”Iowa did not struck over, it did not! Oh, hi Mark. “The bets to make New York Jets(-1.5, 36.5 )at Las Vegas Raiders Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas This is another primetime game where we should not get our hopes up for points, and I’m going to lean into
it.Jets to punt on very first offending drive (-140 ). The Jets have actually played 8 games this season. They have punted on their opening drive seven times. They are balancing 1.4 lawns per play on their opening drive, 5 lawns per drive, and have only taped a first down in 3 games (among them coming through charge ). New York hasn’t even made clear midfield the first time they’ve had the ball.Editor’s Picks 1 Related Usually -140 is a lot of
juice to take, but this prop ought to be much closer to -200. Don’t worry about a Zach Wilson turnover either; he’s been so afraid to make a mistake that he’s simply taking sacks instead (26 over the last 6 games ). Wilson has simply one interception in the last
6 games, and 4 of his 5 choices have can be found in the fourth quarter when he’s required to make a play. On the opening drive, the Jets seem complacent to just play the field position game.
San Francisco 49ers(-3, 45.5 )at Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida At last, the crown jewel of the Week 10 slate. The only game where both teams have a winning record and the total is over 40. Trevor Lawrence longest pass under 34.5 backyards( -114)I’ll keep this one simple. The 49ers have actually just allowed 3 pass plays of 35+backyards this season in 8 games. On 2 of them, the DB dropped in protection. On the other hand, the Jaguars have 3 pass plays of 35-plus lawns this season in 8 games. One began a two-yard slant that Christian Kirk housed, and another began a wheel path to Travis Etienne Jr. where the safety attempted to jump the path rather than make a tackle.We have actually got a group that doesn’t desire
to push the ball downfield( Lawrence’s typical air yards/attempt ranks 26th in the NFL)versus a team that doesn’t
enable deep passing. A damaged play is the main method this bet would
go south.