CFP Anger Index: Is the committee actually neglecting
- David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 7, 2023, 08:23 PM ET Close ACC reporter.Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.There are 2 types of anger in any given walk of life. The very first is instant outrage, like when you get a look at the first College Football Playoff rankings and recognize the committee used one line of logic to Ohio State and another to Michigan and seemed totally unfazed by that appearing paradox.The second type is the long simmering furor that constructs with time, becoming even more illogical and indignant the longer it’s left untended– like your partner stopping working to hang the bathroom tissue roll the right way (loose end in front )or the committee leaving the top eight teams the same from week to week in spite of the previously mentioned paradoxical reasons even when we have actually calmly described its mistake and provided it ample time to change particularly when, say, Ohio State struggled against Rutgers or when Washington notched another solid win and– sorry, we blacked out for a minute there due to sheer outrage.Anyway, the second College Football Playoff rankings are upon us, and rather than rehash similar disappointments from a week previously in the middle of a reasonably unchanged leading 25, let’s dig much deeper, genuinely get in touch with our very ego, and release our hostilities upon the committee once again.
Let’s compare resumes for a moment.Team A: 9-0, No. 2 strength of record, No. 3 typical win possibility, No. 3 general offense in SP+ with wins over Nos. 4, 17 and 27 in SP +by an overall of 20 points.Team B: 9-0, No. 1 strength of record, No. 11 typical win probability, No. 3 total defense in SP+with wins over Nos. 5, 10 and 28 in SP +by an overall of 25 points.Pretty similar resumes, right?You most likely understand Team A is Washington, fresh off a double-digit win over USC that might have raised a warning or 2 about the Huskies’ defense.Team B, obviously, is Ohio State, fresh off a double-digit win over Rutgers
that may have raised a warning or two about the Buckeyes’offense.Editor’s Picks Do you lean Ohio State in between the two? We can see that. However would you say there’s a four-spot difference in between the two?Washington’s win over
the Trojans really helped the Huskies leapfrog Florida State in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, however it didn’t sway
the committee (the same committee that, inexplicably, thought USC was the No. 20 group in the nation just a week ago). Now here’s a fun what-if: Ohio State loses to Michigan in the regular-season finale in a close game, then kicks back and views as
Washington loses to Oregon by 10 in the Pac-12 title game.Who’s getting into the playoff? Two Pac-12 teams or more Big Ten teams?I believe we know the response to that.( And not even if all of them will remain in the Big Ten soon enough.
)In any other years, we ‘d be praising the committee for staying with its weapons and keeping big, bad Alabama listed below seven other teams, in spite of the fact that Alabama is, well, Alabama. Generally the committee’s chief obligation is to reverse engineer Alabama’s narrative, then rank accordingly. This year, it has actually afforded grace to each undefeated team, rewarded Oregon for playing Washington tough and beating Utah, and credited Texas for its head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide method back in Week 2. So, congratulations, right?This time, we actually believe maybe Alabama is being overlooked a bit.(Hey, you, stop tossing things at us! We’ll describe!)Yes, head-to-head needs to matter, and the reality is Texas beat Alabama. However that’s just part of the story. Alabama’s QB play has improved significantly considering that its loss to
Texas. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images That game came at a really precarious time for the Crimson Tide as they were still attempting to find out their QB situation. Well, if you viewed Jalen Milroe in recently’s 42-28 win over LSU, I believe we can officially say, issue solved.Or how about this comparison?Team A: 5 wins vs. Quad 1( i.e. leading 35 )teams in FPI, with
its only loss pertaining to a top-10 team Team B: 5 wins vs. Quad 1( i.e. leading 35 )groups in FPI, with its lone loss concerning a top-10 team.Clearly a great contrast … other than Group A is Alabama, and Team B is Oregon and Texas combined.Indeed, it’s almost been accepted as truth that Oregon is the
best one-loss team in the country, in spite of the reality the Ducks’ only excellent win came versus Utah, a group playing a security at tailback and a former walk-on at QB. The next-best product on their resume is a loss.Now take a look at Alabama: 14-point wins vs. No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 19 LSU.Moreover, simply consider the pattern line.
This, obviously, will be the fun of the 12-team playoff, when the most popular groups will have a real benefit in the postseason, however it’s worth appreciating now, too.If the playoff started tomorrow, and your favorite group was in, who’s the team you ‘d least want to play in the semifinal?We’ll wait,
however the answer is Alabama.It’s lovely clear everybody thinks Louisville has been fortunate to face a weak schedule, showed its real colors in an awful loss to Pitt, and is without question the worst of the one-loss teams.Well, the Cardinals did lose to Pitt, which’s a real blemish considering how bad the Panthers
have been. Never ever mind that Louisville really out-gained Pitt by almost 150 yards or that its finest offending weapon, running back Jawhar
Jordan, got hurt early on and had just two brings or that three turnovers were the real distinction in the game. It was still a bad loss.But how about the wins?That easy schedule really hasn’t been such a cakewalk. Louisville has five wins over Power 5 challengers with
a winning record. Ohio State is the only other team with as many. Louisville has 4 wins over Power 5 opponents 6-3 or much better. Just Oklahoma State Cowboys has as many. And those four wins over 6-3 (or much better)P5 enemies came over an average of 17 points.And Louisville ranks 18th in offending efficiency and 11th in defensive performance up until now this year. The only groups to rank greater in both? Florida State, Michigan and Ohio
State.Put some regard on the Cardinals
‘name.4. The Group of 5 Blame Flying Force for this one. Recently, the committee paid for the No. 25 area and the Falcons immediately spent 6 turnovers in a ruthless loss to Army. So, today, the only school from outside the Power 5 is Tulane at No. 23. Fresno State at 8-1 and winners of 17 of its past 18? Unranked.Liberty at 9-0 with one of the nation’s most underrated QB performances of the season?
Unranked.Toledo at 8-1 with its only loss coming on the roadway to Illinois in Week 1 by 2 points? Unranked.James Madison? Not even enabled to be ranked!And yet, here’s Iowa, whose game film is used to quell prison riots, checks in at No. 22. The Scarlet Knights have two quality losses
versus top-three groups.
If they were in the SEC, they ‘d be ranked 12th right now.