NCAA tournament wagering sneak peek: Houston favored, Purdue worst ATS group

Houston enters the NCAA tournament as the 6-1 betting preferred. The 6-1 odds are tied for the longest odds for a pretournament preferred considering that the field broadened to 64 groups in 1985. The four No. 1 seeds are the top 4 betting favorites, though the West appears filled. Four of the top nine favorites are all in the West.Odds to win

Championship game

Group	Odds	Region
Houston	+600	Midwest
Alabama	+700	South
Kansas	+1000	West
Purdue	+1000	East
Texas	+1200	Midwest
UCLA	+1200	West
Arizona	+1200	South
Gonzaga	+1500	West
UConn	+1500	West

It is the 4th time in that cover the favorite has been at least +550. Two of the previous 3 times, among the favorites won (Arkansas won at 7-1 in 1994; Villanova won as the +570 preferred in 2018). However, in 2014, Florida got in as the +550 favorite and we saw the greatest pretournament longshot cut down the nets since seeding started in 1979 (UConn: 95-1).

Longest Chances for Men’s Title Favorite

Year	Group	Chances	Result
2023	Houston	+600	!.?
.!?? 1994 North Carolina	+600	L, Round of 32
2018	Villanova	+570	Won title
2014	Florida	+550	L, National Semifinals

Houston went into the year tied for the third favorite behind Kentucky and North Carolina. Kentucky wound up getting a No. 6 seed while North Carolina didn’t even make the competition. Although Houston didn’t get in the season as the favorite, it moved from 10-1 to 8-1 to end up being the betting favorite just one game into the season, and it never ever relinquished its position as the wagering favorite.Preseason Favorites

to Win Championship Group Preseason Odds Seed Current Chances North Carolina

9-1 DNP!.?. !?? Kentucky 9-1 +600 L, Round of 32 Houston 10-1 +570 Won title Gonzaga 10-1 +550 L,

National Semifinals 7 of the previous 17 tournaments, the wagering favorite has actually gone onto win all of it(last: 2018 Villanova ). Favorites Entering NCAA Tournament Year Group Chances Reached 2022 Gonzaga +325 Sweet 16 2021 Gonzaga +200 Runner-up 2019

Duke +255 Elite 8 2018 Villanova +570 Won title 2017 North Carolina +535 Won title 2016 Kansas +485 Elite 8 2015 Kentucky +110 Final Four 2014 3 tied +550 Best: Final 4

2013	Louisville +450 Won	title(later abandoned)2012 Kentucky +185 Won title 2011 2 tied +400 Best	: Elite Eight 2010 Kansas
+175	Round of	32 2009 North Carolina +400 Won title 2008 UCLA +350 Final 4 2007 Florida +400 Won	title 2006 Duke +400 Sweet 16 2005	North Carolina +350 Won title
Twenty-two of the past 30 national champs had single-digit odds going into the
competition. The last group to	have	double-digit
chances	to win the	NCAA	competition
was Villanova in 2016	. No.	1 seeds have won 5 straight titles and 12 of	the past 15 titles.Favorites Going into NCAA Competition Year Team Chances 2022 1. Kansas
+900	2021 1. Baylor	+500 2019 1
. Virginia	+675 2018 1. Villanova	(favorites) +570 2017 1.
North Carolina(favorites)	+535	2016 2
. Villanova +1500 2015 1. Duke +1000 2014 7. UConn +9500 2013 1. Louisville
(favorites)+450 2012 1. Kentucky(	favorites)
+185	2011 3. UConn +2500 2010	1. Duke +650 Since seeding began in 1979, just 2 champs had longer than 30-1 odds (1985 Villanova and 2014 UConn), and just one team had longer	than	40-1 chances(

2014 UConn). Most Significant Longshots to Win NCAA Competition Year Group Odds 2014 UConn 95-1 1985 Villanova 35-1 2011 UConn 25-1 1983 NC State 25-1 2006 Florida 20-1 1988 Kansas 20-1 2003 Syracuse 18-1 1997 Arizona 18-1 2016 Villanova 15-1 No. 5 seed Duke is down to 20-1 after winning the ACC competition

. That is the fastest chances of any team seeded

fifth or lower in the last 15 NCAA tournaments.Shortest Odds
Entering Tournament for 5	seed
or lower Year Group Chances Reached	2023
5. Duke 20-1	!.?. !? 2010 5.
Michigan State 25-1 Runner-up 2013 5. Wisconsin 28-1 Round
of 64	2022 5. Houston 30-1 Elite 8 2022 5. Iowa 30-1 Round of	64 2018 5. Kentucky 30-1 Sweet 16 2009
6. UCLA	30-1 Round of 32 2008 5.	Clemson 30-1 Round of 64 Historical upsets UMBC is
the only No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed	, however
the biggest upset in the 64-team age(because 1985	)is by Norfolk State(	+21.5)over Missouri in 2012. Largest NCAA Tournament Disturbs Given That	1985 Year Team	Spread Lost 2012

15. Norfolk State +21.5 2. Missouri 2018 16. UMBC +20.5 1. Virginia 1993 15. Santa Clara +20 2. Arizona 2022 15. Saint Peter’s +18.5 2. Kentucky 1997 15. Coppin State +18.5 2. South Carolina 2001 15. Hampton +17.5 2.

Iowa	State 1986	14. Little
Rock	+17.5	3. Notre Dame Last year, Saint Peter’s managed 3 straight upsets as
at least eight-point	underdogs
, beating Kentucky in the	round of 64
(+18.5), Murray State in the round of 32
(+8)	and Purdue in	the Sugary food 16(+13
). The Purdue upset connected the largest upset after the first	weekend.Biggest Upsets By Round Given That 1985 Round Match Year
Rd of	64 Norfolk	St(+21.5)

over Missouri 2012 Rd of 32 Rhode Island(+12.5)over Kansas 1998 Sweet 16 Saint Peter’s( +13)over Purdue 2022 Indiana (+13)over Duke 2002 Elite 8 VCU (+11.5) over Kansas 2011 Last Four Duke(+9.5 )over UNLV 1991 Champion UConn (+9.5 )over Duke 1999

Noteworthy first-round lines One double-digit seed is currently favored in its first-round match	, as Utah	State is a 1-point favorite over Missouri. It is the 11th time in the past 12 competitions that at least one double-digit seed	is preferred in the round of	64
(just exception: 2019). Double-digit seeds that are preferred in the round of 64 are 14-5	straight-out and 12-7 ATS in	the previous
10 NCAA tournaments(2012-22). Point Spreads for	10-13 Seeds 10
Seeds 11 Seeds 12 Seeds 13 Seeds Utah State(-1	)Providence
(+4)	Drake(+2.5	)Kent State(+4)Boise State

(+1.5)NC State(

+5.5 )VCU(+4 )Furman( +5.5)USC (+2 )Charleston (+5)Louisiana( +10.5)Penn State( +3) Oral Roberts (+6.5) Iona( +9)Indiana is just a 4-point favorite over Kent State

. No. 4 seeds favored by four or less points versus No. 13 seeds are 1-3

straight-out considering that 2000 . Smallest Spreads in 4-13 Matchup

given that 2000 Year Team Spread Challenger Result 2022 4. Providence -2.5 13. South Dakota State Won 2010 4. Vanderbilt -2.5 13. Murray State Lost 2003 4. Dayton -2.5 13. Tulsa Lost 2023 4. Indiana -4 13. Kent State!.?. !? 2019 4. Kansas State -4 13. UC Irvine Lost Marquette is the tiniest favorite for any No. 2 seed considering that 2015. Texas( -13.5)and Arizona( -14) are likewise relatively small favorites for 2-seeds. In general, the four 2-seeds are favored by an average of 14.1 points, which is the smallest average

spread for No. 2 seeds given that 2006(-12.9). Smallest Spreads for 2 vs. 15 Given that 2013 Year Group Opponent Spread Covered? 2015 Kansas New Mexico State -10 Yes 2023 Marquette Vermont -13.5!.?. !? 2023 Texas New Mexico State -13.5!.?. !? 2021 Iowa Grand Canyon -13.5 No 2016 Xavier Weber State -13.5 Yes 2013 Georgetown( lost outright

)Florida Gulf Coast -14 No 2023 Arizona Weber State -14!.?. !? 2018 Cincinnati Georgia State -14 Yes 2014

Kansas Eastern Kentucky -14 No 2014 Wisconsin American -14 Yes 2013 Miami Pacific -14 Yes As for the No. 3

seeds, Kansas State is the smallest preferred, laying 8.5 points versus Montana State. Given that 2015, No.

3 seeds that are single-digit favorites are 2-5 ATS with three outright losses.Shortest Chances to Win Women’s Basketball Championship Year Team Chances Won Title? 2016 UConn -900 Yes 2018 UConn -600 No 2017 UConn -450 No 2015 UConn -450 Yes 2023 South Carolina -180!. ?.!? Seed match notes 1 vs. 16 2 vs. 15 In the previous 10 competitions(

2012-22 ), No. 15 seeds are 6-34 straight-out against No. 2 seeds, including back-to-back years with an upset. In 2015, Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky and in 2021, Oral Roberts beat Ohio State. Saint Peter’s reached the Elite Eight and Oral Roberts reached the Sweet 16.3 vs. 14 No. 3 seeds are 8-4 ATS against No. 14 seeds over the previous three tournaments.In the previous 5 tournaments, No. 3 seeds are 19-1 outright versus No. 14 seeds(only upset: 2021 Abilene Christian beat Texas).4 vs. 13 No. 13 seeds are 12-4 ATS against No. 4 seeds over the past 4 tournaments.Last year, all

four No. 4	seeds won	for the very first time given that 2017.
From 2018-21, 4-seeds were just 7-5 outright.5 vs. 12 Given that 2013, No. 12 seeds are	22-13-1 ATS against No. 5
seeds (2-2 ATS	in each of the past two seasons )	. A minimum of one No.
12 seed has won outright in the preliminary in 32 of the 37 seasons given that the tournament broadened in 1985(	exceptions: 2018		, 2015, 2007, 2000, 1988 )	. No. 12 seeds are 8-4 ATS

and 6-6 outright in this round in the previous 3 competitions.6 vs. 11 Considering that 2009, No. 11 seeds are 33-19 ATS against No. 6 seeds (27-25 straight-out ).

Since 2016, No. 11 seeds are 14-10 straight-out and 16-8

ATS versus 6-seeds	. A minimum of one No. 11 seed has won a round of 64 game in 17 straight competitions(last time without win: 2004

). Numerous 11 seeds have actually won a round of 64 game in 10 of the past 12 tournaments.7 vs. 10 8 vs. 9 Conference notes ACC teams are 15-34 ATS

in the round of 64 given that 2015. Big Ten groups are 45-29 ATS in the round of 64 given that 2011. The Mountain West is 0-7 ATS in the round of 64 in the previous 3 competitions. It is 7-19 ATS because 2011 and 3-12 ATS since 2014. Mountain West teams are 6-15 ATS

as favorites in the round of 64 and 8-19 ATS as favorites in any round (12-15 straight-out). Mountain West favorites are 0-5 straight-out since 2018 in any round(0-4 in round of 64 ). The MAC has covered 6 straight round of 64 games with three wins in the previous 4 years. MAC groups are 17-7 ATS in the round of 64 because 1999. ASUN groups are 6-2 ATS

in the round of 64 given that 2014(0-2 ATS past	2 seasons)	. Huge Sky teams are 3-12 ATS in the first round	considering that 2007	, 2-9 ATS considering that 2011, and 1-6 ATS given that	2015. Horizon League groups are 2-7	ATS in the round of 64 considering that	2012. Conference ATS over the previous five tournaments No. 1 seeds and No. 2 seeds ATS in opening	games	Nos. 11-14 seeds straight up and ATS previous 10	and past 5 Big	12 ATS	past 5 years and	directly ATS: 44-38-1(53.7%)Outright: 53-30(63.9%)– Kyle Soppe Coaching notes(all for NCAA tournament)Significant great coaches ATS Andy Enfield(USC): 10-2 ATS( 9-1 ATS as underdog)	Sean Miller(Xavier): 18-11-1 ATS	(.621)(	8-1 ATS as underdog	)Matt Painter(
Purdue): 19-12 ATS(.613)(	11-3 ATS in round of 64)Jeff Capel(	Pittsburgh): 5-2 ATS(4-0 ATS	as	preferred )Johnny Jones(	Texas Southern)
: 5-2	ATS Cent Hardaway(Memphis):	2-0	ATS
Chris Jans	(Mississippi State): 3-1 ATS Notable bad coaches ATS

Jamie Dixon (TCU): 9-17 ATS(.346 )Rick Barnes (Tennessee): 19-29-1 ATS(.396)( 16-25-1 ATS as preferred)Eric Musselman( Arkansas): 4-8-1 ATS Bobby Hurley(Arizona State): 1-3 ATS Randy Bennett(Saint Mary’s): 5-8 ATS(3-2 ATS as preferred, 2-6 ATS as underdog )Noteworthy divides Bob

Huggins(West Virginia):	27-18 ATS as favorite, 3-10-1 ATS
as underdog.Shaka Smart(Marquette)	1-6 ATS previous 7 games(
begun career 8-1 ATS).1 -3 ATS as preferred, 8-3 ATS as underdog, 0-1 as choice	’em. Fran McCaffery(	Iowa): 7-4 ATS
as underdog, 1-5 ATS as favorite.Shaka Smart(Marquette)has lost six straight
first-round matches, consisting of going 0-4 considering that he left VCU. He is 1-6 ATS in his previous seven NCAA tournament games after beginning his profession 8-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament.Best/ worst ATS teams in field Fifteen groups in the field have covered at least 60%of their games this season, led by Pittsburgh, which has the second-highest ATS mark in Department I.Pittsburgh: 22-10-1 ATS(.688)Florida Atlantic: 21-10-1 ATS(.677 )Kennesaw State: 21-10 ATS(.677 )Texas A&M: 23-11 ATS (.676 )Kent State: 20-10-2 ATS(.667 )Marquette: 22-12 ATS(.647)Kansas State: 20-11-1 ATS(.645)UC Santa Barbara: 20-11-1 ATS (.645)UConn: 21-12 ATS(.636) Utah State: 21-12-1 ATS( .636)Nevada: 19-11-1 ATS(.633)Maryland: 20-12-1 ATS (.625 )Penn State: 21-13-1 ATS (.618 )Montana State: 19-12-1 ATS(.613)Vermont: 19-12-1 ATS(.613 )On the flip side, there is only one group in the field that has actually covered less than 60% of its games this season– Purdue( 13-20-1 ATS,.394 ). Notable BPI values Houston Cougars( No. 1 seed-Midwest ) +600 to win NCAA tournament( BPI opportunity: 31.6%) -270 to reach Sugary food 16 (BPI opportunity: 84.7 %) +130 to win Midwest Area (BPI chance: 58.1% )Tennessee Volunteers(No. 4 seed- East) 25-1 to win NCAA tournament(BPI opportunity: 13.2% )-130 to reach Sweet 16 (BPI chance: 76.0% )+400 to win East Area(BPI possibility: 41.7 %) 10.5-point favorites vs. Louisiana(BPI line: 18.0)Alabama Crimson Tide(No. 1 seed-South) +700 to win NCAA tournament( BPI chance: 17.5% )-260 to reach Sugary food 16 (BPI possibility: 79.7%) +160 to win South Region(BPI opportunity: 49.9%)UCLA Bruins (No. 2 seed-West) South Carolina heavy favorite on ladies’s side Conference ATS (over previous five tourneys )Conference Cover%ATS W ATS L Press Pac-12 63.3 %31 18 Big-12 53.7% 44 38 1 Big East 52.8 %28 25 Big 10 48.8%41 43 ACC 46.7%42 48 1 SEC 43.8%32 41 2 South Carolina is the 5th odds-on preferred to win the ladies’s basketball championship in the previous eight competitions. The last 2 both lost as UConn failed to win in 2018 or 2017 as -600 and -450 favorites respectively.