From 13-0 to 1-9: How historically bad has Florida State’s

Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterNov 19, 2024, 10:40 AM ET Close Costs Connelly is a personnel writer for ESPN.com.It was simple to wonder if there may be a little bit of a hangover this season. Mike Norvell weathered a strange, stair-stepping reach success with Florida State– his Seminoles went 3-10 in his very first 13 games, then 9-6 in the next 15, then won 19 in a row– but endured one of the most gut-wrenching season finishes you’ll ever see. First, the unbeaten Noles were snubbed out of an area in the last four-team College Football Playoff; then, with a variety of beginners having either pulled out or chose season-ending surgical treatment, they got completely embarrassed 63-3 by Georgia in the Orange Bowl.Norvell stated all the proper things in spring ball, and in spite of 14 new starters, his reputation for finding difference-makers in the transfer website got FSU ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll. But rather of a hangover, or a slow start, his Noles have entirely no-showed in 2024. Florida State’s win portion has fallen by 82.9 percentage points at the minute, from

0.929 to 0.100. In the history of top-division college football, there have been 14,788 groups; only 3 have had their win percentage fall by more than that, and 2 played during World War I: 1917 Colorado State (from 6-0-1 to 0-7-1), 1919 Colorado Mines( from 4-0 to 0-4-2)and 2012 Southern Miss( from 12-2 to 0-12). The Seminoles are most likely to finish 2-10, beating Charleston Southern this coming weekend and after that losing to rival Florida. Those results would drop them to simply the eighth-largest win portion collapse ever, behind 4 more groups from 1950 or earlier.If you choose sophisticated stats, FSU has actually likewise cratered by that procedure: The Seminoles completed ninth in SP +last season but are currently 92nd.

In regards to percentile ratings, they have actually fallen from 94.1 %to 33.0 %. Given, there’s still a sliver of friendly preseason projections affecting the existing scores, so the Noles might fall even further over the last number of games, but that 61.1 % drop is still the 40th largest on record and the 4th biggest of the 2000s behind 2018 Louisville(from 87.8%to 15.1 %), 2012 Southern Miss(from 73.1%to 4.5 %)and 2009 Ball State(from 75.6 %to 12.5%). Like FSU with Jordan Travis, all 3 of those 21st century peers lost star quarterbacks from development teams– Southern Miss lost Conference USA-winning Austin Davis, Ball State lost Nate Davis and Louisville lost Heisman winner Lamar Jackson– and both BSU(Brady Hoke)and Southern Miss (Larry Fedora)had lost their respective head coaches to larger jobs. Louisville, meanwhile, ended the Bobby Petrino period 10 games into 2018, as his Cardinals kept becoming worse and worse.Norvell isn’t a first-year coach, and by all accounts it appears he will keep his job into 2025, even if it has actually needed the jettisoning of assistants. I like turning to the history books to get a concept for what might take place in the future, however this one’s difficult: When a team collapses with this level of force, it’s usually at either the start or end of a coach’s tenure (or, in the case of Southern Miss’Ellis Johnson in 2012, both ). Acknowledging both the originality of the coaching circumstance and the seriousness of the fall, nevertheless, I did discover 10 reasonably good comps. Here are 10 postwar, major-conference groups(or significant independents)that(

a)collapsed by at least 50.0%in terms of both SP+percentile rating and win percentage, (b)did so with a coach that was not in his very first season and (c)kept that coach for the following season. How long did it take each program to rebound? Did it take place under the same coach? Let’s take a look. 1946 Oklahoma State Head coach: Jim Lookabaugh(eighth year)Modification in record: from 9-0 to 3-7-1 Modification in SP +ranking:

from seventh to 82nd What happened: Like Mike Gundy, Lookabaugh was

a former OSU player who thrived as the

Cowboys ‘head coach. In 1944-45, they went 17-1, winning a Cotton Bowl and a Sugar Bowl and claiming a share of the 1945 national title. However in the postwar years, his program fell back to where it was prewar. Following their collapse in 1946, they went 3-7 again in 1947 before rebounding to go 6-4 with a Delta Bowl quote– they lost 20-0 to William & Mary– in 1948. Following a 4-4-2 season in 1949, Lookabaugh retired and moved into real estate.The Cowboys’ next great season: 1953. Jennings Whitworth led the Pokes to a 7-3 campaign and parlayed that into the Alabama task a year later. 1956 Notre Dame Head coach: Terry Brennan (3rd year )Modification in record: from 8-2 to 2-8 Change in SP+ ranking: from 12th to 84th What occurred: A star halfback for Notre Dame in the postwar years, Brennan was hurried into the head-coaching role at age 25 following Frank Leahy’s health-related retirement. He guided

the ship well for a while, going 17-3 in

1954-55, but things fell apart throughout an enormous youth motion in 1956( albeit one in which Paul Hornung still won the Heisman). The growing pains produced improvement in the coming years, and Notre Dame was talented enough to end Oklahoma’s well known 47-game winning streak with a 7-0 upset in 1957 and complete 10th in the AP poll. But for one of the most part, the Irish were merely strong in 1957-58, beating bad teams, mostly losing to excellent ones and going 13-7 general. Brennan was fired with a 32-18 record and replaced by NFL coach Joe Kuharich, who went simply 17-23. The Combating Irish’s next good season: 1964. Granted, 1957 was pretty good under Brennan, but the Irish were mediocre for quite a few years under Kuharich and Hugh Devore before first-year coach Ara Parseghian engineered a 9-1 charge and No. 3 AP finish in 1964. They would win the nationwide title two years later on

. 1960 SMU Head coach: Bill Meek( 4th year) Modification in record: from 5-4-1 to 0-9-1 Modification in SP +ranking: from 34th to 91st What happened: After landing his very first head-coaching job at age 30, Costs Meek was 36 when he took over at SMU

in 1957, with the group less than a decade eliminated from back-to-back top-10 finishes. Led by Dandy Don Meredith

‘s death, the Mustangs finished 18th in the AP poll in 1958, and they started 1959 ranked 4th. However they went just 5-4-1 versus a harsh schedule (they were 1-4 versus ranked opponents ), then totally collapsed in 1960 following Meredith’s graduation.Meek stayed for 1961 but went simply 2-7-1 and carried on to front workplace roles with the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. SMU changed him with Hayden Fry.The Mustangs’next great season: 1966. Fry’s period started with 4 straight losing seasons, however he brought the Mustangs back to the Cotton Bowl, with a No. 10 AP surface, in Year 5.

1961 Illinois Head coach: Pete Elliott (second year

)Change in record: from 5-4 to 0-9 Modification in SP+ ranking: from 36th to 103rd Editor’s Picks 2 Associated What occurred: An All-America quarterback at Michigan, Elliott led Cal to the Rose Bowl in

1958 before returning to the Huge 10 to prosper Ray Eliot in 1960.

Eliot had actually gone simply 32-35-5 because a Rose Bowl bid in 1951, and Elliott went just 5-4 in his very first season before an absolute collapse in Year 2. He was constructing something, though. After going just 2-7 in 1962, a skilled Illini squad led by All-Americans Cock Butkus and Archie Sutton charged to 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl. They were above.500 in 1964 and’ 65, too, however Elliott resigned in 1967 when Illinois ended up being embroiled in a slush fund scandal.The Illini’s next good season: 1963. The Illini beat two top-five teams (Northwestern and Michigan State )and topped Washington 17-7 in the Rose Bowl. This collapse actually had a happy ending of sorts. As long as you ignore that whole”slush fund “thing. 1985 Boston College Head coach: Jack Bicknell(5th year) Modification in record: from 10-2 to 4-8 Change in SP +ranking: from 11th to 62nd What occurred: We have actually heard a lot about the”Flutie effect” through the years, where a school that delights in unexpected

football success sees

a burst of notoriety, greater application rates

and so on. The initial results of losing

Flutie, however, weren’t excellent for Boston College

. Following Flutie’s Heisman run and BC’s 10-win campaign and top-five surface in 1984, the Eagles rapidly fell back to earth with poor Shawn Halloran behind center in 1985. After a wobbly 3-3 start, they lost 5 in a row and finished 4-8. BC started 1986 in bad kind once again, starting just 1-3, however Halloran and the Eagles won 8 straight from there, ultimately beating Georgia 27-24 in the Hall of Fame Bowl.The Eagles’next good season: 1986. The rebound was speedy. It was also short-lived. Bicknell would balance just 3.5 wins over the next four seasons and, in 1991

, he moved on to become head coach of the World League of American Football’s Barcelona Dragons, and in 1992-93 the Eagles rose briefly under Tom Coughlin. 1991 Louisville Head coach: Howard Schnellenberger(seventh year )Modification in record: from 10-1-1 to 2-9 Change in SP+ranking: from 32nd to 103rd What happened: I’m consisting of Louisville here despite the fact that there was absolutely nothing”significant”about the Cardinals program before

Schnellenberger

obtained it. They had ended up ranked just as soon as– they went 9-1 under Lee Corso in 1972 and finished 18th as

part of the Missouri Valley– but completed under.500 every year from 1979-87. After going 14-8 under Schnellenberger in 1988-89, however, they charged to 10-1-1 and walloped No. 25 Alabama 34-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was an amazing structure job, but with quarterback Browning Nagle off to the pros and replacement Jeff Brohm injured early in the season, the Cardinals broke down in 1991. They would rebound to 5-6 with a healthy Brohm in 1992, then broke through the following season.The Cardinals’ next great season: 1993. Brohm threw for 2,626 lawns(a good number for the day), and the Cardinals upset No. 23 Arizona State as part of a 7-1 start. They capped a 9-3 season with an 18-7 comeback win over Michigan State in the Liberty Bowl. Schellenberger would leave for Oklahoma a year later on. 1998 Washington State Head coach: Mike Cost(10th year )Modification in record: from 10-2 to 3-8 Change in SP+ranking: from 14th to 71st What happened: Mike Cost built a cyclical power in Pullman. The Cougars would gradually grow as a roster core grew, break through with a specific level of experience and after that begin over once again. However, following the success of quarterback Ryan Leaf &

Co. in 1997– Wazzu won 10 games, reached the Rose Bowl for just the second time and ended up in the AP top 10 for the very first time– it took a little while to put the pieces back together. The Cougs went just 10-24 from 1998-2000. But Rate’s next amazing quarterback, Jason Gesser, led a charge starting in 2001. The Cougars ‘next good season: 2001. The Cougs began 7-0, lost just to Oregon and Washington, both ranked, and beat Purdue 33-27 in the Sun Bowl. Both Gesser and Wazzu would raise their game further the next year, winning 10 games, reaching the Rose Bowl and ending up in the AP top 10 for the second of 3 straight seasons. (The 3rd season would occur without Rate, who left for an unfortunate stint at Alabama.) 2007 Notre Dame Head coach: Charlie Weis(third year)Modification in record: from 10-3 to 3-9 Modification in SP+ranking: from 26th to 87th What occurred: Congratulations to Notre Dame, the only group to show up on this list twice.Capital One Bowl Mania

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Following a remarkable 19-4 start as

Irish head coach, Charlie Weis’2nd season ended up in disappointing style with blowout losses against both No. 3 USC and No. 4 LSU. Notre Dame

lost eight offensive beginners, consisting of quarterback Brady Quinn( who was replaced by real freshman Jimmy Clausen), and Weis replaced protective coordinator Rick Minter with Corwin Brown. The outcome: a historical collapse.Like 2024 FSU, Notre Dame began the season 1-9, a run that included the Irish’s very first loss to Navy given that 1963. Notre Dame lost to 3 ranked opponents by a combined 96-24, and late-season wins over dire Duke and Stanford teams just redeemed things so much. They would improve in the list below seasons, however only to 7-6 and 6-6, and Weis was disposed at the end of 2009. The Battling Irish’s next good season: 2012. Brian Kelly replaced Weis and went 8-5 in each of his first two seasons before a skilled team, led by a strong offensive line and all-world linebacker Manti Te’o, went 12-0 in the regular season and reached the BCS national championship. It was the very first of 4 top-10 seasons for Kelly in South Bend.

2021 Northwestern Head coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16th year )Change in record: from 7-2 to 3-9 Change in SP+ranking: from 31st to 101st What happened: Like Mike Price, Pat Fitzgerald was successful in cycles. Between 2011 and 2019, Northwestern integrated 4 losing records with four seasons of nine or more wins, and they likely would have won 9 or more with a full season’s work in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season too. They went 6-1 and received the Big Ten national championship, where they led Ohio State late in the 3rd quarter before giving in 22-10. A Citrus Bowl win capped

the school’s first top-10 surface in 25 years.In 2021, however, the Wildcats went into the season with the nation’s most affordable returning production. It revealed. The defense went from great to decent, and the offense went from second-rate to horrendous. NU would go simply 4-20 over the next two seasons, then Fitzgerald was fired for off-field reasons.The Wildcats’next excellent season: 2023. It didn’t turn out to be a sustainable dish– Northwestern is right back to 4-6 this season with only a 5%opportunity of winning out to reach bowl eligibility, per SP +– but under interim coach David

Braun, the Wildcats went 6-2 in one-score finishes to reach 8-5 general. That’s not as good as Fitzgerald’s finest years, however it was still a seven-win enhancement over the previous season. 2021 Indiana Head

coach: Tom Allen (5th year )Change in record: from 6-2 to 2-10 Change in SP+ ranking: from 18th to 94th What happened: After an 8-5 campaign in 2019, their finest season in 26 years, Tom Allen’s Hoosiers took another step forward in 2020, going 6-1 in the COVID-abbreviated regular season, losing only a tight game versus unbeaten Ohio State and technically earning an area in the Big 10 national championship before an emergency situation rule modification left them out.Michael Penix Jr. was fantastic up until tearing his ACL in the sixth game, and the Hoosiers ended up the season with a bowl loss against

Ole Miss. Penix returned in 2021, but he was rusty

and irregular, and he suffered another season-ending injury in early October. After a 2-2 start, Indiana lost 8 straight games. Allen could never ever right the ship, going just 7-17 in 2022-23, his last two seasons in charge.The Hoosiers’next good season: 2024. A training modification(to Curt Cignetti)and a roster flip have totally reversed IU’s fortunes.

The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time; they are a modern turn-around story in regards to simply how much you can change in a brief amount of time.(The modifications aren’t guaranteed to work– just ask 2024 Florida State– however there are brand-new chances on the table now.)Obviously a workout like this is more anecdotal than clinical. Both collapses and rebounds are potentially easier, for much better or worse, in an era with greater roster flexibility

and prospective turnover, and even if it took Hayden Fry a while to get SMU going once again in the 1960s does not always suggest much for Mike Norvell.Still, from the old”history does not repeat itself, however it does rhyme “viewpoint, it is possibly notable that of the 10 teams above, only one rebounded right away (1986 Boston College), however six had gotten better within three years, including 6 of the seven newest examples. Only 4 of those 6

quick rebounds happened with the very same coach in charge, and each of the two examples from this decade reversed right away with a new coach. Even Louisville, which fell apart so thoroughly to the ground in Bobby Petrino’s final season, bounced straight back to 8-5 the next season under Scott Satterfield.Florida State most likely isn’t going to be this horrendously dreadful for long, in other

words. It was nearly impossible for this to happen as soon as– this really is among the best collapses this very old sport has ever seen– and it probably will not take place once again. However the odds of a complete rebound under Norvell aren’t terrific either. He will bring brand-new assistants and, probably, another large transfer class to Tallahassee in 2025, but the collapse exposed a level of fragility within the program that may ultimately require a head-coaching modification to entirely fix.