College Football Playoff: Five concerns for the committee

• Heather Dinich, ESPN

  • Senior WriterJun 20, 2024, 08:00 AM ET Close College football
  • reporter Signed up with ESPN.com in 2007
  • Graduate of Indiana University

When the College Football Playoff was presented more than a years ago, and the sport’s champion progressed from 2 to four groups, even the system’s developers could not respond to a few of the concerns that emerged– or they had a heckuva time trying.What was the value

of winning a conference title when 2 SEC groups could be in and 2 Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you determine a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength stemmed from the perceived strength of a competitor’s own conference?When the 12-team CFP is revealed this fall, it will once again be a learning curve for everybody– fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s job– and its procedure– stays mostly the same, but an extraordinary 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best groups in the country.In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will ensure playoff spots for the 5 highest-ranked conference champions, here are 5 questions for the committee. 1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?Losing isn’t something the leading national title contenders are used to– but even some coaches expect that to alter, and it might make things tricky in the committee conference room.The committee has actually

historically rewarded teams that play tougher challengers, holding wins against CFP leading 25 teams in high regard. With the Big 10 expanding to 18 groups and the SEC to 16, however, some CFP contenders now have a

more difficult course to their own championship game game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it much more difficult for those particular leagues to produce undefeated and even one-loss conference champions.According to ESPN Statistics & Information, because 2014, 14 of the 20 groups that participated in the SEC national championship had one or no losses. During that same amount of time, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.Editor’s Picks 2 Related Now?According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, just 3 groups

have at least a 10 % opportunity to complete the regular season undefeated(Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia ), and none have more than a 20 %possibility to go 12-0. The only other time throughout the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% possibility to complete undefeated was 2016, and Alabama

was the only Power 5 team to complete 12-0 that year.What will that indicate at Choice Central when groups from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared to competitors from the ACC and Huge 12– groups with much better records but against less ranked challengers?”Do I think there’s going to be teams with several losses in the playoff? Yes, most definitely there is, “said Georgia coach Kirby Smart.”How do you distinguish? I’ll leave that to the

committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football groups get left out. Ultimately, everybody has an opportunity to go out on the grass and carry out and play and make the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get overlooked that probably should not. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was most likely 3 times I thought we were one of the best 4 teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”2. How many teams from the SEC and Big 10 will fill the bracket?Using last year’s last CFP ranking with conference adjustment for 2024, the Big 10 and SEC would have integrated for 10 of the 12 spots.SEC champ Alabama would have been in together with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Huge Ten champ Michigan would have been signed up with by Washington(the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the 5 highest-ranked conference champions. Probably those will generally

include the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State(ACC), Michigan (Big 10 ), Alabama(SEC ), Texas( Big 12, now in the SEC )and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the greatest ranked G5 winner ). How frequently will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives? 3. How difficult will it be

to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 groups with the No. 1 group looming?The 4 highest-ranked conference champs will make a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the greater seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the very best group in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about– either purposely or unconsciously– as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?Remember, these games will be used Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which might be very cold on some campuses– especially in the Big 10.(According to

Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.

)Just how much of an advantage may that be if they are hosting a team from the South?Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage since of its smaller size and area. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Huge Ten champ Michigan.4. What will the requirements be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?Last year, the choice committee’s most questionable ranking outside of the top 4 was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which ensured the Flames an area in the Feast Bowl. Liberty made the Group of 5’s coveted quote to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 challenger. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the simplest schedule in the country in 2015(No. 133) entering the postseason. 8 of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents ended up with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25. Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned an area in

the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion,

and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s choice an anomaly in 2015? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Leading 25? Top stories of the week from Get special access to thousands of premium posts a year from leading writers. – Grading every NFL group’s offseason”- Here’s the code the Celtics lastly cracked” – CFB conference previews: Start now!”More ESPN+ material”In the four-team playoff, even the very best Group of 5 champs faced a nearly difficult standard to reach the CFP

— an unbeaten record that consisted of wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only group to reach a CFP semifinal in the years of the four-team playoff.The requirements for reaching the 12-team field will be extremely scrutinized because of the possibility that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will bump out a strong competitor at No. 12. Remember, It’s

not the committee’s top 12 groups. It’s the 5 highest-ranked conference champs plus the next 7 highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the leading 12, the unlucky 12th group will be snubbed to include it.If the fifth champ is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then reveal the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion together with the Leading 25. Liberty once again doesn’t deal with any Power 4 challengers. Will it matter? 5. How will the playoff course modification for independents?It’s not simply Notre Dame that will be affected by the brand-new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 championship game to play in.If any of those schools receive the 12-team field, they can’t make a first-round bye due to the fact that they can’t complete as one of the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. They would play a first-round game and require to win four straight games to win the national title.In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were currently in the top 4 heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, however, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame needed to sit and wait and hope for

assistance while everyone else was competing.Now?The Irish must be in generally if they end up with no more than one– perhaps two– losses, depending upon their

schedule, results and how everybody else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee challengers, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and prevent upsets to Marshall.Oregon State’s finest opportunity will be Sept. 14 versus competing Oregon, as most of the Beavers ‘challengers are Mountain West Conference groups through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the previous Pac-12 groups need to leave no doubt they’re playoff

material versus unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.